The lucky country

[erudito]

When Donald Horne wrote The Lucky Country, the title was an ironic indictment of mediocrity. And one can point to fortunate things about the land of Oz. The rich resource base. Being settled by the British rather than by, say, the Spanish

Comments

[usuakari]

I'm not normally a fan of alternate histories, but it's amusing and despressing to think about how Oz may have turned out if we had been colonised by the Portuguese or Spanish. Being settled by the Chinese may also have been interesting.

In every case, I can't see it as going well for the indigenous population...

Long processes

[erudito]

For the last 10,000 years, ever since the invention of agriculture, farming and farmers have been pushing out hunter-gathering and hunter-gatherers. Australia is simply the last continent for the process to reach. The only question was which group of farmers would be the ones and what their modus operandi towards the displaced hunter-gatherers would be.

[tinymammoth]

Well, this is refreshingly different from the posts on my friends list from my American friends.

I am not in a position to emigrate right now, but I'm seriously considering it if it becomes possible for me. I'm not sure what good it would do for me to stay here in the US and watch my country be consumed by a hyperinflationary spiral. Australia is my top choice, for the reasons you named and because everything I learn about Australian culture charms me.

In many countries, the immigrants are being thrust upon the general population by an out of touch elite who doesn't care how much social disruption immigration is causing. Do you think Australians are actually happy to have so many new immigrants?

Migrants and hyperinflation

[erudito]

According to polling, the migrant program has broad public support. Public support for the migration program increased after the Howard Government got tough on boat arrivals. My judgment is that people resent the feeling of having no say much more than migration and migrants as such.

While I am happy to spruik the country my family has been in since 1792, I am sceptical that hyperinflation is a serious prospect in the US: I take my cues from my favourite economic blogger, Scott Sumner. Moreover, the markets generally clearly do not think hyperinflation is a serious risk.

Re: Migrants and hyperinflation

[tinymammoth]

I hope you are right about hyperinflation.

Re: Migrants and hyperinflation

[erudito]

For hyperinflation, the monetary authorities have to not merely create a stock of money well in excess of goods and services, they have to keep doing it even when people start seriously spending it. This seems to be very unlikely behaviour by the Fed. The current market expectations are in much more deflationary directions.

There is a large stock of money, due to the amazing surge (which has apparently peaked) in money creation by the Fed, but there is also clear unused capacity in the economy. Besides, people holding on to money is not a sign they think it is going to lose value sharply.

[quatrefoil]

"Having the populations of Sydney and Melbourne increase by 30% without any significant new dams, while having water prices that do not reflect resulting scarcity, has, fairly predictably, created water shortage problems."

I can't believe it, erudito - you're sounding positively Green!

Hardly

[erudito]

Given we stopped building dams in response to anticipated population increase due to politicians being fearful of Green pressure, hardly--I believe the dams should have been built. That prices should reflect scarcity is just sensible, and I have posted on that regarding water more than once.

Re: Hardly

[quatrefoil]

Ah well, I was thinking you might be making a stand against further population growth ...

Re: Hardly

[erudito]

No, the ability to deal with population is more or less entirely about getting institutions, prices, infrastructure correct. Sabotaging the ability to deal with rising population and then pointing to subsequent problems as "proof" of environmental problems may be a great political strategy, but lacks in certain other departments.

[tyggerjai]

Yeah. It's interesting, listening to my friends bleat about the imminent establishment of a totalitarian state in Australia while I'm in Moscow, or Berlin, or Turkey. You want to know what a harsh immigration policy is, try crossing the border from Iraq as a Kurd. Which isn't to say Australia can't do better in many ways, but really, people, perspective.

Perspective

[erudito]

Well yes. Kissinger was once asked why academic politics was so ferocious. He replied "because the stakes are so small". There is an element of that: and of creating a sense of moral heroism via a process of moral inflation.

[kenshi]

Since I was actually in the Melbourne Stock Exchange on October 19th, 1987 and witnessed that notorious crash (and its fall-out over the next couple of years) first-hand, I'm a little more circumspect about claiming that Australia has been uniformly lucky when it comes to the stock market. In my recollection, '87 was pretty much an unmitigated disaster for the Australian markets.

However, this time around, Oz seems to be on the trailing edge of the disaster rather than the leading edge. That's good for y'all, so long as it lasts.

Relative

[erudito]

The Credit Suisse claim was higher overall returns and less volatility, not that there was no volatility.

The notable thing about the 87 crash was how little effect it had on the "real" economy, both here and elsewhere.