Kentucky Derby 140
Hey, it's that time of year! Time for me to justify my continued account here on LJ by posting my Derby analysis (which is of course boringly mundane and appallingly uninformed in some regards. Hey, I'm a complete amateur, don't take my advice!)
This is an odd year. The horses feel very mediocre. Most of them have only won twice in at least six starts or more. There are only four Grade One winners in this race, and none from a G1 juvenile race. Everyone else is either G1 placed, G2 winner, G2 placed or lower. Pretty much nobody of prominence from the juvenile season of last year has held on to last into the final dance of the roses.
I've taken a lot of time to write this - I got started on it right after the post position draw on Wednesday and have been researching or writing steadily every chance I get, so this is a bit later (and contains stuff written from before the scratch) because, well, this is a LOT of writing to do and I have had to do a lot of cross-referencing and researching. :P
The morning line odds are from the revision after the scratch, by the way. Might as well tell it like it is officially.
#1: Vicar's in Trouble (20-1)
dkb/br.c. (Into Mischief - Vibrant, Vicar)
bred in Louisana by Spendthrift Farm LLC
owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
5 starts, 3 wins. G2 winner
An oddly named horse (well, okay, the name makes sense given the immediate pedigree, but still...) with a slightly questionable pedigree. I don't know much about Into Mischief as a stallion, but that bottom side looks questionable to me for a 20-horse cavalry charge at a mile and a quarter. A little deeper digging and I see that he has a dosage index of 5.00, which is well above the classic 4.0 threshold, but keep in mind that at the time, Curlin had a 4.00 DI (I think it's been adjusted in recent years as new chefs-de-race were added, but I'm not sure) and we all know that Curlin had no problems whatsoever with classic distances. The Dosage Index is by no means a hard rule, but it is a good bar to measure by. Plus, this horse here is nailed to the wall by being shoved in the one-hole. I don't know how many horses have one from the one-hole since 16-20-horse fields started being the norm, but I'm pretty sure that it ain't many. I'm gonna guess that most (if not all) of the horses who won wearing the #1 saddle towel had muuuuuch smaller fields to contend with. ANYWAY. I do like the Ramseys, and god knows I love Rosie Napravnik to death, but I don't think the stars are going to align for her on this one. It could, but I'd be pretty surprised.
#2: Harry's Holiday (50-1)
b.c. (Harlan's Holiday - Daisy Mason, Orientate)
bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones, et al
owned by Skychai Racing, et al
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
8 starts, 3 wins. G3 placed
A mystery animal here. Never even heard of him. I remember his sire... I sure liked the look of Harlan's Holiday way back when (2002 Derby, I think?) but... beyond that, not much. Looking further into the 5-cross, I'm confused. This horse has a 2.00 Dosage Index, but that looks like a very miler pedigree to me. I could be wrong, I'm not up on the recent history, but... Orientate was very much a sprinter, came from a sprinting sire, and while Stop The Music (way back in the fourth cross at the very bottom) was a good distance horse, that's too far back to influence much. I really don't know what to make of this. On the one hand, Orientate and Mt Livermore.... on the other hand, Storm Cat and Affirmed. I kinda think that, based on this pedigree, this distance might be a bit too much, but only because this looks like a miler or mile-and-an-eighth sort of pedigree. I just noticed something else very interesting... this colt is out of a half sister to Into Mischief (the sire of the horse to his immediate left in the gate). Both Harry's Holiday and Vicar's In Trouble have Harlan's Holiday and Leslie's Lady in the first or second cross of their pedigrees. That's actually really interesting, I have never seen that before in the Derby. In any case, I don't know his connections (don't know much about Mike Maker, other than he has three horses in this race, so he must be the next big thing, because usually it's Pletcher, Dutrow or Baffert who has multiple entries in the big races) so I really can't make an informed assessment of them. Either way, I kinda don't think this horse is gonna do anything.
#3: Uncle Sigh (30-1)
b.c. (Indian Charlie - Cradlesong, Pine Bluff)
bred in New York by Milfer Farm
owned by Wounded Warrior Stables, et al
Trainer: Gary Contessa
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr
5 starts, 1 win. G3 placed
I don't particularly like this horse's name, and I'm not impressed with the pedigree. Indian Charlie is not what I'd call a Derby sire. His best progeny are mostly sprinters and mid distance. And Pine Bluff is not a good enough offset, and AP Indy and Seattle Slew are too far back in the pedigree to really be effective. This horse's DI is 3.00, but mostly because he's got Danzig and AP Indy (and thus Seattle Slew and Northern Dancer) on the bottom of his pedigree. I don't really know anything about the connections, so I'm going to just pass this one over.
#4: Danza (8-1)
ch.c. (Street Boss - Champagne Royale, French Deputy)
bred in Kentucky by Liberation Farm, et al.
owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joe Bravo
4 starts, 2 wins. G1 winner
Who's the boss? Maybe this horse, though I don't think so. I'm fairly certain that he was named for Tony Danza, the star of the 80s sitcom "Who's The Boss?" but that's almost the only thing that he has going for him, for me. I'm not a fan of Pletcher, I'm largely indifferent to the pedigree (I have a soft spot for Ogygian, I'll be honest), and I don't really know anything about the rest of the connections. The Dosage Index is pretty standard 3.00, so I don't really think it's reliable to use that, because a horse with a spread like that could very easily steal this race if it falls apart. That said, not really interested in it. If he does win, though, god knows that the "Who's The Boss" puns will go into overdrive in every fucking media outlet out there, so for that reason, if no other, I kinda hope this horse finishes up the track. Also, I'm not a fan of horses that are this lightly raced going into the Derby... I can't help but think the horse is fragile, if they babied him along so much that he only started four times in the past year.
#5: California Chrome (5-2)
ch.c. (Lucky Pulpit - Love the Chase, Not For Love)
bred in California by Perry Martin and Steven Coburn
homebred (races for breeders)
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
10 starts, 6 wins. G1 winner
I'm not sure why I like this horse, I'm pretty sure he's overrated, but I still like him. I am a fan of flashy chesnuts, after all. He has the most starts and the most wins in the field, I think, which is a plus, and he's coming in on a bit of a streak. And he's a homebred, which I've always kinda liked, (especially if it's a homebred for someone other than a mega-stable like Darley or Juddmonte). His pedigree is a legit mystery to me, I know nothing about the sire or dam, and only Pulpit rings any bells for me in the first two crosses. Beyond that, the pedigree is a mystery. Still, I'm pulling for this guy because why not? (Also, I found out recently that Art Sherman used to be an exercise rider for Swaps, the 1955 sensation. That, if nothing else, is pretty awesome. A guy who's been around for so long, around genuinely legendary horseflesh, still out there training horses and dreaming of roses.) I will be very happy if this horse wins, though I sincerely have no idea if he can or not. Morning line favorites don't usually pan out (though it did last year, so what do I know?) but he's proven he's a talented colt and at the very least, he's bringing a little energy to this. No matter what, I wish him the best of luck through this race and the rest of the season. I hope he'll still be around at the end of the year, not squirreled away on a farm to prepare for breeding.
