a bunch of scientists say, "We aren't sure we need boosters yet."
https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673621020468-1631529799470.pdf
OK, fair enough.
But we have some disconcerting evidence from other countries about declining vaccine efficacy and we should be doing a much better job of studying this in the US than we have been so far.
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Overall I think telling people "breakthrough infections are rare" is false, and the data we did collect in the US through mid-July showed that 16% of deaths from COVID were in fully-vaccinated people. Yes, consistent with 80% vaccine efficacy, but,
Here's the problem with this statistic. It doesn't tell vaccinated people their true risk. Telling people that they have 80% less risk if they get vaccinated doesn't tell them how risky that remaining 20% is.
As an extreme example, let's consider Russian Roulette. A gun has 10 chambers. I randomly remove 8 of the 10 bullets, but 2 bullets remain. I've reduced your chance of death by 80%, does that mean you should put the gun to your head and pull the trigger? Of course not.
So what's the actual risk of dying from COVID for vaccinated people?
It depends on where you live, it depends on how old you are, it depends on what activities you're engaging in, and with whom. It's very complicated.
If you're in Florida, which is vaccinated about the same proportion as the rest of the country, and if 16% of the deaths are from breakthrough infections, then your overall chance of dying from COVID is about 10x that of dying from influenza if you're fully vaccinated, and 50x that of dying from influenza if not fully vaccinated.
There's fewer bullets in the chamber, but there's still bullets in the chamber.
Some people may not be comfortable returning to "normal" if vaccination has only reduced their chance of dying from 50x to 10x of pre-COVID "normal" influenza. Other people seem not to care that avoiding vaccination means their chance of dying is 50x of pre-COVID normal.
These are the kinds of statistics we aren't being told, instead we're told that breakthrough infections are "rare" and that the vaccines are "effective". But approximately 250 people are dying from breakthrough infections in the US each day right now. That's an annual rate of about 100,000 people per year dying from breakthrough infections. Maybe for you, that's OK, maybe for other people, they're still concerned.
And -- if the signs we're seeing in other countries are true, suggesting the vaccines are significantly less effective now than they were a few months ago, everything I've written above is an underestimate of your risk right now.
Maybe you're fine with that, once it is explained to you. But I think we aren't getting good explanations, instead we're getting, "Don't worry, you're fine if you get vaccinated, then it's no worse than the flu."
It is still much worse than the flu, even if you're vaccinated. People deserve to know this.
OK, fair enough.
But we have some disconcerting evidence from other countries about declining vaccine efficacy and we should be doing a much better job of studying this in the US than we have been so far.
-----
Overall I think telling people "breakthrough infections are rare" is false, and the data we did collect in the US through mid-July showed that 16% of deaths from COVID were in fully-vaccinated people. Yes, consistent with 80% vaccine efficacy, but,
Here's the problem with this statistic. It doesn't tell vaccinated people their true risk. Telling people that they have 80% less risk if they get vaccinated doesn't tell them how risky that remaining 20% is.
As an extreme example, let's consider Russian Roulette. A gun has 10 chambers. I randomly remove 8 of the 10 bullets, but 2 bullets remain. I've reduced your chance of death by 80%, does that mean you should put the gun to your head and pull the trigger? Of course not.
So what's the actual risk of dying from COVID for vaccinated people?
It depends on where you live, it depends on how old you are, it depends on what activities you're engaging in, and with whom. It's very complicated.
If you're in Florida, which is vaccinated about the same proportion as the rest of the country, and if 16% of the deaths are from breakthrough infections, then your overall chance of dying from COVID is about 10x that of dying from influenza if you're fully vaccinated, and 50x that of dying from influenza if not fully vaccinated.
There's fewer bullets in the chamber, but there's still bullets in the chamber.
Some people may not be comfortable returning to "normal" if vaccination has only reduced their chance of dying from 50x to 10x of pre-COVID "normal" influenza. Other people seem not to care that avoiding vaccination means their chance of dying is 50x of pre-COVID normal.
These are the kinds of statistics we aren't being told, instead we're told that breakthrough infections are "rare" and that the vaccines are "effective". But approximately 250 people are dying from breakthrough infections in the US each day right now. That's an annual rate of about 100,000 people per year dying from breakthrough infections. Maybe for you, that's OK, maybe for other people, they're still concerned.
And -- if the signs we're seeing in other countries are true, suggesting the vaccines are significantly less effective now than they were a few months ago, everything I've written above is an underestimate of your risk right now.
Maybe you're fine with that, once it is explained to you. But I think we aren't getting good explanations, instead we're getting, "Don't worry, you're fine if you get vaccinated, then it's no worse than the flu."
It is still much worse than the flu, even if you're vaccinated. People deserve to know this.