Kentucky Derby 139
It's that time again! Time for me to make my usual inaccurate assessment of the Kentucky Derby. I trie to pay attention this year, but I just... couldn't. I have not watched any prep races (not that they were not available, but rather because I just do not care as much anymore right now. No big horse has grabbed my attention, and I am very uninspired by the names of these horses.) so I will be going mostly off my gut feeling based on pedigree, connections, and overall sense. Please note that I have not picked a winner since probably Smarty Jones (though I did pull for Barbaro, I was certain he would finish up the track) so I am not good at assessing this. Still, I like to do it, because it's kind of fun.
As in past years, I'm doing this by post position draw, with the basic info of the horse followed by a brief description of how I feel about the entry, including the horse's pedigree and connections, as I see fit. As this year (same as last year) has an alternate entry who will draw into the field in the event of a late scratch, that horse is included in this list at the end, in the 21 slot, though I think if he draws in, he'll simply go into the post position vacated by a scratch (not 100% sure how that works, don't really care).
On to the horses!
1) Black Onyx (dkb/br. c. Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town)
* Trainer: Kelly Breen | Jockey: Joe Bravo
Tough spot! The rail is generally bad for anyone. It can be won from, of course, but in a 20-horse cavalry-charge, it's pretty difficult. Pedigree-wise, Rock Hard Ten was a solid 10-furlong horse. I don't know about Cape Town, though his pedigree suggests distance. However, it looks to me like Black Onyx is coming into Churchill off of synthetic races. While not impossible, it seems like kind of a red flag to me. I like this horse's name a lot and I'll be rooting for him cuz I like Joe Bravo and Kelly Breen, but I kind of think that the rail is going to clip his chances.
2) Oxbow (b.c. Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Song)
* Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas | Jockey: Gary Stevens
Holy mother of pearl, this is a wildcard! I know shit about him beyond these few details I'm seeing here, but all I had to do was look at his pedgiree and his connections. He's got D. Wayne Lukas (like him or hate him, you cannot deny his impact on the sport!) and Gary Stevens (who has had luck with Lukas horses in the Derby before, though that was a long time ago) and his pedigree is sparkling with potential. This horse is out of a full sister to Tiznow (only horse to win the Breeders Cup Classic twice) and sired by the 1998 Breeders Cup Classic winner Awesome Again (who has sired a number of Breeders Cup winners, including Ghostzapper). Pedigree-wise, the distance is absolutely no problem at all. Granted, Tiznow has a lot of full siblings, and most of them turned out to be subpar, but Cee's Tizzy and Cee's Song have proven to be a potent combination all the same. And Awesome Again is a really good, durable stallion. For such a scintillating pedigree, I'm surprised he has such a boring name (seriously, oxbows are not that amazing.) Oh well. I know nothing about this horse's racing patterns, but I am going to say that at this point, his biggest handicaps are going to be his post position (second from the rail is still pretty damned close to burial) and the fact that his connections are both long-timers in the game, in a race that tends to somehow favor newcomers. Not saying Lukas and Stevens can't do it again, but the odds are kind of stacking up against them as time goes on.
3) Revolutionary (b.c. War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Calvin Borel
This horse is going to be bet down, I guarantee it. Why? His rider, Calvin Borel, is a legend on Churchill's oval. Borel is a 3-time Derby winner, but unlike fellow three-timer Stevens, he won his three recently. He won in 2007, 2009 and 2010. He won three Derbies over the course of four years. I like Calvin a lot, have great respect for him and his charisma, but I can't get behind Pletcher horses. Plus, I'm not convinced by that pedigree. A.P. Indy could run all day, but War Pass is by Cherokee Run, who primarily got sprinters, and War Pass himself fizzled early in his career (and died young, sadly). I recognize Runup the Colors but I don't remember where from. Looking at the five-cross pedigree, I think I can see why -- she's 19 years old. She was a racer in the mid 1990s. She was probably one of A.P. Indy's early stakes winners, that stamped him as a stallion to pay attention to. I'm going to shake my head at this horse, because I think it just won't quite work out for him. I can't really say why, and if I'm wrong, I'll be glad for Calvin's sake. Remember, these connections gave us Super Saver back in 2010, and at least this name isn't as dumb. But I'm still skeptical.
4) Golden Soul (ch.c. Perfect Soul[Ire] - Hollywood Gold, by Mr Prospector)
* Trainer: Dallas Stewart | Jockey: Robby Albarado
HOLY SHIT LOOK AT THAT PEDIGREE. Perfect Soul is an accomplished (champion, even?) son of Sadler's Wells and if I'm not mistaken, Hollywood Gold is a champion daughter of Mr Prospector. This colt has got titans in his pedigree, in the first and second generations back. On paper, this colt will have no trouble with the distance (sons of Sadler's Wells throw route babies all the time) but as to how well he'll do in this cavalry charge... I dunno. This is one I will pay attention to, though, because that's quite a pedigree!
