Обновленная версия обоснования революции цен в космонавтике при использовании КА-накопителей
Assessed valuation of Russian and foreign patents for the invention PCT/RU2010/000036 (EP2390188, RU2398717 and US 20110272528)
The value of the present and the future patents for the invention PCT/RU2010/000036 (method for delivering raw materials into orbit, including rocket fuel components into orbital fuel depositories) is defined by the total economic effect from their introduction into the economy of modern aerospace leaders - USA, Russia, EU, China, Ukraine, Japan and India.
According to the established practice, the cost of a package of patents or of licenses given to investors on the basis of these patents can be evaluated as 20-30 % from the total economic effect received for the whole lifetime of these patents or licenses, or as 10-20% from sales value.
The highest economic effect from innovation of the invention PCT/RU2010/000036 is discovered in servicing of geostationary satellites' launches, the share of which makes up 70-80% from all the launches of artificial Earth satellites, including both commercial and state launching programs. The available technical data on launches of communication satellites into geostationary orbit (GSO) make it possible to calculate the economic effect from implementation of orbital depositories of rocket fuel the stocks of which can since now be created at a very cheap price with implementation of the given invention.
As an example, let's consider a rocket of relatively high load capacity, e.g. "Proton". The Russian rocket "Proton-M" orbits into the supporting orbit (200 km altitude) the payload of 22 tones mass, and into the geostationary orbit (35786 km altitude) the cargoes with mass almost in 4 times less - 5.6 tones. The 16.4 tones difference is made up by rocket fuel stocks and the construction of the barring block. Besides the satellite delivered to the geostationary orbit contains also stock of rocket fuel for correction engines, as a rule on the level of 20% from it's mass equal to 5.6 tons, that makes up around plus 1.12 tons more. Altogether for satellite equipment there remains only 4.5 tones from the initial mass of 22 tones on the supporting orbit. In this way if we deliver to the supporting orbit a satellite without fuel stocks and for it's orbiting into the geostationary orbit we use either a multiple-use interorbital tug or the last step of a single-mission rocket which are refueled on the supporting orbit from special depositories of rocket fuel (with the help of the fuellers already developed in USA and EU) replenished on the patented method, then we can increase the number of standard satellites launched into geostationary orbit in 5 times for each launch, or reduce the total number of launches in 5 times with same invariable number of satellites launched into GSO. So far as according to the patented method for delivering fuel into orbital depositories it's cost can be around $50-100/kg, that is slightingly low in comparison with the existing prices on creation of rocket fuel stocks in the orbit, then the economic effect from refueling of space crafts will make up 75-95% from the cost of launching services in the World market of geostationary satellites launches.
The existing reviews of the market of launching services* for the period of years 2001-2007 make it possible to define an average annual volume of services as $3.4 billion.
Table 1 - The structure and the volumes of the World commercial market of space production in the period of years 2001-2007, US$, billion.
Market segments
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Market of services on launching of payload
5,3
3,0
3,7
3,2
2,8
3,0
2,7
3,2
* The source: Satellite Industry Association, Futron Corp. The data are rounded down to hundreds of million. http://protown.ru/information/hide/4465.html
Accordingly, the share of launches of satellites into geostationary orbit makes up an average of $2.6 billion (that is 70-80% of total launches number). Then the annual economic effect from space crafts refueling will make up $2-2.5 billion (75-95% of the cost of launches into GSO).
Practical exploitation of the offered system can be started after 3-4 years of research and development works (R/D). If the works are started in 2014, commercial exploitation of the system is possible in 2018. The patents' lifetime is expired after 2029, that gives 12 years of commercial exploitation of the system under licensed protection from competitors. Considering the possibility of substantial reduction of prices, there supposed 100% market development.
Development of the World market of launching services is possible in course of 5 years: 20% - 1st year; 40% - 2nd year; 60% - 3rd year; 80% - 4th year; 100% - 5th year.
