Filling some gaps about the first war (part 5)
As we arrive at the parts of the tale for which canon has more information my speculations become more detailed. This posting is much longer than the previous ones. I hope you find it useful.
The prophecy must have shaken Tom. For the first time in a long while he felt threatened. I think he put some of his projects on hold in the meanwhile. Taking over Hogwarts and the Ministry would have to wait a bit. He even got delayed in his very secret project to make an even more awesome hiding place for Hufflepuff's cup (because I can't believe giving it to Bella was his first choice; where? maybe under Borgin and Burke's, or maybe under Hepzibah's home, who knows?) His top priority was to find out who was this predicted potential vanquisher and how he was going to stop him.
At some point Tom revealed to Severus that he understood the prophecy to be about James and Lily Potter's infant son. Very shortly after that (as soon as he managed to arrange the encounter) Severus met with Albus and delivered these news. We know from the description of bare trees with fallen leaves flying in the wind that it was late autumn, maybe early winter (late November to January). From the need to meet in secret we know it was before Severus started teaching, and from Severus' 'hide them all, then' we know it was after Harry was born - autumn of 1980 or early winter of 1981.
Some fans think Albus' question "what message does Lord Voldemort have for me?" indicates that the two of them were in the habit of meeting for such exchanges of information. I don't see how this works. If they had met before they'd have an established protocol, Severus wouldn't be begging for his life. To me it was clear this was their first meeting since the prophecy. The only way this could have been otherwise was if the encounter was staged for an audience - possibly the Wizengamot or the Aurors who were expected to view the memory as evidence for Severus' defection from Voldemort's side. OTOH while Dumbledore speaks as though he knows Severus is a DE, Sirius never learned of this fact. This suggests Albus learned only shortly before the meeting of Severus' DE membership (IMO most likely from Severus himself, when he explained why he wanted to meet with Albus) - so never passed the information on because he didn't want to sabotage his mole. Alternatively, Albus was hiding the identity of a DE for a time from members of the Order for no obvious reason.
So why did Voldemort reveal his plan to Severus at this time?
Option 1: Tom had recently arrived at the conclusion that the prophecy was about the Potter infant. He was running it by Severus - the one DE who knew of the prophecy - to brag about his brilliance figuring it out or to test if Severus agreed with his interpretation.
Option 2: Tom was looking for ideas how to get close to the Potters. Knowing that Severus was at school with them, and with him already knowing about the prophecy makes it possible to ask for his opinion.
I imagine a conversation along the following lines:
- Severus!
- Yes my Lord?
- When you attended school, wasn't there one James Potter in your year?
- Yes there was, Master.
- Do you know who his close associates were?
- Well, his usual partner in crime was Black. The older one, Sirius. He was always the closest to Potter, and the only one Potter respected. Then there was Lupin - completely lacking in spine. The Old Fool made him prefect in hope he'd control the other two but he never had the guts to contradict them. And then there was Pettigrew. Always hanging on, accepting humiliation and ridicule to be let into their gang.
- Thank you Severus for this information, it will come very handy. You remember that prophecy of the Trelawney woman which you reported to me? I have concluded Potter's son fulfills the wording. I need a way to get close to them.
- Master!? Do you remember the reward I requested, in reward for the prophecy?
- Oh, Potter's wife? If she is sensible, if she knows what is good for her, she has nothing to fear.
Severus, knowing Lily won't be 'sensible' the way his master meant it, made an appointment with Albus. And after the part we saw added the remaining details, such as Tom's intent to recruit one of the Marauders. Now Severus would think Sirius would be the one Tom would prefer, because of his closeness to James. And Albus would suspect Sirius first because in the werewolf incident he already showed willingness to endanger a close friend in order to get at an enemy. But Tom would prefer Peter, because someone who was humiliated by his friends would be just the type he knew how to turn against them.
Option 3: Tom told Severus about his plans because now that his plans regarding the prophecy were coming along he was going to assign Severus the task of getting the DADA position so he could act as Tom's agent at the school.
A variant of this scenario has Tom assigning Severus with setting a 'top secret' meeting with Albus in which Severus was supposed to spin a tale of deepest remorse so he would be able to infiltrate Hogwarts - IOW that Tom expected the hilltop meeting, and Severus' only deviation from Tom's orders was that he actually meant the promises he made to Dumbledore.
Option 4: Since previously Severus had asked for Lily in reward for delivering the prophecy, Tom wanted to test how Severus would respond to the targeting of Lily's son as a loyalty test before assigning Severus the mission of becoming his Hogwarts agent. (Yes, Tom seriously underestimated Severus' ability at Occlumency.)
At the very least the first two scenarios contradict the timeline claimed by Sirius, where he accused Peter of spying for Voldemort for over a year. The last two are compatible with Peter already spying on the Potters at the time the conversation is held. But Sirius may have been mistaken about the beginning of Peter's spying. He may have attributed some stretch of misfortune to the Order to Peter unjustly. Or perhaps Peter was already serving Tom as a spy on the Order in general earlier, and was tasked with spying specifically on the Potters after Tom's conversation with Severus.