#6: Samraat (15-1)
dkb/br.c. (Noble Causeway - Little Indian Girl, Indian Charlie)
bred in New York by My Meadowview
homebred (raced by breeder)
Trainer: Richard Violette Jr
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
6 races, 5 wins. G3 winner, G1 placed
Heard this named bandied about recently, nothing more than that. I remember Noble Causeway a little bit, but not much. Another Indian Charlie descendant, though this is through the dam. Based on the dosage, this horse is perfectly suited for the distance. I should also add that there is no inbreeding through the fifth cross, which is nice and is somewhat rare these days. An intriguing pedigree, and a potentially talented colt. Certainly a live wire, and the six hole isn't a bad spot to be in, though it's not the best either. All in all, an intriguing prospect, though I really don't particularly like his pedigree for the Belmont.
#7: We Miss Artie (50-1)
dkb/br.c. (Artie Schiller - Athena's Gift, Fusaichi Pegasus)
bred in Ontario, Canada, by Richard Lister
owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
8 starts, 3 wins. G3 winner, G2 placed
Well, well, well, I was starting to wonder when we'd see some of the Artie Schillers! Also, this is our only foreign-born horse in the race (how weird, to call a Canadian horse "foreign" but technically it's another country). His pedigree is loaded to the teeth with superstars, the dosage profile is very number-heavy. There's a lot there, so he's got a lot to live up to. However... wasn't Artie Schiller primarily a grass miler? For all that he was loaded with distance quality in his pedigree, I seem to recall him excelling at a mile on the lawn. I'm intrigued by that morning line, since I never expected a Ramsey-owned, Pletcher-trained, Castellano-ridden horse would get such high odds for the morning line, but perhaps the horse doesn't belong at all. That pedigree is suspiciously grass, and I know nothing about the horse's performances, but I'm going to assume that the morning line reflects that the horse has done nothing to prove he belongs. Either he's there because Pletcher legitimately thinks he has a shot, or the Ramseys are so desperate for the roses that they'll take any runner that can earn a spot in the gates (though they do have another one here too). Either way, the pedigree is nice, but I don't think the Derby is going to be his stage. We'll see. I should add that I will be rooting for him by default, because 7 is one of my lucky numbers, but... not really going to call this a likelihood. It feels a little too desperate to me.
#8: General a Rod (15-1)
dkb/br.c. (Roman Ruler - Dynamite Eyes, Dynaformer)
bred in Kentucky by Hare Forest Farm
owned by Skychai Racing, Starlight Racing, et al
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Joel Rosario
5 starts, 2 wins. G1 placed
This horse's name confuses me. Why is the "a" not capitalized? Stupid me, I thought the horse was named after "A Rod" (Baseball player Alex Rodriguez) until I saw that the A isn't an initial. Is that a mistake on the part of the Jockey Club? Okay, okay, I need to not focus on the name now.... er... So what exactly has this horse accomplished? On paper, nothing much. A listed stakes win, a second in the Fountain of Youth and a third in the Florida Derby. The pedigree is decent (not sure how good Roman Ruler is as a stallion, but I'm pretty sure he's not bad, and with Dynaformer very close in the pedigree, this colt is probably decently durable and probably won't be afraid of an off track (thouhg it looks like he's never raced on one, so who knows?). I heard he had a very lackluster workout recently, but frankly, that could be a trick by the trainer to deflect attention from the horse. I personally don't put a lot of stock in workouts, because they're done by horses under an experienced exercise rider's hand, and if the trainer ordered a slower work, we won't know that. If he had put forth a really, really fast work right before the race, that might be significant (potential morning glory sorta thing) but... personally, I think a slow workout by the horse, unless it is a surprise to the trainer, is indicative of nothing. Personally, I think this horse is a bit over-hyped, as he's accomplished pretty much nothing, but we'll see. I've been made a fool of before by dismissing a horse who hadn't won anything other than a maiden race.
#9: Vinceremos (30-1)
dkb/br.c. (Pioneerof the Nile - Kettle's Sister, More Than Ready)
bred in Kentucky by Machmer Hall
owned by Winstar Farm, et al
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joseph Rocco, Jr
5 starts, 2 wins. G3 winner, G2 placed
I don't know anything about this horse, never heard of him. He kinda looks like he's come out of nowhere. I'm not very impressed with the pedigree. On the one hand, I can see the influence of a couple of Classic winners (Empire Maker and Unbridled), and on the other, I see either names I've never seen before, or one I do recognize but associate with two-year-old speedsters. I've never considered More Than Ready to be much of a Classic stallion, even when offset with a known distance pedigree underside. And I was never really impressed with Pioneerof the Nile. I'm going to just give this horse a pass, because I don't really like any of the connections, and the pedigree does nothing for me. Also, that Dosage Index is kind of impressive... you don't see 7.00 DIs very often because most people try to aim for around 3.00 or 4.00, I think. At least, that's usually what you see. 7.00 is absurdly high... Everything is focused in the speed category. I don't think this horse really should be here... I really think 10 furlongs is a bit too far for a grandson of More Than Ready.
#10: Wildcat Red (15-1)
b.c. (D'Wildcat - Racene, Miner's Mark)
bred in Florida by Moreau Bloodstock, et al
owned by Honors Stable
Trainer: Jose Garoffalo
Jockey: Luis Saez
7 starts, 4 wins. G2 winner, G1 placed
Another mystery to me. I don't know anything about the connections, and that pedigree just confuses me. I'm pretty sure that D'Wildcat was a sprinter, and this horse's Dosage Index implies that too -- 5.67 is pretty high. If you go back far enough, you see some durability and distance, but that's going really far back, and I'm pretty sure that the sire and dam are the most influential part of the pedigree. Not really impressed with this horse, so I'm going to just pass him over.
#11: Hoppertunity SCRATCHED
b.c. (Any Given Saturday - Refugee, Unaccounted For)
bred in Kentucky by Betz/D.J. Stable/Kidder/J. Betz/Robenalt (I have no idea how to shorten that so I'm just gonna copy-paste that)
owned by Mike Pegram, et al
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
5 starts, 2 wins. G2 winner, G1 placed
Aww, Pegram and his beer puns! To be fair, it might not be that at all, but still, the moment I saw who owned the horse, I stopped questioning where the name came from. Pegram has a penchant for odd little names for some of his horses, and he's had a few with beer-related names (Silverbulletday, for instance). The pedigree is a bit of a question to me. I know Any Given Saturday was a good horse, but I don't know much about the bottom half fo the pedigree, and I don't know how good a stallion Any Given Saturday is. Still, I like the looks of this horse and will root for him. However, he did not race as a two year old. Can we say "Apollo Jinx" anyone? I'd love to see him break it, and looking at his morning line, I think the odds-makers think he has a shot, but... I kinda doubt it. That jinx is pretty much the granddaddy of all Derby jinxes. UPDATE: Hoppertunity has been scratched. I'll leave this here cuz I spent a fair amount of time researching and writing, but he's no longer in the game. Therefore, the Apollo Jinx lives on, by default.
