My forecasting practice begins!
Seeing as though I'll be graduating in just 2 months, I figure it's time I dust off some of my forecasting skills that have remained relatively dormant since I started working heavily on the thesis. I will be making forecasts when I get out of school, so some practice now might be a good thing.
So what's going on out there in the weather world????
At upper levels ....
New England has remained relatively dry and at or slightly below average temperature-wise, owing to the presence of a pesky, broad, deep-layer shortwave trough thats parked itself over Hudson's Bay. Some of you might have heard of the record-setting snowfall in Buffalo (lake effect induced!) that has left Buffalo residents w/o electric power or water--this was the system that generated it. Until that upper-level trough leaves New England, more of the chilly late fall temperatures can be expected. But fortunately, it appears as though this trough will lift out by Wednesday.
But it's not just New England that's been affected by this trough I've alluded to above. Much of the eastern third of the US is dominated by this feature, resulting in colder than average temperatures across much of the South too. A Rex block/split flow regime characterizes the upper flow pattern across the West U.S., with a closed low across the desert Southwest that has slowly moved eastward.
Both operational models (i.e. the WRF and GFS) generally show a change in the upper level pattern, transitioning into a ridge-like pattern across the eastern U.S. by Wednesday, as a powerful trough digs across the western and central U.S. Things across the east could get quite nasty for this upcoming weekend, as a deep trough parks itself across the Ohio River Valley/TN/northern Gulf states. So the ridge-like pattern, that would normally favor a warm-up, would appear to be short-lived, unfortunately.
At the surface ...
New England's been under the presence of a relatively strong Canadian high pressure area, which has kept the area cold and dry for several days. This high should begin to shift offshore by midweek, leaving New England in a south to southwest flow (which is good for a warmup), as heights rise aloft.
A weak low pressure is currently sitting across west Texas. This has led to wet conditions across this area, and it's this low that will be the major player this week.
Models indicate that as the major Pacific shortwave dives southeastward by midweek, this low will get much better organized and should actually become a pretty significant storm for the midwest by midweek. This low will then migrate northeastward into the Great Lakes/western NY by Thursday into Friday. The GFS shows a bagginess to the surface pressure isobars across North Carolina on Friday...so I'm wondering if there might be some secondary cyclogenesis across the NC tidewaters, which would REALLY throw a curveball into the forecast for the weekend.
A look at the tropics ...
Tropics are quiet across the Atlantic, as wind shear remains high and nothing looks really organized. This year's certainly been a bust, hasn't it? It looks to continue through next week.
The forecast ???
Based on the models, for New England, a warmup can be expected by midweek, albeit not a significant warmup...highs might only be in the low to MAYBE mid 60s. Clouds should enter the forecast by Thursday, and chances for rain will also increase on Thursday into the better part of the weekend.
So what's going on out there in the weather world????
At upper levels ....
New England has remained relatively dry and at or slightly below average temperature-wise, owing to the presence of a pesky, broad, deep-layer shortwave trough thats parked itself over Hudson's Bay. Some of you might have heard of the record-setting snowfall in Buffalo (lake effect induced!) that has left Buffalo residents w/o electric power or water--this was the system that generated it. Until that upper-level trough leaves New England, more of the chilly late fall temperatures can be expected. But fortunately, it appears as though this trough will lift out by Wednesday.
But it's not just New England that's been affected by this trough I've alluded to above. Much of the eastern third of the US is dominated by this feature, resulting in colder than average temperatures across much of the South too. A Rex block/split flow regime characterizes the upper flow pattern across the West U.S., with a closed low across the desert Southwest that has slowly moved eastward.
Both operational models (i.e. the WRF and GFS) generally show a change in the upper level pattern, transitioning into a ridge-like pattern across the eastern U.S. by Wednesday, as a powerful trough digs across the western and central U.S. Things across the east could get quite nasty for this upcoming weekend, as a deep trough parks itself across the Ohio River Valley/TN/northern Gulf states. So the ridge-like pattern, that would normally favor a warm-up, would appear to be short-lived, unfortunately.
At the surface ...
New England's been under the presence of a relatively strong Canadian high pressure area, which has kept the area cold and dry for several days. This high should begin to shift offshore by midweek, leaving New England in a south to southwest flow (which is good for a warmup), as heights rise aloft.
A weak low pressure is currently sitting across west Texas. This has led to wet conditions across this area, and it's this low that will be the major player this week.
Models indicate that as the major Pacific shortwave dives southeastward by midweek, this low will get much better organized and should actually become a pretty significant storm for the midwest by midweek. This low will then migrate northeastward into the Great Lakes/western NY by Thursday into Friday. The GFS shows a bagginess to the surface pressure isobars across North Carolina on Friday...so I'm wondering if there might be some secondary cyclogenesis across the NC tidewaters, which would REALLY throw a curveball into the forecast for the weekend.
A look at the tropics ...
Tropics are quiet across the Atlantic, as wind shear remains high and nothing looks really organized. This year's certainly been a bust, hasn't it? It looks to continue through next week.
The forecast ???
Based on the models, for New England, a warmup can be expected by midweek, albeit not a significant warmup...highs might only be in the low to MAYBE mid 60s. Clouds should enter the forecast by Thursday, and chances for rain will also increase on Thursday into the better part of the weekend.