In POA Cornelius Fudge and Minerva say several things:
- A spy tipped Albus off that Voldemort was specifically after the Potters
- A spy close to the Potters was informing Voldemort of their movements
- A spy was passing on a lot of information to Voldemort
Presumably the information was specific to the Order, and distinct from information about the Ministry, gathered by Rookwood and his network, though it wasn't limited to information on the Potters. When did Albus or the Potters become aware that indeed someone was reporting on them? We know the Potters and Sirius suspected the spy was Remus. In Lily's letter to Sirius she mentions that Peter had been for a visit, but makes no mention of Remus. In the Order photograph Moody mentions Remus among the people who were immediately visible (those at the front of the group), whereas Sirius, James, Peter and Lily were sitting together in the back - Moody had to ask several images to move aside in order to reveal them. Taken together, by the time the photo was taken Remus was already suspected by the Potters and Sirius and was excluded from their company. The photo was taken 2 weeks before the McKinnons died, and this death was the one Lily thought Peter was upset about when he visited them around the time of Harry's birthday. Thus the photo was taken in early July, by which time Remus was no longer included among the Potters' friends. And we know that at least Sirius didn't change his mind about Remus until the night of the Godric's Hollow attack. Which means that if there had been any attacks on the Potters, they had ceased once they excluded Remus. This may explain the Potters' complacence: it seemed to them that they had found the spy and taken action to avoid him. Why is Dumbledore being such a worry-wort when they hadn't been attacked in months? Though why was he letting Remus still participate in order activities?
So why did they suspect Remus? Maybe his being a werewolf had a part, maybe the way he was reserved and not fully involved in their various 'pranks', and the fact that he was considered more intelligent and competent than Peter. But perhaps he was suspected because Peter framed him. After all, frame-ups are Voldemort's modus operandi, and Peter's framing of Sirius was planned in advance, why not have a double frame-up? First cast one person as the spy, thus distracting attention from oneself, continue unsuspected until the last moment, then frame the last person who knows the truth.
If that is the case - were whatever attacks that happened initially done in earnest, or were they just part of the frame-up? The answer rests on two questions: Could Peter have led Voldemort to the Potters while they were in hiding but not yet under Fidelius? And was there a reason for Voldemort to delay his attack for months, maybe a year since Peter was recruited as his spy?
In the books we see that security measures other than Fidelius fall into several categories:
- There are means to prevent teleporting into a specific place - anti-Apparition charms, blocking a floo connection
- Security that lets through any person who says the correct pass-phrase or does the correct series of actions - tapping the right spots in the right sequence with one's wand, applying blood (anyone's) to the right place, winning a game of chess, drinking a protective potion.
- Spells that disguise a location such that only someone who knows what to look for where can see it
- Security that is tied to a person's identity (eg mokeskin pouches, the security system for prophecy records).
Peter couldn't have worked around the first type, and indeed we see Voldemort entering the Potter home via the front door rather than Apparating directly in. But he certainly could have shown Voldemort what to do for measures of the second kind and lead him into a place protected by measures of the third kind as we see Harry doing with Ron (upon his return to the forest) and possibly Arthur with Scrimgeour, as well as the various wedding guests. For the fourth type of security measures Peter would have had to be present. If there was no limit on the number of people entering as long as one of them matched what the wards were looking for, Tom's way was clear. If the wards only allowed one person in, he would have had to possess Peter in order to gain entrance.
(Hmm, Tom's protections for his various Horcruxes did not depend on identity. Did he foresee the possibility of visiting them while in a different body?)
If as I think Tom could have entered the hidden Potter home before Peter became the Secret Keeper, why did he not attack Harry much earlier? Recall that Albus speculates in HBP that Tom was planning to make his 6th and last Horcrux with Harry's death. Also, remember that Albus was convinced Tom would be back, yet never went looking for a Horcrux. Because he knew it was Harry. It makes no sense for a Dark Lord fearing vanquishment to delay making his (only, as far as Albus knew) Horcrux until after dealing with his predicted vanquisher. But if a half-prepared Horcrux object had been found on site, and knowing that Tom only made a promise regarding Lily, I can imagine Albus thinking the plan had been to make the Horcrux with James' death, but Tom must have made some mistake. Then he went on to kill Lily and attempt to kill Harry too, leaving his soul fragile - and one fragment ended up in Harry's head. Which object could Tom have used in this attempt at making his final Horcrux? To be consistent with his existing collection, he would want an item that used to belong to Godric Gryffindor. I'm guessing he was relying on his new agent at Hogwarts to find such an item. And he delayed the attack until an object he thought suitable was available. Possibly Severus brought him a fake copy of Gryffindor's sword (not necessarily the same one Severus sent to Bella's vault in DH). Lack of previous access to a suitable object would explain why Tom never made the 6th Horcrux all those decades.
Who was Peter's contact person among the DEs? Who among them knew about his recruitment? When did he become Marked? The natural person for this role would be Rookwood, especially if Peter was employed by the Ministry. Consider also that all the way until June 1994 Severus never learned that Peter had been the spy. This implies that neither of the free DEs Severus saw over the years filled him in. Perhaps they didn't know either? Also, Rookwood remained free until Igor Karkaroff turned him in, presumably because Severus didn't know him as a DE. Of course the contact person or handler may have been someone else, in which case it would likely have been among the DEs we never even heard of. Perhaps in addition to a spy network within the Ministry there was one operating in Diagon/Knockturn Ally? As for when Peter got his Mark, I doubt Tom would have wanted Peter to risk discovery - it would have been too hard to replace him. I'm with Jodel - Peter received his Mark as a 'reward' after he told Tom the Potters' secret - at which point he became dispensable and could start earning his keep as a run-of-the-mill DE. After all, Voldemort's normal way of rewarding servants for good performance is to give them more opportunities to risk their lives for his causes (see Barty, Bellatrix). Or perhaps the Mark served as insurance to Tom that if Peter had given him false information he wouldn't be able to escape. (I wonder what the Dark Mark looked like when Peter took his rat form.)