#12: Dance With Fate (20-1)
dkb/br.c. (Two Step Salsa - Flirting With Fate, Saint Ballado)
bred in Florida by Best A Luck Farm
owned by Ciaglia Racing, et al
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
8 starts, 3 wins. G1 winner
Wow, who is this? I've heard the name a little, but not much. That pedigree is a complete wildcard to me -- you have to go back to the third cross to find names I recognize (well, I sorta vaguely recognize Saint Ballado, but mostly because of his champion son Saint Liam and champion daughter Ashado.) I Then you start seeing some big names -- Halo, Seattle Slew, Seeking the Gold (a good son of Mr Prospector, and one that I've felt has been underrated because of some of Mr P's more flashy sons) and Belong to Me (a good broodmare sire, as I recall). I had to look up Petionville (Two Step Salsa's sire) to see who else he sired, and honestly, I should have recognized the name, because I remember a fair few of his best runners, except for Two Step Salsa himself (weirdly enough, given that he's one of Petionville's top earners on the track, a millionaire at that.) That being said, Petionville's top runners were mostly fillies (in particular, I remember Island Fashion) and except for Island Fashion, they still weren't all that great, were typically flashes in the pan. Dance With Fate seems to be another of this kind of thing, and I kind of question that he can carry the momentum long enough to win this huge race before he fizzles out. I'm not going to hang my hopes on it, especially since I don't think the Blue Grass is a very good prep, for all that it's a G1.
#13: Chitu (20-1)
ch.c. (Henny Hughes - Sea Gift, A.P. Indy)
bred in Kentucky by Tom Evans, et al
owned by Tanma Corporation
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
4 starts, 3 wins. G3 winner
Who on earth is this? I've never heard of him before. Clearly I haven't been paying attention. Then again, with only 4 starts on his record, he hasn't been around much, so that could explain why I haven't heard of him -- he jumped into the ring at the last minute. Also... correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Henny Hughes a sprinter? Isn't that kind of the hallmark of Hennessy's stud legacy -- promising two year olds and sprinters? If that's the case, however, how did this horse fly under the radar for so long? Such a mystery. The Dosage Index (2.56) is, to my mind, a bit deceptive because of how close in the pedgiree A.P. Indy is. Indy has a lot of chefs-de-race in his own pedigree, so that's going to throw some weight in. That being said, he has won at 9 furlongs, and at a pretty decent speed for the race, so perhaps the pedigree is nothing more than a road bump. On the other hand... I don't think the Sunland Derby is much of a prep race yet. We'll see, I guess, but I really don't think I want him to win, just because it's really annoying when horses take as few races as possible on the road to the Derby. It's pretty hard to handicap a race where half your field has faced the starter less than five times, and many of them have not faced each other. Considering the prestige of this race, you'd think its participants would have crossed paths with each other at some point in their race careers, but not as likely when you're ducking and then diving into one race to get the Win And You're In points. (I'm not exactly saying that's what Chitu did, since he did face at least one other Derby contender in the Bob Lewis... but still, I don't like it lightly-raced horses set light-race precedents.) I kinda think this horse is a bit too inexperienced to win this race, but who knows.
#14: Medal Count (20-1)
b.c. (Dynaformer - Brisquette, Unbridled's Song)
bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet
owned by Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
7 starts, 3 wins. G3 winner, G1 placed
On the one hand, that is a very intriguing pedigree. Zero inbreeding, for one thing. Also, there's a pair of breed titans in the first two crosses. Dynaformer is formidable as all hell and was generally known for throwing sturdy runners, while Unbridled's Song was known to throw fragile speedster babies who often had glass ankles. (Yes I'm still bitter about Eight Belles, but Unbridled's Song had a lot more progeny who retired with leg, ankle or foot injuries too. The Dynaformers were, generally, far more sound.) On the other hand... I question the surface. I think he's more suited to turf or synthetic (and it looks like he hasn't done well when he raced on dirt.) The distance shouldn't be a problem, but I kinda think the surface will. However, I seem to recall that Dynaformers tend to be good mudders, so if the track ends up sloppy, this horse might well take to it like a fish. I guess we'll see what happens. Certainly a possibility, though I still have my doubts.
#15: Tapiture (12-1)
ch.c. (Tapit - Free Spin, Olympio)
bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds
homebred (raced by breeder)
Trainer: Steve Assmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana
7 starts, 2 wins. G2 winner
Urgh. Not a fan of the Tapits, and definitely not a fan of Assmussen. I will give the horse props for both of his career wins being in graded stakes, that's somewhat impressive -- usually horses break their maidens in a maiden race before diving into graded company, but this one didn't. He broke his maiden in a G2 and followed it up with a G3, before fizzling. Still... I really see nothing to like here. As I said, I'm not a fan of the Tapits, and the bottom half of the pedigree is a mystery to me. Passing this one over, cuz there's nothing to like here.
#16: Intense Holiday (8-1)
b.c. (Harlan's Holiday - Intensify, Unbridled's Song)
bred in Kentucky by Machmer Hall, et al
owned by Starlight Racing
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
8 starts, 2 wins. G2 winner
This year, it's Holidays instead of Kittens! Two sons of Harlan's Holiday (plus a grandson) are in the Derby, and both of them have Holiday in the name. In this one's case... the name is pretty unimaginative. Pedigree-wise, I'm going to assume that the distance won't be much of a problem (I don't think Harlan's Holidays ever really have much trouble with 10 furlongs, and I really don't see any limitations in the bottom half (the Unbridled's Songs, I think, tended to prefer 9 furlongs, but could usually go further without much trouble.) Also, another pedigree with no inbreeding in five crosses -- it's really nice to see that. We're slowly moving away from trying to make super-horses by inbreeding to Mr P and Northern Dancer and Secretariat and Seattle Slew. Anyway, distance probably won't be a problem, but I'm still not sold. Maybe it's because of Pletcher, though I doubt it (This probably is Pletcher's best hope in the race, after all). All in all, a middle-of-the-road horse, very much on a par with pretty much everyone else.
