My prediction about peak Apple is holding up well, though it is early days and I only posted after the peak. (Tho I had thought that for a good while
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Mostly I agree with you, but have you considered the profit potential of the driverless cars? People tend to write them off as "just a research project". Replacing every taxi, haulage fim and private car in the world has large profit upside. Various car manufacturers are working on the same, but seem to be a long way behind.
And just catching up on that Apple post, I suspect there's more downside there than you suggest. I don't see them holding that percentage of the profit in mobile for all that long.
Oh, I'm pretty sure driverless cars will be a very big industry. But it's not an industry yet, and faces some steep challenges before it is. It'd be essentially making an entire new company. Outside high tech, first mover is rarely biggest profit (they bear all the costs of development, and their plant is first gen and hard to upgrade.) High tech cars - so far - seem to work more like cars than websites in economic terms. I could of course be wrong. But driverless cars won't make me wrong about Google in the next 5 years at least. :-)
Update: I wasn't confident about this one, and that 20% band seemed wise at the time and very important now. The current share price is 860 ish (2013-05-07), which is up 7.5% from 800 ish (2013-03-31) when I made the prediction. It doesn't need to do much more of that before my limit is busted. The previous peak was about 840 (2013-03-05), so I think I won't count myself definitively wrong on this one unless and until the share price crosses 1000, which is more than 20% up from what I said, but a little less than 20% up from 840 which is sort-of what I meant. It's a nice round number though, which is appealing, and also means the market is likely to hesitate to push through it - but if it does, it'll be likely to smash right through it beyond 1008 which is 20% up from 840
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Mostly I agree with you, but have you considered the profit potential of the driverless cars? People tend to write them off as "just a research project". Replacing every taxi, haulage fim and private car in the world has large profit upside. Various car manufacturers are working on the same, but seem to be a long way behind.
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And just catching up on that Apple post, I suspect there's more downside there than you suggest. I don't see them holding that percentage of the profit in mobile for all that long.
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Why would Google build the cars? The secret sauce is all in the software, which would be licensed.
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