(no subject)
...Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...
...Rita's central pressure is estimated to be 897 mb...making it the third most intense hurricane in terms of pressure for the Atlantic Basin...
However...the other models seem to have stabilized their forecast tracks farther west with the consensus having shifted a little more to the right. The official forecast track was also shifted to the right...but not as far as the GFS/GFDL models...
...This extremely favorable pattern...combined with 30-31c SSTs...has allowed Rita's explosive deepening to occur. The eye will be passing over the warm Gulf loop current during the next 12 hours...so some additional strengthening is possible... if an eyewall replacement cycle does not inhibit the intensification process...
...(the evolving pattern) should induce some steady weakening...but that type of outflow pattern...coupled with expected low vertical shear conditions...is still sufficient to support a category 4 hurricane until landfall occurs...
(on a Weather Underground blog): The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not
only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.
Um. If I'm reading the new Official Prediction correctly... and it holds ... which who knows at this point... yeah, um, the eye goes right over a little suburb of Houston called Sugar Land... or alternately, just to its west, the town of Richmond. (putting Sugar Land in the dangerous northeast section). Yeah, I'm being dramatic. Yeah, it could do any number of things between now and then. Yeah, my home - my home! well, my old home...
...yeah, where I grew up...hoping sometimes the whole area would just burn to the ground...
I'm almost shaking at this point. I hope Dad's being smart about this. I couldn't get in touch with him tonight.
Edit: Oh, yeah, the Houston Chronicle wrote this up in February. Perfect storm, coming ashore in Freeport. ...erm.
...Rita's central pressure is estimated to be 897 mb...making it the third most intense hurricane in terms of pressure for the Atlantic Basin...
However...the other models seem to have stabilized their forecast tracks farther west with the consensus having shifted a little more to the right. The official forecast track was also shifted to the right...but not as far as the GFS/GFDL models...
...This extremely favorable pattern...combined with 30-31c SSTs...has allowed Rita's explosive deepening to occur. The eye will be passing over the warm Gulf loop current during the next 12 hours...so some additional strengthening is possible... if an eyewall replacement cycle does not inhibit the intensification process...
...(the evolving pattern) should induce some steady weakening...but that type of outflow pattern...coupled with expected low vertical shear conditions...is still sufficient to support a category 4 hurricane until landfall occurs...
(on a Weather Underground blog): The latest runs of two key computer models, the GFS and GFDL, now indicate that the trough of low pressure that was expected to pick up Rita and pull her rapidly northward through Texas will not be strong enough to do so. Instead, these models forecast that Rita will make landfall near Galveston, penetrate inland between 50 and 200 miles, then slowly drift southwestward for nearly two days, as a high pressure ridge will build in to her north. Finally, a second trough is forecast to lift Rita out of Texas on Tuesday. If this scenario develops, not
only will the coast receive catastrophic damage from the storm surge, but interior Texas, including the Dallas/Fort Worth area, might see a deluge of 15 - 30 inches of rain. A huge portion of Texas would be a disaster area. We'll have to wait for the next set of model runs due out by tomorrow morning to know better.
Um. If I'm reading the new Official Prediction correctly... and it holds ... which who knows at this point... yeah, um, the eye goes right over a little suburb of Houston called Sugar Land... or alternately, just to its west, the town of Richmond. (putting Sugar Land in the dangerous northeast section). Yeah, I'm being dramatic. Yeah, it could do any number of things between now and then. Yeah, my home - my home! well, my old home...
...yeah, where I grew up...hoping sometimes the whole area would just burn to the ground...
I'm almost shaking at this point. I hope Dad's being smart about this. I couldn't get in touch with him tonight.
Edit: Oh, yeah, the Houston Chronicle wrote this up in February. Perfect storm, coming ashore in Freeport. ...erm.