#17: Commanding Curve (50-1)
b.r. (Master Command - Mother, Lion Hearted)
bred in Kentucky by T.V. VanMeter
owned by West Point Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
6 starts, 2 wins. G2 placed
Well this is a little discouraging. I tend to favor the 17 horse in this race (since this is one race that actually legitimately has a #17 horse; most races don't use the auxiliary gate, so 16 horses is the max) because, well, 17 is my favorite number. But this horse does nothing at all for me. The pedigree is bland, I'm not a fan of West Point, and he really hasn't done anything. You don't see the term "ridgling" used very often in this level of race, so I wonder if he's a ridgling like A.P. Indy (only one descended testicle) or if he's basically a natural gelding (incapable of breeding). Then again, I'm not up on the terminology or the biology of breeding, so perhaps even if both testicles are undescended, the horse could still breed. After all, geldings have had the testicles entirely removed; ridglings still have them, they're just not descended. Anyway, I'm going to assume the latter, since A.P. Indy is generally referred to as a fertile horse (even now, as a pensioned stallion), so I'm going to assume that for a horse to be called a "ridgling" on a program, he must have both testicles undescended. Either way, I'm not impressed and I'm probably more likely to root for the horse who comes out of the 17 gate rather than the horse wearing the 17 cloth. We'll see, I guess.
#18: Candy Boy (15-1)
b.c. (Candy Ride[ARG] - She's an Eleven, In Excess[IRE])
bred in Kentucky by Lee and Susan Searing
homebred (raced by breeder, under the name CRK Stable)
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Gary Stevens
7 starts, 2 wins. G2 winner, G1 placed
Not to sure what to make of this one. The bottom half of the pedigree is a mystery to me (I'm fairly familiar with Candy Ride, mostly thanks to his sons Sidney's Candy and Twirling Candy.) I know the Candy Rides are often successful in California... not sure how good they fair back east, especially on the traditional dirt surface like Churchill. Still, I don't think distance will be a problem, and he can handle dirt, since he handled Santa Anita fine. The post may be a problem, since that's a long distance away from the rail for a horse that doesn't look like he likes being very far back (most of his races appear to have him clumped just off the pace). However, with only two wins on the books, it's hard to say what he really likes. He's got a Derby pro in the irons, and it's possible that the race could fall apart around him and set up for him to win.
#19: Ride On Curlin (15-1)
b.c. (Curlin - Magical Ride, Storm Cat)
bred in Kentucky by G. Watts Humphrey Jr. & Louise Ireland Humphrey Revocable Trust
owned by Daniel Dougherty
Trainer: William Gowan
Jockey: Calvin Borel
9 starts, 2 wins. G1 placed
Oh my. I don't like the name at all (how utterly boring and linear, plus it's such a shout-out to the sire, and feels a bit like coattail riding), but... that's about the only thing I really don't like about him. I've grown soft towards Curlin (I used to dislike him, but that was largely because of his connections) and... quite frankly, that is a nice distance pedigree. We know that Curlin himself could handle classic distances (it's not his fault he couldn't mow down Rags To Riches in the Belmont, and he more than made up for it later with other 10 furlong wins) and that he has already produced a classic winner himself (his son won the Belmont last year, after all), and the bottom half of this pedigree is loaded with balance - Storm Cat and Seeking the Gold are in the immediate cross for Magical Ride. Also, this horse has got a lion on his back. You never want to count out Calvin Borel. Bet against him at your own risk, especially in this race. At the very least, this colt seems to be a model of in-the-money consistency (he's been in the money in eight of his nine races) and would be a good exotic bet. However, the main reason I think most people will back him, really, is going to be his jockey. And I wouldn't mind seeing Calvin land Derby Win #4
#20: Wicked Strong (6-1)
b.c. (Hard Spun - Moyne Abbey, Charismatic)
bred in Kentucky by William Lynn
owned by Centennial Farms
Trainer: James Jerkens
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
6 starts, 2 wins. G1 winner
On the one hand, I tend to dismiss the Wood Memorial (probably because I usually don't like the winner). On the other hand... I still kinda like this horse. It's an awful post, way out in Siberia, but it's not impossible to win this race from that far out (Big Brown did it pretty easily six years ago). And that pedigree is a sentimental delight to me. I've always loved Charismatic, and Hard Spun won my respect when he put forth a respectable pace in the 2007 Derby, and managed to hold off all but the freight train Street Sense. That was a race loaded with classy horses, and there should have been no way for a pace-setter to do so well, and yet he did. Had Street Sense encountered any traffic problems while hurtling through the pack, Hard Spun probably would have won that race. Even in defeat himself, Hard Spun beat a lot of good horses, and he beat them pretty soundly. On a technical aspect of the pedigree, again, there are giants at play here, since Hard Spun is a son of the kingmaker Danzig, and is among the last of the Danzigs. This puts Northern Dancer in the third cross for Wicked Strong, which is becoming much rarer these days, since sons and daughters of the great Dancer are vanishing, and their progeny are diluting. As far as distance goes, I'd say that on paper, Wicked Strong will be just fine. There's nothing in the pedigree to suggest any trouble with ten furlongs. However, the pedigree isn't the only thing in play here, and I'm a little hesitant to really back this horse, since it looks to me like the Wood Memorial was a huge performance for him, and the last couple of times I recall a horse putting forth a huge effort to win the Wood, they failed to have any impact on the Derby. You have to go all the way back to Fusaichi Pegasus to find the last horse to win the Wood and then win the Derby. Most of the time, if the Wood winner even makes it into the gate of the Derby, he clumps home out of the money. To be fair, the same can be said of most finale preps for the Derby, but... I dunno, I guess I still have a bit of a bias against that race. Either way, Wicked Strong does have a shot at the roses, I guess, though that post is going to be a hell of an obstacle.
AE: Pablo Del Monte (50-1)
ch.c. (Giant's Causeway - One Hot Wish, Bring the Heat)
bred in Kentucky by Wesley Ward
owned by Michael Tabor, et al.
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Jeffery Sanchez
6 starts, 2 wins. G1 placed.
Probably not gonna make it into the gates, which is too bad for the Tabors, since they're among those big gun stables that try to make every Derby in the hopes of finally winning the damned race through sheer perseverance. UPDATE: With the scratch of Hoppertunity, I presume that this horse is now a go, as he is now listed as being in the final gate. I really don't have any input on it, really. It's a really uninspiring Tabor entry, one who has done nothing more than pick up the leftovers in the graded stakes. It would be the ultimate irony for him to win, I suppose, considering he really shouldn't be in the gates, he was #21 on the list at entry time, and up until last year, AEs weren't allowed in the Derby, so scratches after the draw left horses like this out of the gate. For him to get into the gates on a technicality, and then proceed to win the race, would be pretty much the biggest middle-finger to the whole points system. Actually, that's not a bad idea... Still, not gonna hang my hopes on it at all. The horse has accomplished nothing, he got in on a technicality, and at the risk of pulling another Giacomo, I'm going to dismiss him. Just you watch him win it this time, just to spite me.
So, final analysis in short? I'm rooting for California Chrome and Ride On Curlin the most, though We Miss Artie and Commanding Curve get my default support due to their saddle towel numbrs. But still... I really do like the look of California Chrome but I wouldn't mind seeing Calvin Borel get another Derby victory.
I'm sure I'll be completely wrong come Saturday evening, but that's part of the beauty of the game -- you just can't tell what's going to happen.