5) Normandy Invasion (b.c. Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor)
* Trainer: Chad Brown | Jockey: Javier Castellano
Our first Tapit in the race. I think there are a couple. Not sure. (Turns out he's the only one. Go figure.) Tapit's a hot commodity right now, like his late sire was. We've seen the Unbridled descendants do just fine in this race, so I'm not concerned about the horse's durability for this race, though I'm not convinced that Tapits are durable for a long haul campaign. They seem to flash brilliance and fizzle, but not always (Tapit fillies seem to be more durable than the colts, but that could be due to the fillies' pedigrees too. Not sure.) Pedigree-wise, Tapit has shown he can throw good routers, and I don't see any reason to think that Boston Harbor would choke that. Distance probably won't be his undoing. I just don't know if he's good enough to overcome the psychological head-crush that the Derby ends up being. He's a decent ways out from the rail, but he still has fifteen horses to his right who will be bearing in on him too. Intriguing prospect.
6) Mylute (gr/r.c. Midnight Lute - Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations)
* Trainer: Tom Amoss | Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Aww yeah, now we're cooking with gas! ROSIE! I love Rosie Napravnik. I so want her to win this! I don't think she will, because I think that her horse is a little wanting in credentials, but you never know! Lesser horses have won the Derby (GIACOMO COMES TO MIND. So does Mine That Bird.) His pedigree makes me head-tilt a bit. His sire, Midnight Lute, was a champion sprinter. But Midnight Lute was bred for distance, so it's kind of an open question. The bottom half of this pedigree doesn't give me much confidence either, but it's also refreshing to look at a pedigree that is not riddled with a half-dozen inbreeding crosses. His inbreeding is out in the fourth and fifth generations, and they're to In Reality and Raise a Native. I should add that I like this pedigree, but I'm not convinced that 10, 9.5 and 12 furlongs are up this horse's ally. He looks like a miler on paper to me. Still, I'm going to root for this one because Rosie kicks ass, and I liked Midnight Lute. Mostly because of Rosie, though. Love her. She's so cute, and so fucking good.
7) Giant Finish (ch.c. Frost Giant - Apocalyptic, by Hickman Creek)
* Trainer: Tony Dutrow | Jockey: Jose Espinosa
I'm kind of side-eying this one. First of all, I've never even heard of him, so he came out of nowhere probably by picking up leftovers from prep races. He just barely squeaks into the field, too, looks like he was #20 on the list of entrants in terms of qualifying points. I'm mostly side-eying his connections. Another Dutrow? Given how much I despise Rick Dutrow, I'm not inclined to favor this person either. Pedigree-wise, this horse's pedigree is a huge question mark to me. I vaguely remember Frost Giant, but I've never heard of Hickman Creek. Looking at the five-cross, it appears that Hickman Creek is an unremarkable son of Seattle Slew, but interestingly enough, is a grandson of Buckpasser. You don't see Buckpasser in modern pedigrees much anymore. I really cannot comment on Giant Finish's ability to race 10 furlongs, though, because I don't remember anything about Frost Giant (other than being a son of Giants Causeway) and Buckpasser and Seattle Slew are too far back in the pedigree to offer much. This horse will be interesting as a wild card. Also, I am known to favor horses in the 7 hole.
8) Goldencents (b.c. Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold)
* Trainer: Doug O'Neill | Jockey: Kevin Krigger
Last year's Derby winning trainer is back with one of the favorites. Doug O'Neill is a good trainer, and this horse has been consistently on the radar most of the season, as I recall (his name has been bandied about for quite some time, even after all the early guns fired their rounds and dropped off the radar). Pedigree-wise, kind of a wild card. I sort of remember Into Mischief and I've heard of Banker's Gold. As far as how well he can handle 10 furlongs, I'm not sure. Harlan's Holiday, as I recall, was built for it. How well he did with it I don't really remember, but I remember him being a really beautiful, well-built racer. This is also a pedidgree with very little inbreeding, and interestingly, the inbreeding is entirely on the dam's side. The dam is inbred 4x4 to Raise a Native, so it makes this horse inbred 5x5 to that same stallion. That's the only inbreeding. This is a pretty blue-collar pedigree, but it could work out in their favor. I don't really think it will, but it could.
9) Overanalyze (b.c. Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Another of Pletcher's five horses (it's just not a Derby without a quarter of the field belonging to Pletcher, I swear. JFC.) and a very... interesting one. I want to dismiss him off the bat as a sprinter, but Dixie Union is not purely a sprinting stallion. Last year, we saw Union Rags hold on for 12 furlongs in a hell of a fight in the Belmont. This race probably is not beyond this horse's scope. It might not be his ideal distance, but I don't think it's too far either. That being said, I don't want him to win, because I want Pletcher to go 0 for 5 again. It's not that I hate Pletcher, I just am tired of him monopolizing things.
