Democrats could not keep their New Hampshire special elections streak going. The Republican won by a convincing margin, despite 17% of the vote going to the Libertarian. See here for some background. There is one more New Hampshire special election scheduled in the near future, on September 20th ( Read more... )

You want obscure? I've got obscure.

Tomorrow is election day in Rockingham District 14 in New Hampshire, for a special election for one of four hundred (yes, four hundred) spots in the New Hampshire lower house ( Read more... )

In Wisconsin. And in New Hampshire ( Read more... )

In the 36th Congressional District of California (encompassing Redondo Beach), Democrat Janice Hahn is running against Tea Party candidate Craig Huey in a special election runoff (recall that the primary, amongst a gaggle of Democrats (including CA Secretary of State Debra Bowen) and Republicans was chronicled here). The only poll done for the ( Read more... )

Yes, hot off the Canadian and Scottish elections and UK referendum, it's time for some good ole' real American electioneering.

The California 36th Congressional District is having a special election on Tuesday, May 17th, to replace Democrat Jane Harman, who resigned a couple of months after she was re-elected (go figure) to become the head of the ( Read more... )

Putin may not be encroaching on Alaskan air space at the moment, but what with Ted Steven's death, and Levi Johnson running for Mayor of Wasilla, there's been plenty to keep Alaskans awake during their 20 hour days this summer.

Now all hell has broken loose in the race for the Alaskan Senate seat up for election. Lisa Murkowski, the sitting ( Read more... )

Last week's post.

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com has transitioned to the New York Times. He debuts his new Senate race forecasting model, and has a long discussion about methodology.

Note: Last week's post inadvertently left out the Senate race in North Dakota. It's not much of a race, as the Republican has a 100% chance of taking over the ( Read more... )

All 435 seats are up for election in November. Currently, there are 255 Democratic House members, 178 Republicans and 2 seats which are open. 218 seats (and votes) are needed to control the House of Representatives and thereby control its rules and agenda. In order for the Republicans to take control, they would need to win 40 seats (178 + 40 = ( Read more... )

The outcomes of Proposition 16 and 17 had not yet been decided when the presses had to roll, so in case you missed it, both went down to defeat after leading most of the night ( Read more... )

The bets are who controls the Senate and the House in January, 2011. Giving significant odds, I took the D's and Schmengie the R's in both Houses. See here for details. The R's need to net 10 seats to take control of the Senate (a 50-50 result is a null bet). The R's need to net approximately 37 seats to take control of the House.

( How do things look now? )