In the circle of DEs in GOF Peter's position is between the gap of 6 (3 dead DEs, Igor, Severus and Barty Jr) and Lucius. Yet we can be certain neither Severus nor Igor knew he was a DE and it is unlikely Lucius did. I'm thinking Peter was given the place of a DE who was killed in the late part of the war. Maybe Evan Rosier, who was known both to Severus and to Igor and was related to Lucius' wife. (And Barty may have been given Wilkes' place, or the place of some other dead DE whose name we never learned.)
If indeed in the late months of the war Tom was filling vacant spots in his circle, maybe the Ministry and the Order were getting better at killing true DEs. This would be one outcome of the recruitment of Severus as Albus' spy.
What information could Severus have provided?
- The initial warning that Voldemort was targeting the Potters
- Some indication that Voldemort had a spy in the Order, maybe specifically from within the Potters' circle?
- Information about his own orders from Voldemort
- Whatever Voldemort was boasting about to his followers
- The working of the Dark Mark
- Names of some DEs (besides Aberforth's reports about who was socializing with the original ones)
- Possibly evidence tying DEs with specific crimes
The last three enabled the capture and killing of DEs. From Karkaroff we have hints about the timeline: He was aware of Travers' involvement in the death of the McKinnons in late July (shortly before Lily's letter and 2 weeks after the Order photo was taken) but not in Dolohov's involvement in the deaths of the Prewett brothers (who are present in the photo). Nor is he aware of Evan Rosier's death and the capture of Dolohov, Mulciber (Sr or Jr?) and Travers. We also know that Igor was captured after Moody had followed him for 6 months. So it looks like Igor Karkaroff was captured in late July or early August, following an initial tip-off in January or February (maybe followed by further information at later times), consistent with the tip-off having originally come from Severus and passed on to Moody from Albus.
Canon names 29 of the DEs. If we exclude Regulus Black, who was long dead when Severus turned, and Severus himself, we have canon evidence that of the remaining 27 the following had some kind of run-ins with the Aurors from around the time of Severus' defection: Wilkes and Evan Rosier were killed (there is some chance Wilkes died a bit earlier, though), Karkaroff, Dolohov, Mulciber and Travers were arrested during the last 4 months of the war (anyone arrested after the war ended for crimes committed during the war could clear themselves with Imperius), the 3 Lestranges (or at least 2 of them) were arrested (for the first time) at some point, Lucius Malfoy, Macnair, Avery, Crabbe, Goyle and Nott were arrested after the war ended. There may have been others: we do not know the names of 3 of the 10 DEs who escaped Azkaban in OOTP, there were at least 3 DEs who died after Voldemort's fall (whether in Azkaban or while resisting arrest) leaving additional gaps in the circle, and there may have been other DEs besides Wilkes and Rosier who died before Voldemort's fall and had their places taken by new recruits. I'd say somewhere between a quarter and a third of all DEs of the first war were either killed or arrested from around the time of Severus' defection on. It is likely that he reported to Albus, who in turn passed the information to the Aurors he trusted, namely Alastor Moody and Frank Longbottom (I doubt Alice was out chasing DEs now that she was caring for an infant). As a result, half the cells in Azkaban were full because of Moody, as Charlie Weasley explained, and Frank Longbottom became a 'popular Auror'. (Were the other half of the cells full of people who were falsely accused of being Dark Wizards because of Crouch's policies?)
Note that merely having the information that someone was probably a DE did not help much with arresting them - Dumbledore knew Dolohov was a DE since Tom's return well before the war started, yet he was only arrested towards the end of the war. So I'm guessing Severus must have passed on more information that enabled the captures - places where they could be found, crimes they could be accused of. And while Tom was still alive, anyone who knew of the Dark Mark could verify that the captive indeed was a DE. OTOH once the war was over the Ministry probably rounded up whomever they still had any tips on, at least for interrogation. And if the DEs had any brains, they came quietly and claimed Imperius. Works better than risking death or becoming a fugitive.
How did Severus acquire his information? If indeed the DEs were supposed to hide their identities from each other he would have had to guess identities by voice, mannerism and very limited visual information. Someone like Rowle may have stood out for his build, Bellatrix for her voice (and tendency to engage in baby-talk). For others he had to rely on more subtle details. The result, as Terri pointed out, must have been that he was better at identifying those he already knew from up close - mostly Slytherins from years near his own, with the addition of Lucius Malfoy and his buddies. And if I am right about Severus being the DE-healer, much information was acquired from what his patients revealed while not-quite in control. He was betraying his closest friends and people who trusted his help.
What did Albus learn from the rest of Severus' information? Severus delivered the initial warning in late fall or early winter. The Potters became convinced that Remus was Voldemort's spy some time before mid-July. This may have been based on some run-in with DEs or information Albus received from Severus. But while the Potters and Sirius were convinced they had removed the true spy from their circle Albus was convinced there still was someone spying on them, which was why he offered to become their Secret Keeper. This conviction must have been based on something Severus had said, because there were no (more) attacks on the Potters. Either Voldemort was boasting specifically to Severus that his plan to attack the Prophecy boy was on track or he boasted to the DEs in general that he would soon land a decisive attack that would dash the Old Fool's hopes (or something along those lines). On top of that Severus was instructed to apply for the DADA job at Hogwarts. Which meant Voldemort would want him to do something for him at the school during the 1981-2 academic year. Perhaps he believed that once the threat of the prophecy was dealt with he'd be unbeatable, and would seek a take-over.