This is an odd year. The horses feel very mediocre. Most of them have only won twice in at least six starts or more. There are only four Grade One winners in this race, and none from a G1 juvenile race. Everyone else is either G1 placed, G2 winner, G2 placed or lower. Pretty much nobody of prominence from the juvenile season of last year has held on to last into the final dance of the roses.
I've taken a lot of time to write this - I got started on it right after the post position draw on Wednesday and have been researching or writing steadily every chance I get, so this is a bit later (and contains stuff written from before the scratch) because, well, this is a LOT of writing to do and I have had to do a lot of cross-referencing and researching. :P
The morning line odds are from the revision after the scratch, by the way. Might as well tell it like it is officially.
#1: Vicar's in Trouble (20-1)
dkb/br.c. (Into Mischief - Vibrant, Vicar)
bred in Louisana by Spendthrift Farm LLC
owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
5 starts, 3 wins. G2 winner
An oddly named horse (well, okay, the name makes sense given the immediate pedigree, but still...) with a slightly questionable pedigree. I don't know much about Into Mischief as a stallion, but that bottom side looks questionable to me for a 20-horse cavalry charge at a mile and a quarter. A little deeper digging and I see that he has a dosage index of 5.00, which is well above the classic 4.0 threshold, but keep in mind that at the time, Curlin had a 4.00 DI (I think it's been adjusted in recent years as new chefs-de-race were added, but I'm not sure) and we all know that Curlin had no problems whatsoever with classic distances. The Dosage Index is by no means a hard rule, but it is a good bar to measure by. Plus, this horse here is nailed to the wall by being shoved in the one-hole. I don't know how many horses have one from the one-hole since 16-20-horse fields started being the norm, but I'm pretty sure that it ain't many. I'm gonna guess that most (if not all) of the horses who won wearing the #1 saddle towel had muuuuuch smaller fields to contend with. ANYWAY. I do like the Ramseys, and god knows I love Rosie Napravnik to death, but I don't think the stars are going to align for her on this one. It could, but I'd be pretty surprised.
#2: Harry's Holiday (50-1)
b.c. (Harlan's Holiday - Daisy Mason, Orientate)
bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones, et al
owned by Skychai Racing, et al
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
8 starts, 3 wins. G3 placed
A mystery animal here. Never even heard of him. I remember his sire... I sure liked the look of Harlan's Holiday way back when (2002 Derby, I think?) but... beyond that, not much. Looking further into the 5-cross, I'm confused. This horse has a 2.00 Dosage Index, but that looks like a very miler pedigree to me. I could be wrong, I'm not up on the recent history, but... Orientate was very much a sprinter, came from a sprinting sire, and while Stop The Music (way back in the fourth cross at the very bottom) was a good distance horse, that's too far back to influence much. I really don't know what to make of this. On the one hand, Orientate and Mt Livermore.... on the other hand, Storm Cat and Affirmed. I kinda think that, based on this pedigree, this distance might be a bit too much, but only because this looks like a miler or mile-and-an-eighth sort of pedigree. I just noticed something else very interesting... this colt is out of a half sister to Into Mischief (the sire of the horse to his immediate left in the gate). Both Harry's Holiday and Vicar's In Trouble have Harlan's Holiday and Leslie's Lady in the first or second cross of their pedigrees. That's actually really interesting, I have never seen that before in the Derby. In any case, I don't know his connections (don't know much about Mike Maker, other than he has three horses in this race, so he must be the next big thing, because usually it's Pletcher, Dutrow or Baffert who has multiple entries in the big races) so I really can't make an informed assessment of them. Either way, I kinda don't think this horse is gonna do anything.
#3: Uncle Sigh (30-1)
b.c. (Indian Charlie - Cradlesong, Pine Bluff)
bred in New York by Milfer Farm
owned by Wounded Warrior Stables, et al
Trainer: Gary Contessa
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr
5 starts, 1 win. G3 placed
I don't particularly like this horse's name, and I'm not impressed with the pedigree. Indian Charlie is not what I'd call a Derby sire. His best progeny are mostly sprinters and mid distance. And Pine Bluff is not a good enough offset, and AP Indy and Seattle Slew are too far back in the pedigree to really be effective. This horse's DI is 3.00, but mostly because he's got Danzig and AP Indy (and thus Seattle Slew and Northern Dancer) on the bottom of his pedigree. I don't really know anything about the connections, so I'm going to just pass this one over.
#4: Danza (8-1)
ch.c. (Street Boss - Champagne Royale, French Deputy)
bred in Kentucky by Liberation Farm, et al.
owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joe Bravo
4 starts, 2 wins. G1 winner
Who's the boss? Maybe this horse, though I don't think so. I'm fairly certain that he was named for Tony Danza, the star of the 80s sitcom "Who's The Boss?" but that's almost the only thing that he has going for him, for me. I'm not a fan of Pletcher, I'm largely indifferent to the pedigree (I have a soft spot for Ogygian, I'll be honest), and I don't really know anything about the rest of the connections. The Dosage Index is pretty standard 3.00, so I don't really think it's reliable to use that, because a horse with a spread like that could very easily steal this race if it falls apart. That said, not really interested in it. If he does win, though, god knows that the "Who's The Boss" puns will go into overdrive in every fucking media outlet out there, so for that reason, if no other, I kinda hope this horse finishes up the track. Also, I'm not a fan of horses that are this lightly raced going into the Derby... I can't help but think the horse is fragile, if they babied him along so much that he only started four times in the past year.
#5: California Chrome (5-2)
ch.c. (Lucky Pulpit - Love the Chase, Not For Love)
bred in California by Perry Martin and Steven Coburn
homebred (races for breeders)
Trainer: Art Sherman
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
10 starts, 6 wins. G1 winner
I'm not sure why I like this horse, I'm pretty sure he's overrated, but I still like him. I am a fan of flashy chesnuts, after all. He has the most starts and the most wins in the field, I think, which is a plus, and he's coming in on a bit of a streak. And he's a homebred, which I've always kinda liked, (especially if it's a homebred for someone other than a mega-stable like Darley or Juddmonte). His pedigree is a legit mystery to me, I know nothing about the sire or dam, and only Pulpit rings any bells for me in the first two crosses. Beyond that, the pedigree is a mystery. Still, I'm pulling for this guy because why not? (Also, I found out recently that Art Sherman used to be an exercise rider for Swaps, the 1955 sensation. That, if nothing else, is pretty awesome. A guy who's been around for so long, around genuinely legendary horseflesh, still out there training horses and dreaming of roses.) I will be very happy if this horse wins, though I sincerely have no idea if he can or not. Morning line favorites don't usually pan out (though it did last year, so what do I know?) but he's proven he's a talented colt and at the very least, he's bringing a little energy to this. No matter what, I wish him the best of luck through this race and the rest of the season. I hope he'll still be around at the end of the year, not squirreled away on a farm to prepare for breeding.
