data nerd fascination with COVID
A big part of the fascination I've had for the COVID pandemic is how much data we have about it, and the ability to model it. Modeling the course of the pandemic became more complex over time, as human behaviors cycled between shutting everything down and pretending it isn't happening at all. Then we started vaccinating people, but then we began relaxing restrictions before most people were fully vaccinated -- meanwhile the virus has been evolving and the latest variants are significantly more contagious and dangerous than the original. I'm still processing the idea that the Delta variant produces viral loads 1000x higher than the original, that's astounding. No wonder even vaccinated people are now getting sick and passing along the virus.
Some states are now seeing higher COVID caseloads than ever before, higher even than the Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Years wave. 39 states are seeing caseloads more than double every two weeks. Hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise, although not as quickly as caseloads, but it has been typical for COVID deaths to lag cases by about a month.
I'm hopeful that the death rate won't climb as high as we saw during the Holiday wave, because older folks and others at more risk are more likely to have been vaccinated than younger folks, but 340 deaths per day -- our current average -- is still a higher death rate than we usually see from influenza, and it's only summertime, what will happen during the next Holiday season? What about when schools reopen next month? And we cannot assume that the Delta variant is the worst variant we'll see. A virus that is replicating 1000x faster is also mutating faster ...
Around the globe, COVID is killing about twice as many people this summer as it killed last summer.
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I'd only been carefully putting my toes in the water with respect to reopening my own life. I've only socialized with people I already know, who have been fully vaccinated. I'd started returning to restaurants, at first fearfully, but then more readily. I went to a family gathering where all adults were vaccinated. I put myself back on Grindr but hadn't met anybody yet. I got a haircut, I got a massage (both while masked).
Now I'm going to halt the indoor dining.
I haven't seen Sir Ben since before my car crash because he's isolating after being exposed to COVID while traveling. We're still waiting for his fully vaccinated household to completely test negative before we plan our next date.
T & I have been invited to a family wedding over Labor Day weekend. T no longer wants to attend, because of the Delta surge. I'm waiting to see. I'll probably ask how many people are attending and what the precautions will be before I decide whether to hop in the car and drive. I might decide not to go out of respect for T's safety, we'll see.
My federal agency was preparing to start gradually reopening after Labor Day, but yesterday they told us these plans are now on hold indefinitely again.
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It took the 1918 influenza pandemic more than two years to wind down, and some of the later waves were more deadly than the first wave. So it would make sense to assume that our COVID pandemic will also keep burning for another year before most people around the world have been exposed to it or vaccinated. But just as influenza continues today, I expect COVID will still be a thing 100 years from now, but we will all have adapted to it.
On average, we've had influenza pandemics every 25 years over the past century, perhaps COVID will act similarly. This pandemic will die down after next year, but a new type of killer variant could emerge in 2045. I don't know, assuming COVID is like influenza is probably too easy. And of course, influenza is still around, and will keep spinning off future pandemics. Respiratory viruses are not going away. As the world becomes ever more densely populated by humans and more urbanized, with ever higher levels of international travel, we make it easier for respiratory viruses to flourish and spread widely.
But they don't just infect humans. We already knew influenza spreads widely among animals, and between animals and humans. COVID is doing the same, infecting a wide range of animal species, including both wild and domesticated animals. We'll never get rid of it now, even your neighborhood deer have it, if you live in an edge-community like mine, suburbia surrounded by forest.
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So when are we going to take respiratory viruses more seriously and change our social behaviors to dampen their spread? The normal life everybody wants to go back to included: going to work sick, going to social events sick, people generally thinking nothing of showing up to others' houses while sick or hosting a party while sick. Hopping on a plane while sick. Presenting at a conference while sick. I remember in the past many times wanting to cancel going to an event because I was sick but the host would argue I should show up anyway, or would even claim I was using being sick as an excuse to bail.
People would just "power through" being sick and continue their routines. I remember reading articles about "When are you too sick to go to the gym?" I may never go to a public gym again, LOL.
It is possible to pass along respiratory viruses when you don't feel sick, but it was the norm in the US for people to go about their normal routines even if they felt sick. I've had wait staff work my table even though they are obviously sick. Coworkers sit down in my office even though they are obviously sick. During the winter months there was always at least one obviously sick person on every Metro car during rush hour.
I'd hoped that COVID would produce some lingering changes in our behaviors, but I don't know. Humans are too social. It reminds me of HIV and how most gay guys couldn't wait to ditch their condoms -- so now gonorrhea rates have doubled over the past 10 years, going up even faster among the gays, with more than half of gonorrhea infections now resistant to at least one antibiotic. Rates of syphilis are going up even faster. No, people want to return to normal, they don't want to wear condoms or masks, they don't want to limit their social engagements. People want to get drunk and party and fuck ;-) They just want to rely on their immune systems to keep them alive, like they usually do, as they do what they want to do.