I find it hard to understand why in this atmosphere Albus had the Order pose for a group photo sometime in the first half of July 1981. He knew of a spy, and he was expecting Tom to make a move sometime soon. Was he setting the entire Order as some kind of bait? Did he hope to capture the spy somehow by inviting Voldemort to take Order members out? Of the 22 people Moody pointed out to Harry in the picture 6 died before the Godric's Hollow attack. (Caradoc Dearborn disappeared sometime in January 1982 and the Longbottoms were also attacked some time after Voldemort's downfall.)
Probably the day the photo was taken Albus noticed James' invisibility cloak and (later?) asked to borrow it. And never returned it while James lived. Despite the fact that by this time James and Lily were in hiding and never left home without the cloak. Moreover, they may have thought to use the cloak as an emergency measure in the event of an attack (to sneak out past the attackers?) The photo-op may have been the last time James and Lily left the house.
How did Albus justify his actions to himself? Terri proposed that Albus, knowing Tom had the Resurrection Stone and believing that he was seeking immortality by acquiring the other Hallows, feared that Tom would take the cloak if he were to find it when he came to attack the Potters. Better keep it safe (and if that made Albus one step closer to owning the Hallows then it's all good). Besides, the Potters were being reckless leaving home under the cloak. If they couldn't act responsibly they needed some limits imposed on them for their own good. Besides, one doesn't necessarily need an invisibility cloak to be invisible, there were other ways ... And thus the idea to offer them the Fidelius Charm with Albus as Secret Keeper was born.
Meanwhile Tom was working on his plans. Things were looking up: Rookwood's network had infiltrated many Ministry departments and offices, he had young Barty, who could be used to bring his father down, Wormtail was positioned to lead him to the Potters whenever he was ready and now Severus Snapewould be at Hogwarts starting from September. What was he going to do with Severus? Well, first he needs an ancient and valuable artifact (preferably something that had once been owned by Godric Gryffindor) for his sixth Horcrux. That would allow the completion of his seven-part-soul with the killing of the Potter infant. With that threat gone nothing will stand in his way. Time to get the Old Fool out of Hogwarts. Wouldn't it be delicious to do so with the basilisk, waiting patiently all these years? The Fool would know it was him, the only remaining heir of Salazar Slytherin, but would not know how he controlled the snake. All that needed to happen was that Lucius Malfoy planted the diary on some naive, lonely student. The Fool would watch and investigate - and Snape would be there to confuse the evidence. In the end the Fool would take the blame for failing yet again to stop the basilisk, the Slytherins on the Board of Directors would make sure of that! Or... better yet, have Snape frame the Dumb One as the culprit. After all, he was there the first time around too. Yes, send the Fool to Azkaban and he wouldn't interfere anymore. And then - expose Crouch as a hypocrite who was sending Aurors after Death Eaters while raising one at home. Soon enough the Ministry would be in his hands as well. Oh, sweet days are near ...
(Jodel raised the possibility that Tom only Horcruxified the diary shortly before giving it to Lucius, maybe when he killed Dorcas Meadows of the Order. If I understand her correctly the dairy may have been the first in many, each containing memories of Tom's magical experiments from the respective time, and he chose to Horcruxify the one from 1943 when it occurred to him it could be used to open the Chamber. If this is the case then it seems he deliberately left the choice of at least one Horcrux 'open' for decades. I'm not sure if I completely agree.)
Back to Albus and the protection of the Potters: If he got them to use the Fidelius Charm the cloak would surely be superfluous - as long as the charm held. (And he could keep it and play with it and be Almost Master of Death and...) The Fidelius was as good as the Secret Keeper. Who could possibly be better than him? Especially since the Potters were not listening to his warnings about the spy still close to them. Well, they could avoid the spy problem if one of the Potters were to become Secret Keeper, but they have shown recklessness in the past - what if the Secret Keeper left the house and got caught? Maybe better not to raise this possibility at all - surely they'd see how he was the safest option? (Besides, if they became Secret Keepers he wouldn't have control on who can come to their home - he couldn't bear the thought. And.... well.... if he is the Secret Keeper, then whenever he decides the time has come for Tom to mark his future vanquisher, all Albus has to do is send a hand-written note to Tom via Snape. Easy.)
So Albus described the spell to the Potters, neglecting to mention that they didn't have to appoint a third party as Secret Keeper. But unfortunately they did not agree he was the best person for the job. Why so?
First, they were not raised for years in total worship of Albus Dumbledore. He hadn't been rescuing them from dementors and murderous DADA teachers on a yearly basis, nor did they listen to an annual speech about how he knew everything about some lethally dangerous development all along. In fact, James and Sirius had good reason to believe Albus knew little if anything about many of their exploits.
Second, they were starting to suspect there was something not-quite-honest about Albus' tactics as leader of the Order: It had been months since they had determined to their satisfaction that Remus(!?!) had been spying on them to Voldemort - yet Dumbledore let him continue to participate in all Order activities. Then Bathilda Bagshot started talking about how Dumbledore had once been Grindelwald's best friend. Ay first they just thought she was being batty, but then she showed them those letters about how they were going to promote 'the greater good' - Yikes! How far can they trust Dumbledore now?
But perhaps there was another reason, one James, Lily and Sirius were not aware of. Peter must have realized that if anyone but himself is to become the Potters' Secret Keeper then his mission was doomed (and if he didn't, his master would have figured it out fast enough). Now getting the Potters to choose him over Dumbledore wasn't likely whatsoever, but he might be able to get them to choose him over Sirius. So he needed to nudge them into choosing Sirius. We know magic can help with this sort of thing.