#6: Samraat (15-1)
dkb/br.c. (Noble Causeway - Little Indian Girl, Indian Charlie)
bred in New York by My Meadowview
homebred (raced by breeder)
Trainer: Richard Violette Jr
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
6 races, 5 wins. G3 winner, G1 placed
Heard this named bandied about recently, nothing more than that. I remember Noble Causeway a little bit, but not much. Another Indian Charlie descendant, though this is through the dam. Based on the dosage, this horse is perfectly suited for the distance. I should also add that there is no inbreeding through the fifth cross, which is nice and is somewhat rare these days. An intriguing pedigree, and a potentially talented colt. Certainly a live wire, and the six hole isn't a bad spot to be in, though it's not the best either. All in all, an intriguing prospect, though I really don't particularly like his pedigree for the Belmont.
#7: We Miss Artie (50-1)
dkb/br.c. (Artie Schiller - Athena's Gift, Fusaichi Pegasus)
bred in Ontario, Canada, by Richard Lister
owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Javier Castellano
8 starts, 3 wins. G3 winner, G2 placed
Well, well, well, I was starting to wonder when we'd see some of the Artie Schillers! Also, this is our only foreign-born horse in the race (how weird, to call a Canadian horse "foreign" but technically it's another country). His pedigree is loaded to the teeth with superstars, the dosage profile is very number-heavy. There's a lot there, so he's got a lot to live up to. However... wasn't Artie Schiller primarily a grass miler? For all that he was loaded with distance quality in his pedigree, I seem to recall him excelling at a mile on the lawn. I'm intrigued by that morning line, since I never expected a Ramsey-owned, Pletcher-trained, Castellano-ridden horse would get such high odds for the morning line, but perhaps the horse doesn't belong at all. That pedigree is suspiciously grass, and I know nothing about the horse's performances, but I'm going to assume that the morning line reflects that the horse has done nothing to prove he belongs. Either he's there because Pletcher legitimately thinks he has a shot, or the Ramseys are so desperate for the roses that they'll take any runner that can earn a spot in the gates (though they do have another one here too). Either way, the pedigree is nice, but I don't think the Derby is going to be his stage. We'll see. I should add that I will be rooting for him by default, because 7 is one of my lucky numbers, but... not really going to call this a likelihood. It feels a little too desperate to me.
#8: General a Rod (15-1)
dkb/br.c. (Roman Ruler - Dynamite Eyes, Dynaformer)
bred in Kentucky by Hare Forest Farm
owned by Skychai Racing, Starlight Racing, et al
Trainer: Mike Maker
Jockey: Joel Rosario
5 starts, 2 wins. G1 placed
This horse's name confuses me. Why is the "a" not capitalized? Stupid me, I thought the horse was named after "A Rod" (Baseball player Alex Rodriguez) until I saw that the A isn't an initial. Is that a mistake on the part of the Jockey Club? Okay, okay, I need to not focus on the name now.... er... So what exactly has this horse accomplished? On paper, nothing much. A listed stakes win, a second in the Fountain of Youth and a third in the Florida Derby. The pedigree is decent (not sure how good Roman Ruler is as a stallion, but I'm pretty sure he's not bad, and with Dynaformer very close in the pedigree, this colt is probably decently durable and probably won't be afraid of an off track (thouhg it looks like he's never raced on one, so who knows?). I heard he had a very lackluster workout recently, but frankly, that could be a trick by the trainer to deflect attention from the horse. I personally don't put a lot of stock in workouts, because they're done by horses under an experienced exercise rider's hand, and if the trainer ordered a slower work, we won't know that. If he had put forth a really, really fast work right before the race, that might be significant (potential morning glory sorta thing) but... personally, I think a slow workout by the horse, unless it is a surprise to the trainer, is indicative of nothing. Personally, I think this horse is a bit over-hyped, as he's accomplished pretty much nothing, but we'll see. I've been made a fool of before by dismissing a horse who hadn't won anything other than a maiden race.
#9: Vinceremos (30-1)
dkb/br.c. (Pioneerof the Nile - Kettle's Sister, More Than Ready)
bred in Kentucky by Machmer Hall
owned by Winstar Farm, et al
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joseph Rocco, Jr
5 starts, 2 wins. G3 winner, G2 placed
I don't know anything about this horse, never heard of him. He kinda looks like he's come out of nowhere. I'm not very impressed with the pedigree. On the one hand, I can see the influence of a couple of Classic winners (Empire Maker and Unbridled), and on the other, I see either names I've never seen before, or one I do recognize but associate with two-year-old speedsters. I've never considered More Than Ready to be much of a Classic stallion, even when offset with a known distance pedigree underside. And I was never really impressed with Pioneerof the Nile. I'm going to just give this horse a pass, because I don't really like any of the connections, and the pedigree does nothing for me. Also, that Dosage Index is kind of impressive... you don't see 7.00 DIs very often because most people try to aim for around 3.00 or 4.00, I think. At least, that's usually what you see. 7.00 is absurdly high... Everything is focused in the speed category. I don't think this horse really should be here... I really think 10 furlongs is a bit too far for a grandson of More Than Ready.
#10: Wildcat Red (15-1)
b.c. (D'Wildcat - Racene, Miner's Mark)
bred in Florida by Moreau Bloodstock, et al
owned by Honors Stable
Trainer: Jose Garoffalo
Jockey: Luis Saez
7 starts, 4 wins. G2 winner, G1 placed
Another mystery to me. I don't know anything about the connections, and that pedigree just confuses me. I'm pretty sure that D'Wildcat was a sprinter, and this horse's Dosage Index implies that too -- 5.67 is pretty high. If you go back far enough, you see some durability and distance, but that's going really far back, and I'm pretty sure that the sire and dam are the most influential part of the pedigree. Not really impressed with this horse, so I'm going to just pass him over.
#11: Hoppertunity SCRATCHED
b.c. (Any Given Saturday - Refugee, Unaccounted For)
bred in Kentucky by Betz/D.J. Stable/Kidder/J. Betz/Robenalt (I have no idea how to shorten that so I'm just gonna copy-paste that)
owned by Mike Pegram, et al
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
5 starts, 2 wins. G2 winner, G1 placed
Aww, Pegram and his beer puns! To be fair, it might not be that at all, but still, the moment I saw who owned the horse, I stopped questioning where the name came from. Pegram has a penchant for odd little names for some of his horses, and he's had a few with beer-related names (Silverbulletday, for instance). The pedigree is a bit of a question to me. I know Any Given Saturday was a good horse, but I don't know much about the bottom half fo the pedigree, and I don't know how good a stallion Any Given Saturday is. Still, I like the looks of this horse and will root for him. However, he did not race as a two year old. Can we say "Apollo Jinx" anyone? I'd love to see him break it, and looking at his morning line, I think the odds-makers think he has a shot, but... I kinda doubt it. That jinx is pretty much the granddaddy of all Derby jinxes. UPDATE: Hoppertunity has been scratched. I'll leave this here cuz I spent a fair amount of time researching and writing, but he's no longer in the game. Therefore, the Apollo Jinx lives on, by default.
