The lucky country

[erudito]

When Donald Horne wrote The Lucky Country, the title was an ironic indictment of mediocrity. And one can point to fortunate things about the land of Oz. The rich resource base. Being settled by the British rather than by, say, the Spanish

Comments

[tinymammoth]

Well, this is refreshingly different from the posts on my friends list from my American friends.

I am not in a position to emigrate right now, but I'm seriously considering it if it becomes possible for me. I'm not sure what good it would do for me to stay here in the US and watch my country be consumed by a hyperinflationary spiral. Australia is my top choice, for the reasons you named and because everything I learn about Australian culture charms me.

In many countries, the immigrants are being thrust upon the general population by an out of touch elite who doesn't care how much social disruption immigration is causing. Do you think Australians are actually happy to have so many new immigrants?

Migrants and hyperinflation

[erudito]

According to polling, the migrant program has broad public support. Public support for the migration program increased after the Howard Government got tough on boat arrivals. My judgment is that people resent the feeling of having no say much more than migration and migrants as such.

While I am happy to spruik the country my family has been in since 1792, I am sceptical that hyperinflation is a serious prospect in the US: I take my cues from my favourite economic blogger, Scott Sumner. Moreover, the markets generally clearly do not think hyperinflation is a serious risk.

Re: Migrants and hyperinflation

[tinymammoth]

I hope you are right about hyperinflation.

Re: Migrants and hyperinflation

[erudito]

For hyperinflation, the monetary authorities have to not merely create a stock of money well in excess of goods and services, they have to keep doing it even when people start seriously spending it. This seems to be very unlikely behaviour by the Fed. The current market expectations are in much more deflationary directions.

There is a large stock of money, due to the amazing surge (which has apparently peaked) in money creation by the Fed, but there is also clear unused capacity in the economy. Besides, people holding on to money is not a sign they think it is going to lose value sharply.

Re: Migrants and hyperinflation

[tinymammoth]

Thanks - I'll have to look at those when my health is better. But I meant over the next 10+ years, or even 20 - I just have no confidence in our ability to pay our debt, or to take even the smallest sensible measures to slow down impending doom.

I am very behind on understanding the issues though.

Re: Migrants and hyperinflation

[erudito]

There are public debt issues in the US, but hardly extraordinary ones by world standards. The US Federal Budget was in surplus as recently as the Clinton Administration, based on a Mundellian bargain with the Fed. I see no great reason why it could not be done again.

Re: Migrants and hyperinflation

[kenshi]

The Clinton budget "surplus" was nothing of the sort. It was a financial mirage generated by an accounting legerdemain which involved counting the money taken from social security as revenue without listing the special bonds placed on SS' books as a liability. If you take out the money looted from SS, Clinton never once ran a surplus, even though a massive economic boom had tax revenues running near all-time highs. The liability created by that behavior was real, but not accounted for on the official books. We're dealing with the fallout from that right now (among other things) as we look at a real federal debt (including unfunded liabilities) well in excess of $100 trillion over the next ten to fifteen years.

Re: Migrants and hyperinflation

[erudito]

There are issues with "on budget" and "off budget" in the US. Nevertheless, it was an "on budget" surplus. A much tighter fiscal performance than under the next two Administrations (or the previous several, for that matter). Though how much credit you give Administrations is always an interesting question, since the President proposes but Congress disposes.

There are much more guilty parties for the current fiscal mess than the Clinton Administration.

Re: Migrants and hyperinflation

[kenshi]

"On budget" vs. "off budget" is just PR bullshit and a completely meaningless distinction concocted strictly for campaign literature. The financial reality was that there was no surplus, and hasn't been one for a very long time.

But your point that Congress is far more responsible for budgetary shenanigans than the Executive is mostly correct. Since they wrested sole control of the purse strings from Nixon while he was going down in flames, Congress has had primary responsibility for Fed.gov's financial health. Look how well that's worked out.

This is not to say that the Executive branch is blameless or powerless (LOL Obama), but Executives are able to accomplish very little without the aid and abetment of their co-conspirators on Capitol Hill.