par-tay

[jonathankaplan]

Thanks to GWB and gang, the Democratic party has a Jimmy Carter opportunity

Comments

[stochasticgirl]

I think about the Jimmy Carter opportunity, too. But I also think about how his Presidency had no chance of lasting more than one term, with the recession, and OPEC, and the hostage crisis and all. Knowing that events on that scale could very well happen again in the next four years, I'm not so sure I want my guy to take the fall.

[schmengie]

honest --none
venal--all
outsider--none

[rcfox]

I agree, and it's strange that the biggest outsider is John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee....

[freeimprov]

How's McCain an "outsider"? He's been a senator for DECADES, he's the darling of the Broders and other self-styled Washington "centrists", he's probably the most popular Republican with people who aren't self-identified Republicans... McCain is the insider's insider.

What amazes me is that he manages to pull off his "outsider maverick" schtick year after year, while voting 99% party line, amazing tremendous power, inheriting Bush's fundraising network, etc.

[polyanarch]

I doubt either Hillary or Obama really have a chance, but that may very well depend on who the Republican'ts put up against them. It's not that She's a woman or that he's black so much as that they are both divisive figures -Hillary much more so. Either way the fundy crowd and the 2nd Amendment rights supporters are going to really get out the vote to stop them in the "flyover country" while the Big Left and East coastal cities will go for the democrats. The election map will look pretty much like it did in '04 with the Blue/Red dichotomy. Remember Bush won even when he was extremely unpopular and the press were calling it for the democrats the whole time.

The election will most probably go against the Democrats on the electoral college but they might come close or even win in the popular vote.

Pick your poison whether the Hillary liberals whine and moan like the Gore/Kerry camp did in '00 and 04 or we have Watts-08 riots after Obama looses. Make that double triple if he wins the popular vote but looses in delegates. I'll

[infopractical]

If Hillary has a chance, it's because people view her as a package with Bill.

But now that she's in a close nomination struggle, she's going to have to spend her cash now. Same goes for Obama. That isn't going to help against McCain. The best thing the Dems have going for them is that McCain strikes a lot of people as the edgy, volatile ex-torture victim that nobody wants to get a finger on the button.

Spending her cash

[polyanarch]

Hillary is already lagging far behind Obama in fund-raising and just lent her own campaign war-chest 4-million from her personal Whitewater fortune. It's looking ugly and a bit dry for the old crone while the money is rolling into Obama's pretend-change machine like a torrent. If her fund-raising doesn't turn around soon she's going to run out of steam and bankroll in weeks and not months while Obama sprints ahead. NOW is the time where money matters and the ability to keep momentum up will separate the winners from the also-rans. I feel that Hillary has a real battle here in the next few weeks and following her finances will be the key to understanding who wins the democratic nomination

[infopractical]

The U.S. is moving closer and closed to financial self-destruction. If the U.S. changes radically enough (and the change would have to be very radical including destruction of the electoral system), then it will be a result of rising from the ashes. I don't mean that as a doomsday prediction -- just a reality of modern nation-states. Wealth will shift to Asia and it's not clear what people here will do about it.

Financial self-destruction

[polyanarch]

The seeds for that have already been sown. The country has already pushed the self-destruct button, it's just taking time for the Rube Goldburgesque economic mousetrap to work its way around the globe before the cage drops on the cheese. But the machine is already in motion and not much that can be done now is going to work against the machinations of the global economy.

The only question is how long it will take for americans to wake up and realize their mailboxes are full of red envelopes marked "final notice."

Re: Financial self-destruction

[infopractical]

More importantly, what will people do? That's my concern as I try to be responsible, save, and prepare for the future. I don't come from wealth, but I'm not poor either and my wealth is likely to increase to the "moderately wealth" range over the next few years.

Here's the way it might break down in just a few years:
5% of Americans have a million in wealth (moderate to significant wealth)
10% of Americans have six figures in wealth (a bit to moderate wealth)
15% are treading above the line
70% are living off others like a drug

What happens when the drug stops pumping? That's the question I ask when I consider who is going to be our next president. (Yes, I know the numbers above are purely made, but I'm guessing they aren't far from telling the story.)

Drugs and fire-retardant

[polyanarch]

There is a fire burning deep down within all men. In this country a sort of fire-retardant has been pumping into them making them fat and happy, or at least well-behaved. Elsewhere in the world, things have not been so well behaved. That 70% that we are speaking of in the USA has been drugged by a steady stream of support coming from the top 30% but soon things are going to change where the fire-retardant will not be able to flow like it used to.

When the government runs out of sugar, it will move to vinegar. If people don't behave when bribed then they will turn out the fire-hoses. It's not going to be able to hold back the fire...