10) Palace Malice (b.c. Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Mike Smith
Oh look, it's this year's Sinister Minister. That token horse who will get play because people think his name is clever. Joy. All the same, that's quite a pedigree. I... kind of think that he's on the wrong surace. I could be wrong, but he kind of looks more like a turf horse than a dirt horse. I know he's by Curlin, but Curlin's own pedigree always looked more turf than dirt to me, and the rest of this horse's pedigree is reinforcing that to me. Distance shouldn't be a problem on paper. All the same, I don't really like him. I like Mike Smith, but I don't like this horse, and I'm not a fan of Pletcher, as illustrated above.
11) Lines of Battle (dkb/br.c. War Front - Black Speck, by Arch)
* Trainer: Aidan O'Brien | Jockey: Ryan Moore
Obligatory Tabor entry. They always find their way into this race unless their best horses all drop off the trail due to injury. I don't really know much about this horse. Looks like he won over in Dubai, which I want to say will disqualify him from actually winning, because Dubai is a massive leap from Churchill, but I'm not sure I should write him off for that alone. The pedigree doesn't excite me that much. War Front was a good racehorse, but as a stallion, I'm not sure he can hold up to his sire's legacy. Also, there is some massive inbreeding to Danzig. HOWEVER, it should be noted that Black Speck is out of Andover Way, making her a half-sister to Dynaformer. Dynaformer was a steel-clad horse, and his progeny proved to be very sturdy and durable, and very versatile. (Also, as I recall, Dynaformers tend to be good mudders. Don't know if that came from his sire or dam, though.) This is a pretty potent pedigree. However, I still don't think I like this horse. I'm not a huge fan of the Tabors as a general rule, nor of O'Brien.
12) Itsmyluckyday (dkb/br.c. Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court)
* Trainer: Edward Plesa, Jr. | Jockey: Elvis Trujillo
Hmm, I've heard this name bandied about, sort of just below the radar. Not sure what all he can do, but he's an effective wildcard. His pedigree is intriguing. Lawyer Ron died so young, so we'll never really know what he could do at stud, but Itsmyluckyday, like a couple others in this list, has a pedigree that is remarkably clear of inbreeding. His inbreeding is to Nearctic, which is entirely in his sire's side. In fact, that inbreeding goes back to Lawyer Ron's sire Langfuhr (Langfuhr is inbred 3x3 to Nearctic, making Lawyer Ron inbred 4x4 and thus Itsmyluckyday inbred 5x5). It's a pretty star-studded pedigree once you go a few generationsback, but up close, it's kind of plebian. This colt also has 10 starts on his record, which is significant (he's not the only one, granted, but there are others who have only five) and that isn't a bad thing. This is definitely a horse to watch, if you ask me. His sire handled the distance just fine, his dam was bred to handle 9 to 10 furlongs, and if the race falls apart in front of everyone, this horse may have inherited enough guts from his sire to get the job done.
13) Falling Sky (b.c. Lion Heart - Sea Dragoness, by Sea Hero)
* Trainer: John Terranova | Jockey: Luis Saez
Another "who are you?" for me. Seriously, don't recognize this name. Obviously I have not paid enough attention. I'm not 100% convinced of this horse's pedigree working for this distance. On paper it should be fine, and Lion Heart, as I recall, held on solidly for second against Smarty Jones in 2004, but I'm still not sure about this. You can't inject Derby surprises and distant traces of Seattle Slew and call it good, in my book. I seem to recall Lion Heart capping out at 9 furlongs. He got the 10 furlongs of the Derby on heart alone, as I recall. This pedigree does not look very promising to me. This looks a bit more to me like someone got the chance to go in the Derby and decided to go ahead. A little like Trinniberg last year, except that we know for a fact that Trinniberg is a sprinter. This horse isn't necessarily a sprinter, but 10 furlongs may be out of his comfort zone.
14) Verrazano (b.c. More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Johnny Velasquez
I think this is Pletcher's star here, and I am not impressed. Why am I not impressed? Simple: More Than Ready is a sprinting/mile sire. Even Giant's Causeway underneath cannot overcome the fact that I think 10 furlongs is out of this horse's depth unless he gets really lucky and the race falls apart around him. I could be wrong, of course, but I don't think that he's going to like this race. I think 10 furlongs with 19 other tired horses crushing around him is going to unnerve this horse.