The prophecy must have shaken Tom. For the first time in a long while he felt threatened. I think he put some of his projects on hold in the meanwhile. Taking over Hogwarts and the Ministry would have to wait a bit. He even got delayed in his very secret project to make an even more awesome hiding place for Hufflepuff's cup (because I can't believe giving it to Bella was his first choice; where? maybe under Borgin and Burke's, or maybe under Hepzibah's home, who knows?) His top priority was to find out who was this predicted potential vanquisher and how he was going to stop him.
At some point Tom revealed to Severus that he understood the prophecy to be about James and Lily Potter's infant son. Very shortly after that (as soon as he managed to arrange the encounter) Severus met with Albus and delivered these news. We know from the description of bare trees with fallen leaves flying in the wind that it was late autumn, maybe early winter (late November to January). From the need to meet in secret we know it was before Severus started teaching, and from Severus' 'hide them all, then' we know it was after Harry was born - autumn of 1980 or early winter of 1981.
Some fans think Albus' question "what message does Lord Voldemort have for me?" indicates that the two of them were in the habit of meeting for such exchanges of information. I don't see how this works. If they had met before they'd have an established protocol, Severus wouldn't be begging for his life. To me it was clear this was their first meeting since the prophecy. The only way this could have been otherwise was if the encounter was staged for an audience - possibly the Wizengamot or the Aurors who were expected to view the memory as evidence for Severus' defection from Voldemort's side. OTOH while Dumbledore speaks as though he knows Severus is a DE, Sirius never learned of this fact. This suggests Albus learned only shortly before the meeting of Severus' DE membership (IMO most likely from Severus himself, when he explained why he wanted to meet with Albus) - so never passed the information on because he didn't want to sabotage his mole. Alternatively, Albus was hiding the identity of a DE for a time from members of the Order for no obvious reason.
So why did Voldemort reveal his plan to Severus at this time?
Option 1: Tom had recently arrived at the conclusion that the prophecy was about the Potter infant. He was running it by Severus - the one DE who knew of the prophecy - to brag about his brilliance figuring it out or to test if Severus agreed with his interpretation.
Option 2: Tom was looking for ideas how to get close to the Potters. Knowing that Severus was at school with them, and with him already knowing about the prophecy makes it possible to ask for his opinion.
I imagine a conversation along the following lines:
- Severus!
- Yes my Lord?
- When you attended school, wasn't there one James Potter in your year?
- Yes there was, Master.
- Do you know who his close associates were?
- Well, his usual partner in crime was Black. The older one, Sirius. He was always the closest to Potter, and the only one Potter respected. Then there was Lupin - completely lacking in spine. The Old Fool made him prefect in hope he'd control the other two but he never had the guts to contradict them. And then there was Pettigrew. Always hanging on, accepting humiliation and ridicule to be let into their gang.
- Thank you Severus for this information, it will come very handy. You remember that prophecy of the Trelawney woman which you reported to me? I have concluded Potter's son fulfills the wording. I need a way to get close to them.
- Master!? Do you remember the reward I requested, in reward for the prophecy?
- Oh, Potter's wife? If she is sensible, if she knows what is good for her, she has nothing to fear.
Severus, knowing Lily won't be 'sensible' the way his master meant it, made an appointment with Albus. And after the part we saw added the remaining details, such as Tom's intent to recruit one of the Marauders. Now Severus would think Sirius would be the one Tom would prefer, because of his closeness to James. And Albus would suspect Sirius first because in the werewolf incident he already showed willingness to endanger a close friend in order to get at an enemy. But Tom would prefer Peter, because someone who was humiliated by his friends would be just the type he knew how to turn against them.
Option 3: Tom told Severus about his plans because now that his plans regarding the prophecy were coming along he was going to assign Severus the task of getting the DADA position so he could act as Tom's agent at the school.
A variant of this scenario has Tom assigning Severus with setting a 'top secret' meeting with Albus in which Severus was supposed to spin a tale of deepest remorse so he would be able to infiltrate Hogwarts - IOW that Tom expected the hilltop meeting, and Severus' only deviation from Tom's orders was that he actually meant the promises he made to Dumbledore.
Option 4: Since previously Severus had asked for Lily in reward for delivering the prophecy, Tom wanted to test how Severus would respond to the targeting of Lily's son as a loyalty test before assigning Severus the mission of becoming his Hogwarts agent. (Yes, Tom seriously underestimated Severus' ability at Occlumency.)
At the very least the first two scenarios contradict the timeline claimed by Sirius, where he accused Peter of spying for Voldemort for over a year. The last two are compatible with Peter already spying on the Potters at the time the conversation is held. But Sirius may have been mistaken about the beginning of Peter's spying. He may have attributed some stretch of misfortune to the Order to Peter unjustly. Or perhaps Peter was already serving Tom as a spy on the Order in general earlier, and was tasked with spying specifically on the Potters after Tom's conversation with Severus.
