Rowling never specified what breed of dog Sirius' Animagus form was, and 'a bear-like black dog' doesn't do much to narrow the field of possibilities. However, if we assume that the transformation closely reflects the wizard's personality, and perhaps reinforces it, I think I might have identified our mystery breed.
(
Meet the Russian Newfoundland, also called the Moscow Water Dog. )
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The more people there are the harder it becomes to have complete control all of them.
You would think he would want as many people as possible to join his Order to fight Voldmort and his Deatheaters. We were told how during Voldemorts first rise to power they were badly outnumbered. Wouldn't it make sense to avoid that this time? But how many new members are there? The Weasleys, Kingsley, Hestia Jones and Tonks. Not a very big recruitment. Dumbedore may be Supreme Mugwump of the International Confederation of Wizards and Chief Warlock of the Wizengamot. However those organizations are to big to have under his complete control.
I think Dumbledore is very smart. He needs to be careful. Don't want an elimination causing the board to kick up a fuss. He needs Muggle Studies to show he cares about muggles. Defense against the Dark Art, well he is the champion of the light and opponent of Dark Magic.
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Well, Fleur was openly dismissive of the British system. Of course, she's a Frog, and what do they know?
Griselda Mrachbanks personally tested Dumbledore for his NEWT practicals in Charms & Transfigurations, and he "did things with a wand I'd never seen before" to impress her.
Whereas Harry got extra credit and fawning accolades at his Defense OWL merely for casting a Patronus, which almost all of the DA members--who were NOT self-selected for exceptional ability or precocity--could master once taught.
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Also, having a duel in the exam would prove Umbridge wrong. As it was, she was right, the kids didn't need (much) practice to pass the OWL. All they needed was to remember which spell was which, to point their wands and chant.
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And all of the kids from WW families would receive strong encouragement to do the same--those exams determine their futures.
So seeing improvement in 5th year wouldn't be that uncommon.
OTOH--we know that at least 3 teachers allow kids with O OR E into their NEWTs calasses--if the exam grades aren't publicly released, just Pass/Fail, then only the Head of House might know which of the students taking their NEWT classes had recieved which grade.
Slughorn, for instance, might be under the impression that he has 11 E students plus Harry in his class, not 10 O's plus Harry and Ron. And note that Ron's performance is so dismal that he doesn't even remember his name.....
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To me Russian Water Dog!Sirius sounds more believable then Grim!Sirius.
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