15) Charming Kitten (dkb/br.c. Kitten's Joy - Iteration, by Wild Again)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Edgar Prado
We have our first Kitten! The Ramseys amuse the everliving hell out of me with how they're flooding the industry with Kitten's Joy progeny, all named with the word "Kitten" in it. Kitten's Joy was a good horse, I won't say he wasn't, but he was a grass horse. He's also not that great of a stallion. He's okay, and he's probably holding his own thanks to his dedicated fanboy/fangirl combo of Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey. But he's not that good either. This colt has Prado in the irons (I love Prado!) but he is trained by Pletcher (ugh, sorry, not a fan.) I have a feeling that this horse will fade away into the woodwork once the race is over.
16) Orb (b.c. Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled)
* Trainer: Claude "Shug" McGaughey | Jockey: Joel Rosario
Your morning line favorite and current top earner is this horse, who runs for the same people who owned the incomparable Ruffian four decades ago. I'm surprised, because I figured he'd be a Claiborne horse, given his one-syllable name. He's a Phipps-bred horse too. That's why Shug is there -- where there are Phipps horses, there's Shug McGaughey. I like the pedigree to some degree -- I'm a big fan of Malibu Moon! I'm not a fan of Unbridled, but I can forgive this horse since he's out of a daughter of Unbridled instead of by a son of him. This horse has been getting a lot of attention (hence the morning line favoritism) but I'm not convinced by him either. I'll watch for him, but I have a hunch that he won't be in the winner's circle. Pity, as he has one of the better post draws, as it happens -- 16 is the last one in the main gate, meaning that there's a bit of a gap between post 16 and the auxiliary gate posts starting with 17. It means that Orb won't have horses pressing into him from the right the moment he jumps out of the gate -- he'll have time to get his stride underway before he gets crushed. However, 16 is not a popular winning post either, so he's not exactly on the highway to glory either. He'll have to win this race the hard way.
17) Will Take Charge (ch.c. Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere)
* Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas | Jockey: Jon Court
First of all, 17 is my lucky number. Of course, no one ever wins from this post for me. Of course. Also, I like D. Wayne Lukas. I also loved Take Charge Lady when she was on the track -- a prettier mare you rarely ever saw, and she was gutsy and talented. Also, this little guy is a chestnut (favorite color!) and he has a huge white blaze (I'm a sucker for chrome!). The biggest deterrant for me is his sire. I despise Unbridled's Song, and the last time I rooted for a foal of his in this race, she came in second and then broke down and died. I refuse to Eight Belles this poor guy. I gotta give this colt his due -- he made it to the Derby. That's a rare feat, especially for glass-ankled horses like his sire throws. But I doubt he'll win, because 17 is only ever lucky for me in the worst ways, not for this race, and because he's too fragile to handle it because of his glass-sculpture sire. More's the pity, as he's adorable. I love chestnuts with lots of chrome.
18) Frac Daddy (gr/r.c. Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away)
* Trainer: Ken McPeek | Jockey: Victor Lebron
This colt's sire couldn't have been any more obvious than the Kitten colts' sire would be. The difference is that I dislike Scat Daddy. Mostly because of his name (I don't care if "scat" is a type of vocalization - I will always correlate it to fecal matter, so "Scat Daddy" is no different to me than calling the horse "Poopoo Papa"), but I also felt he was really overrated. I've heard very little about this horse at all, and the pedigree is kind of a question mark to me. I really don't know what Skip Away was like as a stallion or as a broodmare sire, and I'm unimpressed with Scat Daddy, or even Johannesburg. This kind of looks like a middle-of-the-road horse who can grab the Derby roses if the race implode, but could never win on his own merits. I could be wrong, but my gut is dismissing him already.
19) Java's War (b.c. War Pass - Java[GB] by Rainbow Quest)
* Trainer: Ken McPeek | Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Wow, Kenny McPeek's horses are adjacent to each other. Weird. Anyway, another War Pass colt like Revolutionary. He's hung way out in Siberia right now, in the 19 hole. That's a hell of a place. He's got a lot of ground to cover. He's going to have to run more than 10 furlongs to win this one, becaus he's going to have to cut from the 19 path to the rail somehow without losing too much ground in the race. That's a tall order. I know I'll Have Another did it last year, but I don't think this guy's got the pedigree for it, Rainbow Quest be damned. Pity, as I like Leparoux and McPeek. We could see me proven wrong, but I kind of doubt it.
20) Vyjack (b.g. Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky)
* Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez | Jockey: Garret Gomez
Our lone gelding in the field, and he's hung way out in Sibera's outskirts! Poor guy! Another one by Into Mischief, and thus a bit of a mystery to me. However, unlike Goldencents, this horse has a really solid-looking bottom half of his pedigree. Stravinsky, Nureyev, Northern Dancer, Appalachee, Round Table... it looks like a grass horse's baseline to me. Also, there is ZERO inbreeding in five generations. I think this might be the first one (certainly first one I've noticed!) That's pretty rare these days in fashionable pedigrees. I'm going to root for this horse just because he's a gelding (I like geldings) but I'm going to assume that he's not going to have Big Brown's versatility or skill, so he probably won't do well.