In POA Cornelius Fudge and Minerva say several things:
- A spy tipped Albus off that Voldemort was specifically after the Potters
- A spy close to the Potters was informing Voldemort of their movements
- A spy was passing on a lot of information to Voldemort
Presumably the information was specific to the Order, and distinct from information about the Ministry, gathered by Rookwood and his network, though it wasn't limited to information on the Potters. When did Albus or the Potters become aware that indeed someone was reporting on them? We know the Potters and Sirius suspected the spy was Remus. In Lily's letter to Sirius she mentions that Peter had been for a visit, but makes no mention of Remus. In the Order photograph Moody mentions Remus among the people who were immediately visible (those at the front of the group), whereas Sirius, James, Peter and Lily were sitting together in the back - Moody had to ask several images to move aside in order to reveal them. Taken together, by the time the photo was taken Remus was already suspected by the Potters and Sirius and was excluded from their company. The photo was taken 2 weeks before the McKinnons died, and this death was the one Lily thought Peter was upset about when he visited them around the time of Harry's birthday. Thus the photo was taken in early July, by which time Remus was no longer included among the Potters' friends. And we know that at least Sirius didn't change his mind about Remus until the night of the Godric's Hollow attack. Which means that if there had been any attacks on the Potters, they had ceased once they excluded Remus. This may explain the Potters' complacence: it seemed to them that they had found the spy and taken action to avoid him. Why is Dumbledore being such a worry-wort when they hadn't been attacked in months? Though why was he letting Remus still participate in order activities?
So why did they suspect Remus? Maybe his being a werewolf had a part, maybe the way he was reserved and not fully involved in their various 'pranks', and the fact that he was considered more intelligent and competent than Peter. But perhaps he was suspected because Peter framed him. After all, frame-ups are Voldemort's modus operandi, and Peter's framing of Sirius was planned in advance, why not have a double frame-up? First cast one person as the spy, thus distracting attention from oneself, continue unsuspected until the last moment, then frame the last person who knows the truth.
If that is the case - were whatever attacks that happened initially done in earnest, or were they just part of the frame-up? The answer rests on two questions: Could Peter have led Voldemort to the Potters while they were in hiding but not yet under Fidelius? And was there a reason for Voldemort to delay his attack for months, maybe a year since Peter was recruited as his spy?
In the books we see that security measures other than Fidelius fall into several categories:
- There are means to prevent teleporting into a specific place - anti-Apparition charms, blocking a floo connection
- Security that lets through any person who says the correct pass-phrase or does the correct series of actions - tapping the right spots in the right sequence with one's wand, applying blood (anyone's) to the right place, winning a game of chess, drinking a protective potion.
- Spells that disguise a location such that only someone who knows what to look for where can see it
- Security that is tied to a person's identity (eg mokeskin pouches, the security system for prophecy records).
Peter couldn't have worked around the first type, and indeed we see Voldemort entering the Potter home via the front door rather than Apparating directly in. But he certainly could have shown Voldemort what to do for measures of the second kind and lead him into a place protected by measures of the third kind as we see Harry doing with Ron (upon his return to the forest) and possibly Arthur with Scrimgeour, as well as the various wedding guests. For the fourth type of security measures Peter would have had to be present. If there was no limit on the number of people entering as long as one of them matched what the wards were looking for, Tom's way was clear. If the wards only allowed one person in, he would have had to possess Peter in order to gain entrance.
(Hmm, Tom's protections for his various Horcruxes did not depend on identity. Did he foresee the possibility of visiting them while in a different body?)
If as I think Tom could have entered the hidden Potter home before Peter became the Secret Keeper, why did he not attack Harry much earlier? Recall that Albus speculates in HBP that Tom was planning to make his 6th and last Horcrux with Harry's death. Also, remember that Albus was convinced Tom would be back, yet never went looking for a Horcrux. Because he knew it was Harry. It makes no sense for a Dark Lord fearing vanquishment to delay making his (only, as far as Albus knew) Horcrux until after dealing with his predicted vanquisher. But if a half-prepared Horcrux object had been found on site, and knowing that Tom only made a promise regarding Lily, I can imagine Albus thinking the plan had been to make the Horcrux with James' death, but Tom must have made some mistake. Then he went on to kill Lily and attempt to kill Harry too, leaving his soul fragile - and one fragment ended up in Harry's head. Which object could Tom have used in this attempt at making his final Horcrux? To be consistent with his existing collection, he would want an item that used to belong to Godric Gryffindor. I'm guessing he was relying on his new agent at Hogwarts to find such an item. And he delayed the attack until an object he thought suitable was available. Possibly Severus brought him a fake copy of Gryffindor's sword (not necessarily the same one Severus sent to Bella's vault in DH). Lack of previous access to a suitable object would explain why Tom never made the 6th Horcrux all those decades.
Who was Peter's contact person among the DEs? Who among them knew about his recruitment? When did he become Marked? The natural person for this role would be Rookwood, especially if Peter was employed by the Ministry. Consider also that all the way until June 1994 Severus never learned that Peter had been the spy. This implies that neither of the free DEs Severus saw over the years filled him in. Perhaps they didn't know either? Also, Rookwood remained free until Igor Karkaroff turned him in, presumably because Severus didn't know him as a DE. Of course the contact person or handler may have been someone else, in which case it would likely have been among the DEs we never even heard of. Perhaps in addition to a spy network within the Ministry there was one operating in Diagon/Knockturn Ally? As for when Peter got his Mark, I doubt Tom would have wanted Peter to risk discovery - it would have been too hard to replace him. I'm with Jodel - Peter received his Mark as a 'reward' after he told Tom the Potters' secret - at which point he became dispensable and could start earning his keep as a run-of-the-mill DE. After all, Voldemort's normal way of rewarding servants for good performance is to give them more opportunities to risk their lives for his causes (see Barty, Bellatrix). Or perhaps the Mark served as insurance to Tom that if Peter had given him false information he wouldn't be able to escape. (I wonder what the Dark Mark looked like when Peter took his rat form.)
