Putin is bluffing
I think that the goal of the current Russian escalation is forcing Ukraine (or making the US/EU force Ukraine) to execute Minsk agreements. Asking for NATO pullout of Bulgaria, Romania, and the Baltics is just a negotiation tactic.
Currently, the Russian strike group looks much more real than they did in the spring. From a military point of view, they are indeed ready to strike.
Putin is telling the West: I want Ukraine. Give it to me, or I will take it by force. I have enough tanks and Iskanders for it. It will be bloody; millions of refugees will swarm your borders! I am a big bad trigger-happy madman! You don't want that, right?
The US responds: try us, bitch. You might win the fight, but you will lose the war. We will make sure that the fight will indeed be bloody. We will sanction your ass back into the USSR. We will designate Russia as a sponsor of terrorism. We will seize your foreign assets.
Putin: hmmm... hmmm... I did not quite hear that, can you please respond in writing?
Europe: we're not so certain about that level of sanctions, frankly. And we sure do not want those millions of refugees here, thank you very much.
Putin: then give me what is rightfully mine! See, I am mobilizing my fleets now! I am totally committed! I even have an occupation government ready!
It's all so over the top. I think Putin is bluffing. He intends to scare Europe into pushing Ukraine to submit.
But he is not going to launch a full-scale invasion with bombings and missile strikes.
This entry was originally posted at https://tymofiy.dreamwidth.org/189209.html. Please comment there.
Currently, the Russian strike group looks much more real than they did in the spring. From a military point of view, they are indeed ready to strike.
Putin is telling the West: I want Ukraine. Give it to me, or I will take it by force. I have enough tanks and Iskanders for it. It will be bloody; millions of refugees will swarm your borders! I am a big bad trigger-happy madman! You don't want that, right?
The US responds: try us, bitch. You might win the fight, but you will lose the war. We will make sure that the fight will indeed be bloody. We will sanction your ass back into the USSR. We will designate Russia as a sponsor of terrorism. We will seize your foreign assets.
Putin: hmmm... hmmm... I did not quite hear that, can you please respond in writing?
Europe: we're not so certain about that level of sanctions, frankly. And we sure do not want those millions of refugees here, thank you very much.
Putin: then give me what is rightfully mine! See, I am mobilizing my fleets now! I am totally committed! I even have an occupation government ready!
It's all so over the top. I think Putin is bluffing. He intends to scare Europe into pushing Ukraine to submit.
But he is not going to launch a full-scale invasion with bombings and missile strikes.
This entry was originally posted at https://tymofiy.dreamwidth.org/189209.html. Please comment there.