AE) Fear the Kitten (b.c. Kitten's Joy - Dynarhythm, by Dynaformer)
* Trainer: Mike Maker | Jockey: Alan Garcia
There's our other Kitten horse, and possibly my favorite for name alone, just because it's such an absurd name! Gottan love the Ramseys, man. Anyway, about the horse. If he draws in, he may get bet down, especially if it rains, since he's got Dynaformer in there, and the Dynaformers are pretty good mudders. Stamina should be no problem, he's got it on both sides of the pedigree to handle the distance. If he fails this race or doesn't draw in, look for him in the Belmont, because this pedigree screams 12 furlongs to me.
So there you have it. My picks are, based on what I want, Mylute and Vyjack. Orb has a shot, but I'm rooting for Vyjack and Mylute.
As in past years, I'm doing this by post position draw, with the basic info of the horse followed by a brief description of how I feel about the entry, including the horse's pedigree and connections, as I see fit. As this year (same as last year) has an alternate entry who will draw into the field in the event of a late scratch, that horse is included in this list at the end, in the 21 slot, though I think if he draws in, he'll simply go into the post position vacated by a scratch (not 100% sure how that works, don't really care).
On to the horses!
1) Black Onyx (dkb/br. c. Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town)
* Trainer: Kelly Breen | Jockey: Joe Bravo
Tough spot! The rail is generally bad for anyone. It can be won from, of course, but in a 20-horse cavalry-charge, it's pretty difficult. Pedigree-wise, Rock Hard Ten was a solid 10-furlong horse. I don't know about Cape Town, though his pedigree suggests distance. However, it looks to me like Black Onyx is coming into Churchill off of synthetic races. While not impossible, it seems like kind of a red flag to me. I like this horse's name a lot and I'll be rooting for him cuz I like Joe Bravo and Kelly Breen, but I kind of think that the rail is going to clip his chances.
2) Oxbow (b.c. Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Song)
* Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas | Jockey: Gary Stevens
Holy mother of pearl, this is a wildcard! I know shit about him beyond these few details I'm seeing here, but all I had to do was look at his pedgiree and his connections. He's got D. Wayne Lukas (like him or hate him, you cannot deny his impact on the sport!) and Gary Stevens (who has had luck with Lukas horses in the Derby before, though that was a long time ago) and his pedigree is sparkling with potential. This horse is out of a full sister to Tiznow (only horse to win the Breeders Cup Classic twice) and sired by the 1998 Breeders Cup Classic winner Awesome Again (who has sired a number of Breeders Cup winners, including Ghostzapper). Pedigree-wise, the distance is absolutely no problem at all. Granted, Tiznow has a lot of full siblings, and most of them turned out to be subpar, but Cee's Tizzy and Cee's Song have proven to be a potent combination all the same. And Awesome Again is a really good, durable stallion. For such a scintillating pedigree, I'm surprised he has such a boring name (seriously, oxbows are not that amazing.) Oh well. I know nothing about this horse's racing patterns, but I am going to say that at this point, his biggest handicaps are going to be his post position (second from the rail is still pretty damned close to burial) and the fact that his connections are both long-timers in the game, in a race that tends to somehow favor newcomers. Not saying Lukas and Stevens can't do it again, but the odds are kind of stacking up against them as time goes on.
3) Revolutionary (b.c. War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Calvin Borel
This horse is going to be bet down, I guarantee it. Why? His rider, Calvin Borel, is a legend on Churchill's oval. Borel is a 3-time Derby winner, but unlike fellow three-timer Stevens, he won his three recently. He won in 2007, 2009 and 2010. He won three Derbies over the course of four years. I like Calvin a lot, have great respect for him and his charisma, but I can't get behind Pletcher horses. Plus, I'm not convinced by that pedigree. A.P. Indy could run all day, but War Pass is by Cherokee Run, who primarily got sprinters, and War Pass himself fizzled early in his career (and died young, sadly). I recognize Runup the Colors but I don't remember where from. Looking at the five-cross pedigree, I think I can see why -- she's 19 years old. She was a racer in the mid 1990s. She was probably one of A.P. Indy's early stakes winners, that stamped him as a stallion to pay attention to. I'm going to shake my head at this horse, because I think it just won't quite work out for him. I can't really say why, and if I'm wrong, I'll be glad for Calvin's sake. Remember, these connections gave us Super Saver back in 2010, and at least this name isn't as dumb. But I'm still skeptical.