In the circle of DEs in GOF Peter's position is between the gap of 6 (3 dead DEs, Igor, Severus and Barty Jr) and Lucius. Yet we can be certain neither Severus nor Igor knew he was a DE and it is unlikely Lucius did. I'm thinking Peter was given the place of a DE who was killed in the late part of the war. Maybe Evan Rosier, who was known both to Severus and to Igor and was related to Lucius' wife. (And Barty may have been given Wilkes' place, or the place of some other dead DE whose name we never learned.)
If indeed in the late months of the war Tom was filling vacant spots in his circle, maybe the Ministry and the Order were getting better at killing true DEs. This would be one outcome of the recruitment of Severus as Albus' spy.
What information could Severus have provided?
- The initial warning that Voldemort was targeting the Potters
- Some indication that Voldemort had a spy in the Order, maybe specifically from within the Potters' circle?
- Information about his own orders from Voldemort
- Whatever Voldemort was boasting about to his followers
- The working of the Dark Mark
- Names of some DEs (besides Aberforth's reports about who was socializing with the original ones)
- Possibly evidence tying DEs with specific crimes
The last three enabled the capture and killing of DEs. From Karkaroff we have hints about the timeline: He was aware of Travers' involvement in the death of the McKinnons in late July (shortly before Lily's letter and 2 weeks after the Order photo was taken) but not in Dolohov's involvement in the deaths of the Prewett brothers (who are present in the photo). Nor is he aware of Evan Rosier's death and the capture of Dolohov, Mulciber (Sr or Jr?) and Travers. We also know that Igor was captured after Moody had followed him for 6 months. So it looks like Igor Karkaroff was captured in late July or early August, following an initial tip-off in January or February (maybe followed by further information at later times), consistent with the tip-off having originally come from Severus and passed on to Moody from Albus.
Canon names 29 of the DEs. If we exclude Regulus Black, who was long dead when Severus turned, and Severus himself, we have canon evidence that of the remaining 27 the following had some kind of run-ins with the Aurors from around the time of Severus' defection: Wilkes and Evan Rosier were killed (there is some chance Wilkes died a bit earlier, though), Karkaroff, Dolohov, Mulciber and Travers were arrested during the last 4 months of the war (anyone arrested after the war ended for crimes committed during the war could clear themselves with Imperius), the 3 Lestranges (or at least 2 of them) were arrested (for the first time) at some point, Lucius Malfoy, Macnair, Avery, Crabbe, Goyle and Nott were arrested after the war ended. There may have been others: we do not know the names of 3 of the 10 DEs who escaped Azkaban in OOTP, there were at least 3 DEs who died after Voldemort's fall (whether in Azkaban or while resisting arrest) leaving additional gaps in the circle, and there may have been other DEs besides Wilkes and Rosier who died before Voldemort's fall and had their places taken by new recruits. I'd say somewhere between a quarter and a third of all DEs of the first war were either killed or arrested from around the time of Severus' defection on. It is likely that he reported to Albus, who in turn passed the information to the Aurors he trusted, namely Alastor Moody and Frank Longbottom (I doubt Alice was out chasing DEs now that she was caring for an infant). As a result, half the cells in Azkaban were full because of Moody, as Charlie Weasley explained, and Frank Longbottom became a 'popular Auror'. (Were the other half of the cells full of people who were falsely accused of being Dark Wizards because of Crouch's policies?)
Note that merely having the information that someone was probably a DE did not help much with arresting them - Dumbledore knew Dolohov was a DE since Tom's return well before the war started, yet he was only arrested towards the end of the war. So I'm guessing Severus must have passed on more information that enabled the captures - places where they could be found, crimes they could be accused of. And while Tom was still alive, anyone who knew of the Dark Mark could verify that the captive indeed was a DE. OTOH once the war was over the Ministry probably rounded up whomever they still had any tips on, at least for interrogation. And if the DEs had any brains, they came quietly and claimed Imperius. Works better than risking death or becoming a fugitive.
How did Severus acquire his information? If indeed the DEs were supposed to hide their identities from each other he would have had to guess identities by voice, mannerism and very limited visual information. Someone like Rowle may have stood out for his build, Bellatrix for her voice (and tendency to engage in baby-talk). For others he had to rely on more subtle details. The result, as Terri pointed out, must have been that he was better at identifying those he already knew from up close - mostly Slytherins from years near his own, with the addition of Lucius Malfoy and his buddies. And if I am right about Severus being the DE-healer, much information was acquired from what his patients revealed while not-quite in control. He was betraying his closest friends and people who trusted his help.
What did Albus learn from the rest of Severus' information? Severus delivered the initial warning in late fall or early winter. The Potters became convinced that Remus was Voldemort's spy some time before mid-July. This may have been based on some run-in with DEs or information Albus received from Severus. But while the Potters and Sirius were convinced they had removed the true spy from their circle Albus was convinced there still was someone spying on them, which was why he offered to become their Secret Keeper. This conviction must have been based on something Severus had said, because there were no (more) attacks on the Potters. Either Voldemort was boasting specifically to Severus that his plan to attack the Prophecy boy was on track or he boasted to the DEs in general that he would soon land a decisive attack that would dash the Old Fool's hopes (or something along those lines). On top of that Severus was instructed to apply for the DADA job at Hogwarts. Which meant Voldemort would want him to do something for him at the school during the 1981-2 academic year. Perhaps he believed that once the threat of the prophecy was dealt with he'd be unbeatable, and would seek a take-over.