With minimal market volume of $2.6 billion per year without consideration of annual growth of sales of services on launching of satellites into geostationary orbit, the sales volume in case of fixed demand on the services will make up $26 billion:
Table 2 - Sales volume of launching services with implementation of the invention EP2390188, RU2398717 and US 20110272528 A1
Year
Sales volume
Comment
2014 -
0
R/D
2015 -
0
R/D
2016 -
0
R/D
2017 -
0
R/D
2018 -
$520 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2019 -
$1040 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2020 -
$1560 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2021 -
$2080 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2022 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2023 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2024 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2025 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2026 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2027 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2028 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2029 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
Total:
$26000 million
Total sales for the whole period of validity of patents
In this sum the possible income from the invention implementation according to the aforementioned calculation will make up minimum 75% or $19.5 billion and maximum 95% or $24.7 billion. Within the limits of this income there included R/D expenses, discounts to clients and profit of holders of operating license for Maiboroda's invention. Costs of the system development, creation and exploitation can be evaluated at $0.5 billion and license holders' (licensees') profit, licensor's royalty, costs of license purchasing and client's income in the form of discounts will then make up $18-24.2 billion.
It should be considered that the aforementioned analysis of the invention value considers only one of the great number of other possible economic effects of it's commercialization and that's why it shows just the lowest boarder of the invention value and of incomes from the investments into it's patenting.
Second by significance economic effect is delivery to the orbit by the patented method of silicon and other types of raw materials necessary for production of photoelectric converters (PEC) or solar batteries (SB) under conditions of space vacuum - raw materials delivery to orbital industrial stations at the price of ~$50/kg will provide success of space energetics commercialization. In the USA there already worked out corresponding technologies of line production of thin-membrane SBs on board the spacecrafts.
Three countries - Japan, USA and Germany have got plans on creation of commercial satellite solar power stations, quick implementation of which is restrained only by high prices of cargoes delivery into space. For the pilot project of a commercial power station for power supply of consumers in Japan there reserved $20 billion and defined a group of companies-participants from 16 business firms. Patenting of the invention in Japan will provide to investors profit from selling of the license to companies-participants of the project. Corresponding revenue will be provided by patenting of the invention in the USA and the EU.
Production of SB in orbital complexes has got potential customers as represented by the companies exploiting geostationary communication satellites. At present power capacity of communication satellites is substantially limited and this, with low prices of SB production in the orbit due to the given invention, creates possibility of monopolistic satisfaction of the demand on auxiliary power-generating units for communication satellites.
Together with regular inexpensive deliveries of working substance for engines of geostationary satellites orientation, auxiliary solar power-generating units for communication satellites open the market of additional places on geostationary orbit: with availability of the working substance and the source of energy a spacecraft can be placed in the non-keplerian orbit (NKO), or the so-called levitated displaced orbit. It's surface doesn't pass through the Earth masses centre and it's parameters are not defined only by gravitation force. The geostationary NKO represents itself a zone in the form of a band of 20-100 km width that increases the number of paid places for communication satellites in dozens of times and even more.
Production of SB in the orbit under the condition of possible inexpensive procedure of the products returning to the Earth is also profitable in case of membrane PECs production for earth-based solar power stations. According to the data of European Photovoltaics Association (EPIA), the world bulk of industrial facilities on PEC production in 2009 was making up around 24 GW and the world bulk of industrial facilities in 2014 will reach 65 GW. Within this bulk the share of thin-membrane modules is growing up from 17% in 2009 to 25% in 2014. The specific cost of capacity of flat modules of the solar batteries in the world market makes up $4-5/W and the cost of photoelectric arrangements - $7-10/W. Considering the fact that at present silicon consumption coefficient is making up around 7.5 g/W for regular SB and 0.5 g/W for the membrane ones, the patented method for delivering silicon to orbital industrial complexes (~$0.05/g) provides profitability of production of SB for the earth-based consumers with possible sales volume within the limits of the standard 10% of the global market with annual sales of $ 100 billion. On a scale of 2014 it will make up more than $10 billion per year.