4) Golden Soul (ch.c. Perfect Soul[Ire] - Hollywood Gold, by Mr Prospector)
* Trainer: Dallas Stewart | Jockey: Robby Albarado
HOLY SHIT LOOK AT THAT PEDIGREE. Perfect Soul is an accomplished (champion, even?) son of Sadler's Wells and if I'm not mistaken, Hollywood Gold is a champion daughter of Mr Prospector. This colt has got titans in his pedigree, in the first and second generations back. On paper, this colt will have no trouble with the distance (sons of Sadler's Wells throw route babies all the time) but as to how well he'll do in this cavalry charge... I dunno. This is one I will pay attention to, though, because that's quite a pedigree!
5) Normandy Invasion (b.c. Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor)
* Trainer: Chad Brown | Jockey: Javier Castellano
Our first Tapit in the race. I think there are a couple. Not sure. (Turns out he's the only one. Go figure.) Tapit's a hot commodity right now, like his late sire was. We've seen the Unbridled descendants do just fine in this race, so I'm not concerned about the horse's durability for this race, though I'm not convinced that Tapits are durable for a long haul campaign. They seem to flash brilliance and fizzle, but not always (Tapit fillies seem to be more durable than the colts, but that could be due to the fillies' pedigrees too. Not sure.) Pedigree-wise, Tapit has shown he can throw good routers, and I don't see any reason to think that Boston Harbor would choke that. Distance probably won't be his undoing. I just don't know if he's good enough to overcome the psychological head-crush that the Derby ends up being. He's a decent ways out from the rail, but he still has fifteen horses to his right who will be bearing in on him too. Intriguing prospect.
6) Mylute (gr/r.c. Midnight Lute - Stage Stop, by Valid Expectations)
* Trainer: Tom Amoss | Jockey: Rosie Napravnik
Aww yeah, now we're cooking with gas! ROSIE! I love Rosie Napravnik. I so want her to win this! I don't think she will, because I think that her horse is a little wanting in credentials, but you never know! Lesser horses have won the Derby (GIACOMO COMES TO MIND. So does Mine That Bird.) His pedigree makes me head-tilt a bit. His sire, Midnight Lute, was a champion sprinter. But Midnight Lute was bred for distance, so it's kind of an open question. The bottom half of this pedigree doesn't give me much confidence either, but it's also refreshing to look at a pedigree that is not riddled with a half-dozen inbreeding crosses. His inbreeding is out in the fourth and fifth generations, and they're to In Reality and Raise a Native. I should add that I like this pedigree, but I'm not convinced that 10, 9.5 and 12 furlongs are up this horse's ally. He looks like a miler on paper to me. Still, I'm going to root for this one because Rosie kicks ass, and I liked Midnight Lute. Mostly because of Rosie, though. Love her. She's so cute, and so fucking good.
7) Giant Finish (ch.c. Frost Giant - Apocalyptic, by Hickman Creek)
* Trainer: Tony Dutrow | Jockey: Jose Espinosa
I'm kind of side-eying this one. First of all, I've never even heard of him, so he came out of nowhere probably by picking up leftovers from prep races. He just barely squeaks into the field, too, looks like he was #20 on the list of entrants in terms of qualifying points. I'm mostly side-eying his connections. Another Dutrow? Given how much I despise Rick Dutrow, I'm not inclined to favor this person either. Pedigree-wise, this horse's pedigree is a huge question mark to me. I vaguely remember Frost Giant, but I've never heard of Hickman Creek. Looking at the five-cross, it appears that Hickman Creek is an unremarkable son of Seattle Slew, but interestingly enough, is a grandson of Buckpasser. You don't see Buckpasser in modern pedigrees much anymore. I really cannot comment on Giant Finish's ability to race 10 furlongs, though, because I don't remember anything about Frost Giant (other than being a son of Giants Causeway) and Buckpasser and Seattle Slew are too far back in the pedigree to offer much. This horse will be interesting as a wild card. Also, I am known to favor horses in the 7 hole.
8) Goldencents (b.c. Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold)
* Trainer: Doug O'Neill | Jockey: Kevin Krigger
Last year's Derby winning trainer is back with one of the favorites. Doug O'Neill is a good trainer, and this horse has been consistently on the radar most of the season, as I recall (his name has been bandied about for quite some time, even after all the early guns fired their rounds and dropped off the radar). Pedigree-wise, kind of a wild card. I sort of remember Into Mischief and I've heard of Banker's Gold. As far as how well he can handle 10 furlongs, I'm not sure. Harlan's Holiday, as I recall, was built for it. How well he did with it I don't really remember, but I remember him being a really beautiful, well-built racer. This is also a pedidgree with very little inbreeding, and interestingly, the inbreeding is entirely on the dam's side. The dam is inbred 4x4 to Raise a Native, so it makes this horse inbred 5x5 to that same stallion. That's the only inbreeding. This is a pretty blue-collar pedigree, but it could work out in their favor. I don't really think it will, but it could.