I find it hard to understand why in this atmosphere Albus had the Order pose for a group photo sometime in the first half of July 1981. He knew of a spy, and he was expecting Tom to make a move sometime soon. Was he setting the entire Order as some kind of bait? Did he hope to capture the spy somehow by inviting Voldemort to take Order members out? Of the 22 people Moody pointed out to Harry in the picture 6 died before the Godric's Hollow attack. (Caradoc Dearborn disappeared sometime in January 1982 and the Longbottoms were also attacked some time after Voldemort's downfall.)
Probably the day the photo was taken Albus noticed James' invisibility cloak and (later?) asked to borrow it. And never returned it while James lived. Despite the fact that by this time James and Lily were in hiding and never left home without the cloak. Moreover, they may have thought to use the cloak as an emergency measure in the event of an attack (to sneak out past the attackers?) The photo-op may have been the last time James and Lily left the house.
How did Albus justify his actions to himself? Terri proposed that Albus, knowing Tom had the Resurrection Stone and believing that he was seeking immortality by acquiring the other Hallows, feared that Tom would take the cloak if he were to find it when he came to attack the Potters. Better keep it safe (and if that made Albus one step closer to owning the Hallows then it's all good). Besides, the Potters were being reckless leaving home under the cloak. If they couldn't act responsibly they needed some limits imposed on them for their own good. Besides, one doesn't necessarily need an invisibility cloak to be invisible, there were other ways ... And thus the idea to offer them the Fidelius Charm with Albus as Secret Keeper was born.
Meanwhile Tom was working on his plans. Things were looking up: Rookwood's network had infiltrated many Ministry departments and offices, he had young Barty, who could be used to bring his father down, Wormtail was positioned to lead him to the Potters whenever he was ready and now Severus Snapewould be at Hogwarts starting from September. What was he going to do with Severus? Well, first he needs an ancient and valuable artifact (preferably something that had once been owned by Godric Gryffindor) for his sixth Horcrux. That would allow the completion of his seven-part-soul with the killing of the Potter infant. With that threat gone nothing will stand in his way. Time to get the Old Fool out of Hogwarts. Wouldn't it be delicious to do so with the basilisk, waiting patiently all these years? The Fool would know it was him, the only remaining heir of Salazar Slytherin, but would not know how he controlled the snake. All that needed to happen was that Lucius Malfoy planted the diary on some naive, lonely student. The Fool would watch and investigate - and Snape would be there to confuse the evidence. In the end the Fool would take the blame for failing yet again to stop the basilisk, the Slytherins on the Board of Directors would make sure of that! Or... better yet, have Snape frame the Dumb One as the culprit. After all, he was there the first time around too. Yes, send the Fool to Azkaban and he wouldn't interfere anymore. And then - expose Crouch as a hypocrite who was sending Aurors after Death Eaters while raising one at home. Soon enough the Ministry would be in his hands as well. Oh, sweet days are near ...
(Jodel raised the possibility that Tom only Horcruxified the diary shortly before giving it to Lucius, maybe when he killed Dorcas Meadows of the Order. If I understand her correctly the dairy may have been the first in many, each containing memories of Tom's magical experiments from the respective time, and he chose to Horcruxify the one from 1943 when it occurred to him it could be used to open the Chamber. If this is the case then it seems he deliberately left the choice of at least one Horcrux 'open' for decades. I'm not sure if I completely agree.)
Back to Albus and the protection of the Potters: If he got them to use the Fidelius Charm the cloak would surely be superfluous - as long as the charm held. (And he could keep it and play with it and be Almost Master of Death and...) The Fidelius was as good as the Secret Keeper. Who could possibly be better than him? Especially since the Potters were not listening to his warnings about the spy still close to them. Well, they could avoid the spy problem if one of the Potters were to become Secret Keeper, but they have shown recklessness in the past - what if the Secret Keeper left the house and got caught? Maybe better not to raise this possibility at all - surely they'd see how he was the safest option? (Besides, if they became Secret Keepers he wouldn't have control on who can come to their home - he couldn't bear the thought. And.... well.... if he is the Secret Keeper, then whenever he decides the time has come for Tom to mark his future vanquisher, all Albus has to do is send a hand-written note to Tom via Snape. Easy.)
So Albus described the spell to the Potters, neglecting to mention that they didn't have to appoint a third party as Secret Keeper. But unfortunately they did not agree he was the best person for the job. Why so?
First, they were not raised for years in total worship of Albus Dumbledore. He hadn't been rescuing them from dementors and murderous DADA teachers on a yearly basis, nor did they listen to an annual speech about how he knew everything about some lethally dangerous development all along. In fact, James and Sirius had good reason to believe Albus knew little if anything about many of their exploits.
Second, they were starting to suspect there was something not-quite-honest about Albus' tactics as leader of the Order: It had been months since they had determined to their satisfaction that Remus(!?!) had been spying on them to Voldemort - yet Dumbledore let him continue to participate in all Order activities. Then Bathilda Bagshot started talking about how Dumbledore had once been Grindelwald's best friend. Ay first they just thought she was being batty, but then she showed them those letters about how they were going to promote 'the greater good' - Yikes! How far can they trust Dumbledore now?
But perhaps there was another reason, one James, Lily and Sirius were not aware of. Peter must have realized that if anyone but himself is to become the Potters' Secret Keeper then his mission was doomed (and if he didn't, his master would have figured it out fast enough). Now getting the Potters to choose him over Dumbledore wasn't likely whatsoever, but he might be able to get them to choose him over Sirius. So he needed to nudge them into choosing Sirius. We know magic can help with this sort of thing.