The value of the present and the future patents for the invention PCT/RU2010/000036 (method for delivering raw materials into orbit, including rocket fuel components into orbital fuel depositories) is defined by the total economic effect from their introduction into the economy of modern aerospace leaders - USA, Russia, EU, China, Ukraine, Japan and India.
According to the established practice, the cost of a package of patents or of licenses given to investors on the basis of these patents can be evaluated as 20-30 % from the total economic effect received for the whole lifetime of these patents or licenses, or as 10-20% from sales value.
The highest economic effect from innovation of the invention PCT/RU2010/000036 is discovered in servicing of geostationary satellites' launches, the share of which makes up 70-80% from all the launches of artificial Earth satellites, including both commercial and state launching programs. The available technical data on launches of communication satellites into geostationary orbit (GSO) make it possible to calculate the economic effect from implementation of orbital depositories of rocket fuel the stocks of which can since now be created at a very cheap price with implementation of the given invention.
As an example, let's consider a rocket of relatively high load capacity, e.g. "Proton". The Russian rocket "Proton-M" orbits into the supporting orbit (200 km altitude) the payload of 22 tones mass, and into the geostationary orbit (35786 km altitude) the cargoes with mass almost in 4 times less - 5.6 tones. The 16.4 tones difference is made up by rocket fuel stocks and the construction of the barring block. Besides the satellite delivered to the geostationary orbit contains also stock of rocket fuel for correction engines, as a rule on the level of 20% from it's mass equal to 5.6 tons, that makes up around plus 1.12 tons more. Altogether for satellite equipment there remains only 4.5 tones from the initial mass of 22 tones on the supporting orbit. In this way if we deliver to the supporting orbit a satellite without fuel stocks and for it's orbiting into the geostationary orbit we use either a multiple-use interorbital tug or the last step of a single-mission rocket which are refueled on the supporting orbit from special depositories of rocket fuel (with the help of the fuellers already developed in USA and EU) replenished on the patented method, then we can increase the number of standard satellites launched into geostationary orbit in 5 times for each launch, or reduce the total number of launches in 5 times with same invariable number of satellites launched into GSO. So far as according to the patented method for delivering fuel into orbital depositories it's cost can be around $50-100/kg, that is slightingly low in comparison with the existing prices on creation of rocket fuel stocks in the orbit, then the economic effect from refueling of space crafts will make up 75-95% from the cost of launching services in the World market of geostationary satellites launches.
The existing reviews of the market of launching services* for the period of years 2001-2007 make it possible to define an average annual volume of services as $3.4 billion.
Table 1 - The structure and the volumes of the World commercial market of space production in the period of years 2001-2007, US$, billion.
Market segments
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Market of services on launching of payload
5,3
3,0
3,7
3,2
2,8
3,0
2,7
3,2
* The source: Satellite Industry Association, Futron Corp. The data are rounded down to hundreds of million. http://protown.ru/information/hide/4465.html
Accordingly, the share of launches of satellites into geostationary orbit makes up an average of $2.6 billion (that is 70-80% of total launches number). Then the annual economic effect from space crafts refueling will make up $2-2.5 billion (75-95% of the cost of launches into GSO).
Practical exploitation of the offered system can be started after 3-4 years of research and development works (R/D). If the works are started in 2014, commercial exploitation of the system is possible in 2018. The patents' lifetime is expired after 2029, that gives 12 years of commercial exploitation of the system under licensed protection from competitors. Considering the possibility of substantial reduction of prices, there supposed 100% market development.
Development of the World market of launching services is possible in course of 5 years: 20% - 1st year; 40% - 2nd year; 60% - 3rd year; 80% - 4th year; 100% - 5th year.
