please sir, may i have some more?

[jonathankaplan]

In 1941 much of the naval war capacity of the USA was destroyed, by the power most likely for us to need that capacity against. In Jan 1942, FDR promised a "ramp-up" of the war effort (now against the entire Axis might) the likes of which was unheard of. One month later, the president was (as much as) promising a complete retooling of the nation's

Comments

[gunga_galunga]

How much of the food crisis could be solved by Americans eating less beef and more chicken?

(as a related aside, buy Wheat.)

From this it looks like we should have done that yesterday morning!

[jonathankaplan]

changing diet habits would help considerably, it costs a lot more grain and water to create a pound of beef than it does a pound of chicken (and even less if we stick to the wheat products directly). But i dont see that happening any time soon, and further, China and India (just to name two) have middle-class eaters quickly developing a fondness for "indirect" foods. The growth in their habits is where (more and more) the problem will lie, imo.

Yeah, shoulda bought wheat a few days ago...but with a trend like what is coming, any price this year is going to look like a great price, 3 years from now.

Thanks!

[gunga_galunga]

If I wanted to buy, say July 2013 wheat futures, how would I do it? It looks like I could open an futures account on e*trade, or are there ETFs that make more sense for a small time speculator?

[jonathankaplan]

the most direct way is through a futures account, and you will be able to get 100% exposure to wheat, as you describe (with a wheat contract).
An easier, but less direct way, is an ETF. The etf GRU is a "grain" etf, and has a 40% exposure to wheat, the rest being, well, the other grains....smile...that is the way I have done it personally, even though there are other grains in there, and it isnt pure wheat. But since I already have other ETFs, it just felt easier that way.
Good luck!

[adam__selene]

Stop subsidizing the ethanol industry would be a big start... and then start taxing it heavily.

The idea of driving your car on food seems much more abhorrent to me than the nebulous consequences of global warming.

[jonathankaplan]

I totally agree. Using corn to run machines is backwards thinking, and a dead end, literally. Almost every other alternative fuel is going to make more sense in the long run.

Thanks!