Don't be evil
My prediction about peak Apple is holding up well, though it is early days and I only posted after the peak. (Tho I had thought that for a good while.)
So as a note to myself, I've been thinking we're at or near peak Google now. Current share price is around an all-time high of 800. As with Apple, Microsoft and IBM, post peak does not mean about to be wiped out, or even to become small. But it's not going to get much bigger. I'm less confident than with Apple - I don't understand Google's business and profit sources well enough, and there isn't an obvious peak in the graph yet. But I'll stick to the same prediction: share price not to go more than 20% higher than now.
Rationale summary: New retail lines not transformatory. Smartphone market no longer exploding in cash terms. Execs have clearly decided to shift away from innovation (and delighting high tech crowd) to competition and the mass market. (I think they're right, tho it doesn't help me.) If I'm wrong, I expect it'll be because of a new business line in making money from analytics/big data.
This entry crossposted to http://doug.dreamwidth.org/254733.html, where there are
comment(s) not shown here.
So as a note to myself, I've been thinking we're at or near peak Google now. Current share price is around an all-time high of 800. As with Apple, Microsoft and IBM, post peak does not mean about to be wiped out, or even to become small. But it's not going to get much bigger. I'm less confident than with Apple - I don't understand Google's business and profit sources well enough, and there isn't an obvious peak in the graph yet. But I'll stick to the same prediction: share price not to go more than 20% higher than now.
Rationale summary: New retail lines not transformatory. Smartphone market no longer exploding in cash terms. Execs have clearly decided to shift away from innovation (and delighting high tech crowd) to competition and the mass market. (I think they're right, tho it doesn't help me.) If I'm wrong, I expect it'll be because of a new business line in making money from analytics/big data.
This entry crossposted to http://doug.dreamwidth.org/254733.html, where there are
comment(s) not shown here.