With minimal market volume of $2.6 billion per year without consideration of annual growth of sales of services on launching of satellites into geostationary orbit, the sales volume in case of fixed demand on the services will make up $26 billion:
Table 2 - Sales volume of launching services with implementation of the invention EP2390188, RU2398717 and US 20110272528 A1
Year
Sales volume
Comment
2014 -
0
R/D
2015 -
0
R/D
2016 -
0
R/D
2017 -
0
R/D
2018 -
$520 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2019 -
$1040 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2020 -
$1560 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2021 -
$2080 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2022 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2023 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2024 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2025 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2026 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2027 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2028 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
2029 -
$2600 million
Sales for propellant boosters through orbital refueling stations
Total:
$26000 million
Total sales for the whole period of validity of patents
In this sum the possible income from the invention implementation according to the aforementioned calculation will make up minimum 75% or $19.5 billion and maximum 95% or $24.7 billion. Within the limits of this income there included R/D expenses, discounts to clients and profit of holders of operating license for Maiboroda's invention. Costs of the system development, creation and exploitation can be evaluated at $0.5 billion and license holders' (licensees') profit, licensor's royalty, costs of license purchasing and client's income in the form of discounts will then make up $18-24.2 billion.
It should be considered that the aforementioned analysis of the invention value considers only one of the great number of other possible economic effects of it's commercialization and that's why it shows just the lowest boarder of the invention value and of incomes from the investments into it's patenting.
Second by significance economic effect is delivery to the orbit by the patented method of silicon and other types of raw materials necessary for production of photoelectric converters (PEC) or solar batteries (SB) under conditions of space vacuum - raw materials delivery to orbital industrial stations at the price of ~$50/kg will provide success of space energetics commercialization. In the USA there already worked out corresponding technologies of line production of thin-membrane SBs on board the spacecrafts.
Three countries - Japan, USA and Germany have got plans on creation of commercial satellite solar power stations, quick implementation of which is restrained only by high prices of cargoes delivery into space. For the pilot project of a commercial power station for power supply of consumers in Japan there reserved $20 billion and defined a group of companies-participants from 16 business firms. Patenting of the invention in Japan will provide to investors profit from selling of the license to companies-participants of the project. Corresponding revenue will be provided by patenting of the invention in the USA and the EU.
Production of SB in orbital complexes has got potential customers as represented by the companies exploiting geostationary communication satellites. At present power capacity of communication satellites is substantially limited and this, with low prices of SB production in the orbit due to the given invention, creates possibility of monopolistic satisfaction of the demand on auxiliary power-generating units for communication satellites.
Together with regular inexpensive deliveries of working substance for engines of geostationary satellites orientation, auxiliary solar power-generating units for communication satellites open the market of additional places on geostationary orbit: with availability of the working substance and the source of energy a spacecraft can be placed in the non-keplerian orbit (NKO), or the so-called levitated displaced orbit. It's surface doesn't pass through the Earth masses centre and it's parameters are not defined only by gravitation force. The geostationary NKO represents itself a zone in the form of a band of 20-100 km width that increases the number of paid places for communication satellites in dozens of times and even more.
Production of SB in the orbit under the condition of possible inexpensive procedure of the products returning to the Earth is also profitable in case of membrane PECs production for earth-based solar power stations. According to the data of European Photovoltaics Association (EPIA), the world bulk of industrial facilities on PEC production in 2009 was making up around 24 GW and the world bulk of industrial facilities in 2014 will reach 65 GW. Within this bulk the share of thin-membrane modules is growing up from 17% in 2009 to 25% in 2014. The specific cost of capacity of flat modules of the solar batteries in the world market makes up $4-5/W and the cost of photoelectric arrangements - $7-10/W. Considering the fact that at present silicon consumption coefficient is making up around 7.5 g/W for regular SB and 0.5 g/W for the membrane ones, the patented method for delivering silicon to orbital industrial complexes (~$0.05/g) provides profitability of production of SB for the earth-based consumers with possible sales volume within the limits of the standard 10% of the global market with annual sales of $ 100 billion. On a scale of 2014 it will make up more than $10 billion per year.