#12: Dance With Fate (20-1)
dkb/br.c. (Two Step Salsa - Flirting With Fate, Saint Ballado)
bred in Florida by Best A Luck Farm
owned by Ciaglia Racing, et al
Trainer: Peter Eurton
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
8 starts, 3 wins. G1 winner
Wow, who is this? I've heard the name a little, but not much. That pedigree is a complete wildcard to me -- you have to go back to the third cross to find names I recognize (well, I sorta vaguely recognize Saint Ballado, but mostly because of his champion son Saint Liam and champion daughter Ashado.) I Then you start seeing some big names -- Halo, Seattle Slew, Seeking the Gold (a good son of Mr Prospector, and one that I've felt has been underrated because of some of Mr P's more flashy sons) and Belong to Me (a good broodmare sire, as I recall). I had to look up Petionville (Two Step Salsa's sire) to see who else he sired, and honestly, I should have recognized the name, because I remember a fair few of his best runners, except for Two Step Salsa himself (weirdly enough, given that he's one of Petionville's top earners on the track, a millionaire at that.) That being said, Petionville's top runners were mostly fillies (in particular, I remember Island Fashion) and except for Island Fashion, they still weren't all that great, were typically flashes in the pan. Dance With Fate seems to be another of this kind of thing, and I kind of question that he can carry the momentum long enough to win this huge race before he fizzles out. I'm not going to hang my hopes on it, especially since I don't think the Blue Grass is a very good prep, for all that it's a G1.
#13: Chitu (20-1)
ch.c. (Henny Hughes - Sea Gift, A.P. Indy)
bred in Kentucky by Tom Evans, et al
owned by Tanma Corporation
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
4 starts, 3 wins. G3 winner
Who on earth is this? I've never heard of him before. Clearly I haven't been paying attention. Then again, with only 4 starts on his record, he hasn't been around much, so that could explain why I haven't heard of him -- he jumped into the ring at the last minute. Also... correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Henny Hughes a sprinter? Isn't that kind of the hallmark of Hennessy's stud legacy -- promising two year olds and sprinters? If that's the case, however, how did this horse fly under the radar for so long? Such a mystery. The Dosage Index (2.56) is, to my mind, a bit deceptive because of how close in the pedgiree A.P. Indy is. Indy has a lot of chefs-de-race in his own pedigree, so that's going to throw some weight in. That being said, he has won at 9 furlongs, and at a pretty decent speed for the race, so perhaps the pedigree is nothing more than a road bump. On the other hand... I don't think the Sunland Derby is much of a prep race yet. We'll see, I guess, but I really don't think I want him to win, just because it's really annoying when horses take as few races as possible on the road to the Derby. It's pretty hard to handicap a race where half your field has faced the starter less than five times, and many of them have not faced each other. Considering the prestige of this race, you'd think its participants would have crossed paths with each other at some point in their race careers, but not as likely when you're ducking and then diving into one race to get the Win And You're In points. (I'm not exactly saying that's what Chitu did, since he did face at least one other Derby contender in the Bob Lewis... but still, I don't like it lightly-raced horses set light-race precedents.) I kinda think this horse is a bit too inexperienced to win this race, but who knows.
#14: Medal Count (20-1)
b.c. (Dynaformer - Brisquette, Unbridled's Song)
bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet
owned by Spendthrift Farm
Trainer: Dale Romans
Jockey: Robby Albarado
7 starts, 3 wins. G3 winner, G1 placed
On the one hand, that is a very intriguing pedigree. Zero inbreeding, for one thing. Also, there's a pair of breed titans in the first two crosses. Dynaformer is formidable as all hell and was generally known for throwing sturdy runners, while Unbridled's Song was known to throw fragile speedster babies who often had glass ankles. (Yes I'm still bitter about Eight Belles, but Unbridled's Song had a lot more progeny who retired with leg, ankle or foot injuries too. The Dynaformers were, generally, far more sound.) On the other hand... I question the surface. I think he's more suited to turf or synthetic (and it looks like he hasn't done well when he raced on dirt.) The distance shouldn't be a problem, but I kinda think the surface will. However, I seem to recall that Dynaformers tend to be good mudders, so if the track ends up sloppy, this horse might well take to it like a fish. I guess we'll see what happens. Certainly a possibility, though I still have my doubts.
#15: Tapiture (12-1)
ch.c. (Tapit - Free Spin, Olympio)
bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds
homebred (raced by breeder)
Trainer: Steve Assmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana
7 starts, 2 wins. G2 winner
Urgh. Not a fan of the Tapits, and definitely not a fan of Assmussen. I will give the horse props for both of his career wins being in graded stakes, that's somewhat impressive -- usually horses break their maidens in a maiden race before diving into graded company, but this one didn't. He broke his maiden in a G2 and followed it up with a G3, before fizzling. Still... I really see nothing to like here. As I said, I'm not a fan of the Tapits, and the bottom half of the pedigree is a mystery to me. Passing this one over, cuz there's nothing to like here.
#16: Intense Holiday (8-1)
b.c. (Harlan's Holiday - Intensify, Unbridled's Song)
bred in Kentucky by Machmer Hall, et al
owned by Starlight Racing
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
8 starts, 2 wins. G2 winner
This year, it's Holidays instead of Kittens! Two sons of Harlan's Holiday (plus a grandson) are in the Derby, and both of them have Holiday in the name. In this one's case... the name is pretty unimaginative. Pedigree-wise, I'm going to assume that the distance won't be much of a problem (I don't think Harlan's Holidays ever really have much trouble with 10 furlongs, and I really don't see any limitations in the bottom half (the Unbridled's Songs, I think, tended to prefer 9 furlongs, but could usually go further without much trouble.) Also, another pedigree with no inbreeding in five crosses -- it's really nice to see that. We're slowly moving away from trying to make super-horses by inbreeding to Mr P and Northern Dancer and Secretariat and Seattle Slew. Anyway, distance probably won't be a problem, but I'm still not sold. Maybe it's because of Pletcher, though I doubt it (This probably is Pletcher's best hope in the race, after all). All in all, a middle-of-the-road horse, very much on a par with pretty much everyone else.
