Looks like since Intel released a bunch of better drivers this year, Ubuntu has been backporting them as far as...12.10. So the upgrade tried to use the old drivers, which were utterly broken. The new drivers worked like a charm. Unclear how free they are but if you install the experimental ppa drivers it seems to work.
Turns out in addition to the other stuff, you also need libminiupnpc8_1.6-2_amd64.deb, miniupnpc_1.6-2_amd64.deb or some variation thereof. Also, instead of just running 'qmake' you also need to use