9) Overanalyze (b.c. Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Another of Pletcher's five horses (it's just not a Derby without a quarter of the field belonging to Pletcher, I swear. JFC.) and a very... interesting one. I want to dismiss him off the bat as a sprinter, but Dixie Union is not purely a sprinting stallion. Last year, we saw Union Rags hold on for 12 furlongs in a hell of a fight in the Belmont. This race probably is not beyond this horse's scope. It might not be his ideal distance, but I don't think it's too far either. That being said, I don't want him to win, because I want Pletcher to go 0 for 5 again. It's not that I hate Pletcher, I just am tired of him monopolizing things.
10) Palace Malice (b.c. Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Mike Smith
Oh look, it's this year's Sinister Minister. That token horse who will get play because people think his name is clever. Joy. All the same, that's quite a pedigree. I... kind of think that he's on the wrong surace. I could be wrong, but he kind of looks more like a turf horse than a dirt horse. I know he's by Curlin, but Curlin's own pedigree always looked more turf than dirt to me, and the rest of this horse's pedigree is reinforcing that to me. Distance shouldn't be a problem on paper. All the same, I don't really like him. I like Mike Smith, but I don't like this horse, and I'm not a fan of Pletcher, as illustrated above.
11) Lines of Battle (dkb/br.c. War Front - Black Speck, by Arch)
* Trainer: Aidan O'Brien | Jockey: Ryan Moore
Obligatory Tabor entry. They always find their way into this race unless their best horses all drop off the trail due to injury. I don't really know much about this horse. Looks like he won over in Dubai, which I want to say will disqualify him from actually winning, because Dubai is a massive leap from Churchill, but I'm not sure I should write him off for that alone. The pedigree doesn't excite me that much. War Front was a good racehorse, but as a stallion, I'm not sure he can hold up to his sire's legacy. Also, there is some massive inbreeding to Danzig. HOWEVER, it should be noted that Black Speck is out of Andover Way, making her a half-sister to Dynaformer. Dynaformer was a steel-clad horse, and his progeny proved to be very sturdy and durable, and very versatile. (Also, as I recall, Dynaformers tend to be good mudders. Don't know if that came from his sire or dam, though.) This is a pretty potent pedigree. However, I still don't think I like this horse. I'm not a huge fan of the Tabors as a general rule, nor of O'Brien.
12) Itsmyluckyday (dkb/br.c. Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court)
* Trainer: Edward Plesa, Jr. | Jockey: Elvis Trujillo
Hmm, I've heard this name bandied about, sort of just below the radar. Not sure what all he can do, but he's an effective wildcard. His pedigree is intriguing. Lawyer Ron died so young, so we'll never really know what he could do at stud, but Itsmyluckyday, like a couple others in this list, has a pedigree that is remarkably clear of inbreeding. His inbreeding is to Nearctic, which is entirely in his sire's side. In fact, that inbreeding goes back to Lawyer Ron's sire Langfuhr (Langfuhr is inbred 3x3 to Nearctic, making Lawyer Ron inbred 4x4 and thus Itsmyluckyday inbred 5x5). It's a pretty star-studded pedigree once you go a few generationsback, but up close, it's kind of plebian. This colt also has 10 starts on his record, which is significant (he's not the only one, granted, but there are others who have only five) and that isn't a bad thing. This is definitely a horse to watch, if you ask me. His sire handled the distance just fine, his dam was bred to handle 9 to 10 furlongs, and if the race falls apart in front of everyone, this horse may have inherited enough guts from his sire to get the job done.
13) Falling Sky (b.c. Lion Heart - Sea Dragoness, by Sea Hero)
* Trainer: John Terranova | Jockey: Luis Saez
Another "who are you?" for me. Seriously, don't recognize this name. Obviously I have not paid enough attention. I'm not 100% convinced of this horse's pedigree working for this distance. On paper it should be fine, and Lion Heart, as I recall, held on solidly for second against Smarty Jones in 2004, but I'm still not sure about this. You can't inject Derby surprises and distant traces of Seattle Slew and call it good, in my book. I seem to recall Lion Heart capping out at 9 furlongs. He got the 10 furlongs of the Derby on heart alone, as I recall. This pedigree does not look very promising to me. This looks a bit more to me like someone got the chance to go in the Derby and decided to go ahead. A little like Trinniberg last year, except that we know for a fact that Trinniberg is a sprinter. This horse isn't necessarily a sprinter, but 10 furlongs may be out of his comfort zone.
14) Verrazano (b.c. More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Johnny Velasquez
I think this is Pletcher's star here, and I am not impressed. Why am I not impressed? Simple: More Than Ready is a sprinting/mile sire. Even Giant's Causeway underneath cannot overcome the fact that I think 10 furlongs is out of this horse's depth unless he gets really lucky and the race falls apart around him. I could be wrong, of course, but I don't think that he's going to like this race. I think 10 furlongs with 19 other tired horses crushing around him is going to unnerve this horse.