Some states are now seeing higher COVID caseloads than ever before, higher even than the Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Years wave. 39 states are seeing caseloads more than double every two weeks. Hospitalizations and deaths are on the rise, although not as quickly as caseloads, but it has been typical for COVID deaths to lag cases by about a month.
I'm hopeful that the death rate won't climb as high as we saw during the Holiday wave, because older folks and others at more risk are more likely to have been vaccinated than younger folks, but 340 deaths per day -- our current average -- is still a higher death rate than we usually see from influenza, and it's only summertime, what will happen during the next Holiday season? What about when schools reopen next month? And we cannot assume that the Delta variant is the worst variant we'll see. A virus that is replicating 1000x faster is also mutating faster ...
Around the globe, COVID is killing about twice as many people this summer as it killed last summer.
-----
I'd only been carefully putting my toes in the water with respect to reopening my own life. I've only socialized with people I already know, who have been fully vaccinated. I'd started returning to restaurants, at first fearfully, but then more readily. I went to a family gathering where all adults were vaccinated. I put myself back on Grindr but hadn't met anybody yet. I got a haircut, I got a massage (both while masked).
Now I'm going to halt the indoor dining.
I haven't seen Sir Ben since before my car crash because he's isolating after being exposed to COVID while traveling. We're still waiting for his fully vaccinated household to completely test negative before we plan our next date.
T & I have been invited to a family wedding over Labor Day weekend. T no longer wants to attend, because of the Delta surge. I'm waiting to see. I'll probably ask how many people are attending and what the precautions will be before I decide whether to hop in the car and drive. I might decide not to go out of respect for T's safety, we'll see.
My federal agency was preparing to start gradually reopening after Labor Day, but yesterday they told us these plans are now on hold indefinitely again.
-----
It took the 1918 influenza pandemic more than two years to wind down, and some of the later waves were more deadly than the first wave. So it would make sense to assume that our COVID pandemic will also keep burning for another year before most people around the world have been exposed to it or vaccinated. But just as influenza continues today, I expect COVID will still be a thing 100 years from now, but we will all have adapted to it.
On average, we've had influenza pandemics every 25 years over the past century, perhaps COVID will act similarly. This pandemic will die down after next year, but a new type of killer variant could emerge in 2045. I don't know, assuming COVID is like influenza is probably too easy. And of course, influenza is still around, and will keep spinning off future pandemics. Respiratory viruses are not going away. As the world becomes ever more densely populated by humans and more urbanized, with ever higher levels of international travel, we make it easier for respiratory viruses to flourish and spread widely.
But they don't just infect humans. We already knew influenza spreads widely among animals, and between animals and humans. COVID is doing the same, infecting a wide range of animal species, including both wild and domesticated animals. We'll never get rid of it now, even your neighborhood deer have it, if you live in an edge-community like mine, suburbia surrounded by forest.
-----
So when are we going to take respiratory viruses more seriously and change our social behaviors to dampen their spread? The normal life everybody wants to go back to included: going to work sick, going to social events sick, people generally thinking nothing of showing up to others' houses while sick or hosting a party while sick. Hopping on a plane while sick. Presenting at a conference while sick. I remember in the past many times wanting to cancel going to an event because I was sick but the host would argue I should show up anyway, or would even claim I was using being sick as an excuse to bail.
People would just "power through" being sick and continue their routines. I remember reading articles about "When are you too sick to go to the gym?" I may never go to a public gym again, LOL.
It is possible to pass along respiratory viruses when you don't feel sick, but it was the norm in the US for people to go about their normal routines even if they felt sick. I've had wait staff work my table even though they are obviously sick. Coworkers sit down in my office even though they are obviously sick. During the winter months there was always at least one obviously sick person on every Metro car during rush hour.
I'd hoped that COVID would produce some lingering changes in our behaviors, but I don't know. Humans are too social. It reminds me of HIV and how most gay guys couldn't wait to ditch their condoms -- so now gonorrhea rates have doubled over the past 10 years, going up even faster among the gays, with more than half of gonorrhea infections now resistant to at least one antibiotic. Rates of syphilis are going up even faster. No, people want to return to normal, they don't want to wear condoms or masks, they don't want to limit their social engagements. People want to get drunk and party and fuck ;-) They just want to rely on their immune systems to keep them alive, like they usually do, as they do what they want to do.