Blind Go Statistics
I calculated statistics based on data for the past three rounds of blind_go. I wanted to post these before the deadline for the fourth round passed, to see how accurate my predictions for this round would be.
Quick Rundown of Rounds
Round 1: Anything Goes, max of three entries, 500 words min
Round 2: Short!fic, max of five entries, 100-1000 word limit
Round 3: Long!fic, max of one entry, 5000 words min, collaborations allowed
Round 4: AUs and crossovers, max of two entries, 1000 words min
Part One: Submission Data
Sign-Ups
Round 1: 27
Round 2: 42
Round 3: 38
Round 4: 56
Note that the number of sign-ups for round 4 is more than double that of the first round. ^_^
Submissions
(submissions = authors who submitted a fic, not the number of fic they submitted)
Round 1: 21
Round 2: 35
Round 3: 23
Sign Up Yield
(calculated using the formula: submissions/sign-ups)
Round 1: 0.778
Round 2: 0.833
Round 3: 0.605
Predictions for Round 4
Sign Up Yield: 0.739
Submissions: 41
The sign up yield (SUY) was calculated by averaging the yields from the previous three rounds. The number of submissions was calculated by multiplying the predicted SUY by the number of sign-ups. This method is not without error, since each round has its own requirements that affect the number of submissions. For example, the short!fic round had the highest yield and the long!fic round had the lowest yield. However, I hoped the two extremes would balance each other out.
Part Two: Fic Data
Maximum Possible Number of Fics
(calculated by # sign-ups * max possible entries per author)
Round 1: 81
Round 2: 210
Round 3: 38
Round 4: 112
Number of Fics
Round 1: 29
Round 2: 83
Round 3: 23
Number of Multiple Submissions
Round 1: 7
Round 2: 19
Round 3: n/a
Fic Yield
(calculated by number of fics/max possible number of fics)
Round 1: 0.358
Round 2: 0.395
Round 3: 0.605
Multiple Fic Yield
(calculated by number of multiple submissions/number of submissions)
Round 1: 0.259
Round 2: 0.452
Round 3: n/a
Predictions for Round 4
Fic Yield: 0.453
Fics: 51
Multiple Fic Yield: 0.356
Multiple Submissions: 20
Predictions were calculated the same way as in Part One. The yield was calculated by averaging the yields from previous rounds, and then multiplied by predicted number of submissions to obtain the predicted number of fics. It is interesting to note that although Round 3 had the lowest sign-up yield, it had almost double the fic yield as compared to the first two rounds. Again, predictions are skewed because of the limited number of rounds to extrapolate from and the different requirements for each round. Multiple fic predictions are especially skewed because round three data was not applicable.
Part Three: Word Count Data
Word Count
(based on word count in Microsoft Word, may not be completely accurate)
Round 1: 91,633
Round 2: 57,644
Round 3: 182,636
Minimum Possible Word Count
Round 1: 14,500
Round 2: 8,300
Round 3: 11,500
Word Count Yield
(calculated by actual word count / min possible word count)
Round 1: 6.32
Round 2: 6.945
Round 3: 1.588
Predictions for Round 4
Min Possible Word Count: 51,000
Word Count Yield: 4.951
Word Count: 292,501
The predicted minimum possible word count was calculated by multiplying the predicted number of fics by the minimum required word count. The word count yield was obtained by taking the average yield of the last three rounds. Word count was calculated by multiplying the predicted number of fics by the predicted word count yield.
In summary, the community has grown at an amazing pace, and the bar has been set higher for each round due to the previous one. I eagerly await the results of the fourth round. I wonder how close my predictions will be to the reality.
Quick Rundown of Rounds
Round 1: Anything Goes, max of three entries, 500 words min
Round 2: Short!fic, max of five entries, 100-1000 word limit
Round 3: Long!fic, max of one entry, 5000 words min, collaborations allowed
Round 4: AUs and crossovers, max of two entries, 1000 words min
Part One: Submission Data
Sign-Ups
Round 1: 27
Round 2: 42
Round 3: 38
Round 4: 56
Note that the number of sign-ups for round 4 is more than double that of the first round. ^_^
Submissions
(submissions = authors who submitted a fic, not the number of fic they submitted)
Round 1: 21
Round 2: 35
Round 3: 23
Sign Up Yield
(calculated using the formula: submissions/sign-ups)
Round 1: 0.778
Round 2: 0.833
Round 3: 0.605
Predictions for Round 4
Sign Up Yield: 0.739
Submissions: 41
The sign up yield (SUY) was calculated by averaging the yields from the previous three rounds. The number of submissions was calculated by multiplying the predicted SUY by the number of sign-ups. This method is not without error, since each round has its own requirements that affect the number of submissions. For example, the short!fic round had the highest yield and the long!fic round had the lowest yield. However, I hoped the two extremes would balance each other out.
Part Two: Fic Data
Maximum Possible Number of Fics
(calculated by # sign-ups * max possible entries per author)
Round 1: 81
Round 2: 210
Round 3: 38
Round 4: 112
Number of Fics
Round 1: 29
Round 2: 83
Round 3: 23
Number of Multiple Submissions
Round 1: 7
Round 2: 19
Round 3: n/a
Fic Yield
(calculated by number of fics/max possible number of fics)
Round 1: 0.358
Round 2: 0.395
Round 3: 0.605
Multiple Fic Yield
(calculated by number of multiple submissions/number of submissions)
Round 1: 0.259
Round 2: 0.452
Round 3: n/a
Predictions for Round 4
Fic Yield: 0.453
Fics: 51
Multiple Fic Yield: 0.356
Multiple Submissions: 20
Predictions were calculated the same way as in Part One. The yield was calculated by averaging the yields from previous rounds, and then multiplied by predicted number of submissions to obtain the predicted number of fics. It is interesting to note that although Round 3 had the lowest sign-up yield, it had almost double the fic yield as compared to the first two rounds. Again, predictions are skewed because of the limited number of rounds to extrapolate from and the different requirements for each round. Multiple fic predictions are especially skewed because round three data was not applicable.
Part Three: Word Count Data
Word Count
(based on word count in Microsoft Word, may not be completely accurate)
Round 1: 91,633
Round 2: 57,644
Round 3: 182,636
Minimum Possible Word Count
Round 1: 14,500
Round 2: 8,300
Round 3: 11,500
Word Count Yield
(calculated by actual word count / min possible word count)
Round 1: 6.32
Round 2: 6.945
Round 3: 1.588
Predictions for Round 4
Min Possible Word Count: 51,000
Word Count Yield: 4.951
Word Count: 292,501
The predicted minimum possible word count was calculated by multiplying the predicted number of fics by the minimum required word count. The word count yield was obtained by taking the average yield of the last three rounds. Word count was calculated by multiplying the predicted number of fics by the predicted word count yield.
In summary, the community has grown at an amazing pace, and the bar has been set higher for each round due to the previous one. I eagerly await the results of the fourth round. I wonder how close my predictions will be to the reality.