An attempt to make sense of that crazy Russian "disband NATO" demand.
In 2013 Ukraine was trying to sign an EU trade treaty, which should have moved the country from Russia's orbit. With a combination of political and economic pressure, Russia coerced Ukrainian president Yanukovich to do a U-turn.
The protests erupted. Many Ukrainians saw the EU treaty as a chance to reform and improve their country. Some Ukrainian oligarchs were stand to profit from the lifted EU quotas. The country was divided on the issue, but pro-EU forces won. Yanukovich fled to Russia.
Russia enacted plan B: they seized Crimea and attempted to carve half of Ukraine into a "Novorossia" state. Russian propaganda was shouting that after a "coup," Ukraine "does not exist." Saboteur groups tried to incite breakaway rebellions in all large Eastern Ukrainian cities.
Surprisingly for Putin, who thought that most of Ukraine dreamed about joining Russia, the saboteurs succeeded only in two cities. Donetsk and Lugansk. In the following conflict, Russia supported them with arms and "volunteers," but the separatists were losing the war. So in August 2014, the Russian military stepped in directly and dealt a few crushing blows to the Ukrainian army.
After a military success, Russia imposed its will in the Minsk ceasefire agreement. Ukraine agreed to accept Donetsk/Lugansk as autonomies, effectively giving Russia 3 million votes to influence Ukrainian politics. And an uncontrolled chunk of the border. And permission to rewrite the Ukraine-EU trade treaty to Russia's liking.
The hostilities did not end, though. The actual shape of the border was still discussed with guns. Ukraine suffered another defeat in early 2015 in Debaltsevo, which led to the (worse) Minsk-2 ceasefire agreement. However, by summer 2015, Ukraine's military improved enough to be able to repel the Russians in battles near Marinka.
Those successes let Ukraine adopt a stalling strategy. Ukraine does not reject the Minsk treaties but also does not implement them. It is easy to do. Russia is giving enough pretexts for it. They promised to remove their troops from Donetsk and let the international observers check. And to let them monitor the border. Minor details, in Russia's view.
Loss of almost-completely-Russian Crimea and heavily-Russian Donbas changed the Ukrainian electoral landscape. Pro-Ukraine and pro-EU voters are now a majority. The war consolidated pro-NATO sympathies, and they are also a majority now. Economic ties with the EU are growing stronger each year, economic ties to Russia are cut. Russia, meanwhile, is sanctioned and hurting. In the long run, the situation works in favor of Ukraine.
Each year, Russia tries to push its agenda. Make Ukraine accept LDNR back on Russia's terms. The last round was in October 2021, accompanied by some glorious saber-rattling. Talks of a full-scale invasion, nuclear bombing, WW3, all that jazz. With big military maneuvers this time. The result was as frustrating for Russia as ever. No result. "Please let international observers in first, and stop shooting Ukrainians, then we can talk." Russian foreign affairs ministry expressed their rage by publicly blaming France/Germany negotiators and publishing the diplomatic correspondence verbatim.
Next month, Russia started talking about disbanding NATO itself. "Give us Baltics, Poland, and all post-Soviet states."
NATO predictably rejected those insane demands.
//// here the facts end, and my attempt of comprehension begins
It looks like "disbanding NATO" demand was intentionally over the top. Designed to make actual Russian demands look tame and reasonable in comparison.
Now, after the NATO breakup demand was rejected as planned, Russia will try to do something bad to force the West back to the negotiation table. Unlikely a full-scale invasion, just something murderous enough to force Ukraine to take Russian demands seriously.
This entry was originally posted at https://tymofiy.dreamwidth.org/189157.html. Please comment there.
The protests erupted. Many Ukrainians saw the EU treaty as a chance to reform and improve their country. Some Ukrainian oligarchs were stand to profit from the lifted EU quotas. The country was divided on the issue, but pro-EU forces won. Yanukovich fled to Russia.
Russia enacted plan B: they seized Crimea and attempted to carve half of Ukraine into a "Novorossia" state. Russian propaganda was shouting that after a "coup," Ukraine "does not exist." Saboteur groups tried to incite breakaway rebellions in all large Eastern Ukrainian cities.
Surprisingly for Putin, who thought that most of Ukraine dreamed about joining Russia, the saboteurs succeeded only in two cities. Donetsk and Lugansk. In the following conflict, Russia supported them with arms and "volunteers," but the separatists were losing the war. So in August 2014, the Russian military stepped in directly and dealt a few crushing blows to the Ukrainian army.
After a military success, Russia imposed its will in the Minsk ceasefire agreement. Ukraine agreed to accept Donetsk/Lugansk as autonomies, effectively giving Russia 3 million votes to influence Ukrainian politics. And an uncontrolled chunk of the border. And permission to rewrite the Ukraine-EU trade treaty to Russia's liking.
The hostilities did not end, though. The actual shape of the border was still discussed with guns. Ukraine suffered another defeat in early 2015 in Debaltsevo, which led to the (worse) Minsk-2 ceasefire agreement. However, by summer 2015, Ukraine's military improved enough to be able to repel the Russians in battles near Marinka.
Those successes let Ukraine adopt a stalling strategy. Ukraine does not reject the Minsk treaties but also does not implement them. It is easy to do. Russia is giving enough pretexts for it. They promised to remove their troops from Donetsk and let the international observers check. And to let them monitor the border. Minor details, in Russia's view.
Loss of almost-completely-Russian Crimea and heavily-Russian Donbas changed the Ukrainian electoral landscape. Pro-Ukraine and pro-EU voters are now a majority. The war consolidated pro-NATO sympathies, and they are also a majority now. Economic ties with the EU are growing stronger each year, economic ties to Russia are cut. Russia, meanwhile, is sanctioned and hurting. In the long run, the situation works in favor of Ukraine.
Each year, Russia tries to push its agenda. Make Ukraine accept LDNR back on Russia's terms. The last round was in October 2021, accompanied by some glorious saber-rattling. Talks of a full-scale invasion, nuclear bombing, WW3, all that jazz. With big military maneuvers this time. The result was as frustrating for Russia as ever. No result. "Please let international observers in first, and stop shooting Ukrainians, then we can talk." Russian foreign affairs ministry expressed their rage by publicly blaming France/Germany negotiators and publishing the diplomatic correspondence verbatim.
Next month, Russia started talking about disbanding NATO itself. "Give us Baltics, Poland, and all post-Soviet states."
NATO predictably rejected those insane demands.
//// here the facts end, and my attempt of comprehension begins
It looks like "disbanding NATO" demand was intentionally over the top. Designed to make actual Russian demands look tame and reasonable in comparison.
Now, after the NATO breakup demand was rejected as planned, Russia will try to do something bad to force the West back to the negotiation table. Unlikely a full-scale invasion, just something murderous enough to force Ukraine to take Russian demands seriously.
This entry was originally posted at https://tymofiy.dreamwidth.org/189157.html. Please comment there.