Killer Cold/CoVID-19 Update
Well, the strange way the numbers are erupting gives me reason to pause.
Here they are: 77,200+ confirmed cases, 2,250 deaths, and 18,900+ recovered. The death rate from all known cases to "play out" is now 11%. (So, we can see that as more cases emerge, the known "done" cases and mortality rate went from 16%, to 12%, to 11%.)
After the virus was doubling it's numbers for several weeks in a row, it now seems to be slowing considerably, but that's ONLY if we believe the numbers from China. And I don't believe them. We've already learned they've changed how they verify numbers to keep their cases artificially low as of 2 weeks ago and still won't allow the CDC in to investigate at "ground zero."
Based on the numbers from the plague ship -- I mean the Princess Cruise line docked in Japan, this killer cold is WAY more contagious and deadly than the Chinese are reporting. And many, many of the former passengers who were rescued to go to their native nations have passed it on to one another and their families. It seems a 2 week quarantine isn't really cutting the mustard when it comes to clearing people.
I'm predicting that the cases will start exploding exponentially again at about the end of the first week of March. That's when we'll have enough cases spread around the world in nations who report at least a little more accurately than China after enough time to catch it and develop pneumonia and have to go to hospitals. If cases are plateauing out by that time then we may be okay until next fall.
Time will tell!
Here they are: 77,200+ confirmed cases, 2,250 deaths, and 18,900+ recovered. The death rate from all known cases to "play out" is now 11%. (So, we can see that as more cases emerge, the known "done" cases and mortality rate went from 16%, to 12%, to 11%.)
After the virus was doubling it's numbers for several weeks in a row, it now seems to be slowing considerably, but that's ONLY if we believe the numbers from China. And I don't believe them. We've already learned they've changed how they verify numbers to keep their cases artificially low as of 2 weeks ago and still won't allow the CDC in to investigate at "ground zero."
Based on the numbers from the plague ship -- I mean the Princess Cruise line docked in Japan, this killer cold is WAY more contagious and deadly than the Chinese are reporting. And many, many of the former passengers who were rescued to go to their native nations have passed it on to one another and their families. It seems a 2 week quarantine isn't really cutting the mustard when it comes to clearing people.
I'm predicting that the cases will start exploding exponentially again at about the end of the first week of March. That's when we'll have enough cases spread around the world in nations who report at least a little more accurately than China after enough time to catch it and develop pneumonia and have to go to hospitals. If cases are plateauing out by that time then we may be okay until next fall.
Time will tell!