London Mayoral elections
Hadn't appreciated until this weekend that the Mayoral election doesn't automatically count second-choice votes for the top two candidates and add them to first-choice votes. It only does this if no candidate gets 50% of first-choice votes.
Given that polls are showing Ken+Boris as reasonably close, and a consistent 10%-plus have other first-pref intentions, this should mean second-choice votes get counted.
But it's also plausible that Boris may get a strong lead, from having more appeal among the organised types who are more likely to vote, and from voters inclined slightly towards him having fewer plausible alternatives (the UKIP and similar aren't going to pick up nearly as many votes as the LibDems and Greens). So 50% first-prefs to Boris on the day could happen - I've seen some polls giving him 48%. Although most poll reports annoyingly don't give detail of whether they are of people's first or both prefs, or whether the pollees are registered or intend to vote, etc.
So it could be an idea for voters whose preference is mainly 'not-Boris' to upgrade Ken to first choice. Hmmm...
Edit: ciphergoth and djm4 have pointed out the basic flaw in my arithmetic. Nice to know it isn't just the media failing to pick up on an important point.
Given that polls are showing Ken+Boris as reasonably close, and a consistent 10%-plus have other first-pref intentions, this should mean second-choice votes get counted.
But it's also plausible that Boris may get a strong lead, from having more appeal among the organised types who are more likely to vote, and from voters inclined slightly towards him having fewer plausible alternatives (the UKIP and similar aren't going to pick up nearly as many votes as the LibDems and Greens). So 50% first-prefs to Boris on the day could happen - I've seen some polls giving him 48%. Although most poll reports annoyingly don't give detail of whether they are of people's first or both prefs, or whether the pollees are registered or intend to vote, etc.
So it could be an idea for voters whose preference is mainly 'not-Boris' to upgrade Ken to first choice. Hmmm...
Edit: ciphergoth and djm4 have pointed out the basic flaw in my arithmetic. Nice to know it isn't just the media failing to pick up on an important point.