#17: Commanding Curve (50-1)
b.r. (Master Command - Mother, Lion Hearted)
bred in Kentucky by T.V. VanMeter
owned by West Point Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan
6 starts, 2 wins. G2 placed
Well this is a little discouraging. I tend to favor the 17 horse in this race (since this is one race that actually legitimately has a #17 horse; most races don't use the auxiliary gate, so 16 horses is the max) because, well, 17 is my favorite number. But this horse does nothing at all for me. The pedigree is bland, I'm not a fan of West Point, and he really hasn't done anything. You don't see the term "ridgling" used very often in this level of race, so I wonder if he's a ridgling like A.P. Indy (only one descended testicle) or if he's basically a natural gelding (incapable of breeding). Then again, I'm not up on the terminology or the biology of breeding, so perhaps even if both testicles are undescended, the horse could still breed. After all, geldings have had the testicles entirely removed; ridglings still have them, they're just not descended. Anyway, I'm going to assume the latter, since A.P. Indy is generally referred to as a fertile horse (even now, as a pensioned stallion), so I'm going to assume that for a horse to be called a "ridgling" on a program, he must have both testicles undescended. Either way, I'm not impressed and I'm probably more likely to root for the horse who comes out of the 17 gate rather than the horse wearing the 17 cloth. We'll see, I guess.
#18: Candy Boy (15-1)
b.c. (Candy Ride[ARG] - She's an Eleven, In Excess[IRE])
bred in Kentucky by Lee and Susan Searing
homebred (raced by breeder, under the name CRK Stable)
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Gary Stevens
7 starts, 2 wins. G2 winner, G1 placed
Not to sure what to make of this one. The bottom half of the pedigree is a mystery to me (I'm fairly familiar with Candy Ride, mostly thanks to his sons Sidney's Candy and Twirling Candy.) I know the Candy Rides are often successful in California... not sure how good they fair back east, especially on the traditional dirt surface like Churchill. Still, I don't think distance will be a problem, and he can handle dirt, since he handled Santa Anita fine. The post may be a problem, since that's a long distance away from the rail for a horse that doesn't look like he likes being very far back (most of his races appear to have him clumped just off the pace). However, with only two wins on the books, it's hard to say what he really likes. He's got a Derby pro in the irons, and it's possible that the race could fall apart around him and set up for him to win.
#19: Ride On Curlin (15-1)
b.c. (Curlin - Magical Ride, Storm Cat)
bred in Kentucky by G. Watts Humphrey Jr. & Louise Ireland Humphrey Revocable Trust
owned by Daniel Dougherty
Trainer: William Gowan
Jockey: Calvin Borel
9 starts, 2 wins. G1 placed
Oh my. I don't like the name at all (how utterly boring and linear, plus it's such a shout-out to the sire, and feels a bit like coattail riding), but... that's about the only thing I really don't like about him. I've grown soft towards Curlin (I used to dislike him, but that was largely because of his connections) and... quite frankly, that is a nice distance pedigree. We know that Curlin himself could handle classic distances (it's not his fault he couldn't mow down Rags To Riches in the Belmont, and he more than made up for it later with other 10 furlong wins) and that he has already produced a classic winner himself (his son won the Belmont last year, after all), and the bottom half of this pedigree is loaded with balance - Storm Cat and Seeking the Gold are in the immediate cross for Magical Ride. Also, this horse has got a lion on his back. You never want to count out Calvin Borel. Bet against him at your own risk, especially in this race. At the very least, this colt seems to be a model of in-the-money consistency (he's been in the money in eight of his nine races) and would be a good exotic bet. However, the main reason I think most people will back him, really, is going to be his jockey. And I wouldn't mind seeing Calvin land Derby Win #4
#20: Wicked Strong (6-1)
b.c. (Hard Spun - Moyne Abbey, Charismatic)
bred in Kentucky by William Lynn
owned by Centennial Farms
Trainer: James Jerkens
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh
6 starts, 2 wins. G1 winner
On the one hand, I tend to dismiss the Wood Memorial (probably because I usually don't like the winner). On the other hand... I still kinda like this horse. It's an awful post, way out in Siberia, but it's not impossible to win this race from that far out (Big Brown did it pretty easily six years ago). And that pedigree is a sentimental delight to me. I've always loved Charismatic, and Hard Spun won my respect when he put forth a respectable pace in the 2007 Derby, and managed to hold off all but the freight train Street Sense. That was a race loaded with classy horses, and there should have been no way for a pace-setter to do so well, and yet he did. Had Street Sense encountered any traffic problems while hurtling through the pack, Hard Spun probably would have won that race. Even in defeat himself, Hard Spun beat a lot of good horses, and he beat them pretty soundly. On a technical aspect of the pedigree, again, there are giants at play here, since Hard Spun is a son of the kingmaker Danzig, and is among the last of the Danzigs. This puts Northern Dancer in the third cross for Wicked Strong, which is becoming much rarer these days, since sons and daughters of the great Dancer are vanishing, and their progeny are diluting. As far as distance goes, I'd say that on paper, Wicked Strong will be just fine. There's nothing in the pedigree to suggest any trouble with ten furlongs. However, the pedigree isn't the only thing in play here, and I'm a little hesitant to really back this horse, since it looks to me like the Wood Memorial was a huge performance for him, and the last couple of times I recall a horse putting forth a huge effort to win the Wood, they failed to have any impact on the Derby. You have to go all the way back to Fusaichi Pegasus to find the last horse to win the Wood and then win the Derby. Most of the time, if the Wood winner even makes it into the gate of the Derby, he clumps home out of the money. To be fair, the same can be said of most finale preps for the Derby, but... I dunno, I guess I still have a bit of a bias against that race. Either way, Wicked Strong does have a shot at the roses, I guess, though that post is going to be a hell of an obstacle.
AE: Pablo Del Monte (50-1)
ch.c. (Giant's Causeway - One Hot Wish, Bring the Heat)
bred in Kentucky by Wesley Ward
owned by Michael Tabor, et al.
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Jeffery Sanchez
6 starts, 2 wins. G1 placed.
Probably not gonna make it into the gates, which is too bad for the Tabors, since they're among those big gun stables that try to make every Derby in the hopes of finally winning the damned race through sheer perseverance. UPDATE: With the scratch of Hoppertunity, I presume that this horse is now a go, as he is now listed as being in the final gate. I really don't have any input on it, really. It's a really uninspiring Tabor entry, one who has done nothing more than pick up the leftovers in the graded stakes. It would be the ultimate irony for him to win, I suppose, considering he really shouldn't be in the gates, he was #21 on the list at entry time, and up until last year, AEs weren't allowed in the Derby, so scratches after the draw left horses like this out of the gate. For him to get into the gates on a technicality, and then proceed to win the race, would be pretty much the biggest middle-finger to the whole points system. Actually, that's not a bad idea... Still, not gonna hang my hopes on it at all. The horse has accomplished nothing, he got in on a technicality, and at the risk of pulling another Giacomo, I'm going to dismiss him. Just you watch him win it this time, just to spite me.
So, final analysis in short? I'm rooting for California Chrome and Ride On Curlin the most, though We Miss Artie and Commanding Curve get my default support due to their saddle towel numbrs. But still... I really do like the look of California Chrome but I wouldn't mind seeing Calvin Borel get another Derby victory.
I'm sure I'll be completely wrong come Saturday evening, but that's part of the beauty of the game -- you just can't tell what's going to happen.