15) Charming Kitten (dkb/br.c. Kitten's Joy - Iteration, by Wild Again)
* Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Jockey: Edgar Prado
We have our first Kitten! The Ramseys amuse the everliving hell out of me with how they're flooding the industry with Kitten's Joy progeny, all named with the word "Kitten" in it. Kitten's Joy was a good horse, I won't say he wasn't, but he was a grass horse. He's also not that great of a stallion. He's okay, and he's probably holding his own thanks to his dedicated fanboy/fangirl combo of Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey. But he's not that good either. This colt has Prado in the irons (I love Prado!) but he is trained by Pletcher (ugh, sorry, not a fan.) I have a feeling that this horse will fade away into the woodwork once the race is over.
16) Orb (b.c. Malibu Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled)
* Trainer: Claude "Shug" McGaughey | Jockey: Joel Rosario
Your morning line favorite and current top earner is this horse, who runs for the same people who owned the incomparable Ruffian four decades ago. I'm surprised, because I figured he'd be a Claiborne horse, given his one-syllable name. He's a Phipps-bred horse too. That's why Shug is there -- where there are Phipps horses, there's Shug McGaughey. I like the pedigree to some degree -- I'm a big fan of Malibu Moon! I'm not a fan of Unbridled, but I can forgive this horse since he's out of a daughter of Unbridled instead of by a son of him. This horse has been getting a lot of attention (hence the morning line favoritism) but I'm not convinced by him either. I'll watch for him, but I have a hunch that he won't be in the winner's circle. Pity, as he has one of the better post draws, as it happens -- 16 is the last one in the main gate, meaning that there's a bit of a gap between post 16 and the auxiliary gate posts starting with 17. It means that Orb won't have horses pressing into him from the right the moment he jumps out of the gate -- he'll have time to get his stride underway before he gets crushed. However, 16 is not a popular winning post either, so he's not exactly on the highway to glory either. He'll have to win this race the hard way.
17) Will Take Charge (ch.c. Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere)
* Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas | Jockey: Jon Court
First of all, 17 is my lucky number. Of course, no one ever wins from this post for me. Of course. Also, I like D. Wayne Lukas. I also loved Take Charge Lady when she was on the track -- a prettier mare you rarely ever saw, and she was gutsy and talented. Also, this little guy is a chestnut (favorite color!) and he has a huge white blaze (I'm a sucker for chrome!). The biggest deterrant for me is his sire. I despise Unbridled's Song, and the last time I rooted for a foal of his in this race, she came in second and then broke down and died. I refuse to Eight Belles this poor guy. I gotta give this colt his due -- he made it to the Derby. That's a rare feat, especially for glass-ankled horses like his sire throws. But I doubt he'll win, because 17 is only ever lucky for me in the worst ways, not for this race, and because he's too fragile to handle it because of his glass-sculpture sire. More's the pity, as he's adorable. I love chestnuts with lots of chrome.
18) Frac Daddy (gr/r.c. Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away)
* Trainer: Ken McPeek | Jockey: Victor Lebron
This colt's sire couldn't have been any more obvious than the Kitten colts' sire would be. The difference is that I dislike Scat Daddy. Mostly because of his name (I don't care if "scat" is a type of vocalization - I will always correlate it to fecal matter, so "Scat Daddy" is no different to me than calling the horse "Poopoo Papa"), but I also felt he was really overrated. I've heard very little about this horse at all, and the pedigree is kind of a question mark to me. I really don't know what Skip Away was like as a stallion or as a broodmare sire, and I'm unimpressed with Scat Daddy, or even Johannesburg. This kind of looks like a middle-of-the-road horse who can grab the Derby roses if the race implode, but could never win on his own merits. I could be wrong, but my gut is dismissing him already.
19) Java's War (b.c. War Pass - Java[GB] by Rainbow Quest)
* Trainer: Ken McPeek | Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Wow, Kenny McPeek's horses are adjacent to each other. Weird. Anyway, another War Pass colt like Revolutionary. He's hung way out in Siberia right now, in the 19 hole. That's a hell of a place. He's got a lot of ground to cover. He's going to have to run more than 10 furlongs to win this one, becaus he's going to have to cut from the 19 path to the rail somehow without losing too much ground in the race. That's a tall order. I know I'll Have Another did it last year, but I don't think this guy's got the pedigree for it, Rainbow Quest be damned. Pity, as I like Leparoux and McPeek. We could see me proven wrong, but I kind of doubt it.
20) Vyjack (b.g. Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky)
* Trainer: Rudy Rodriguez | Jockey: Garret Gomez
Our lone gelding in the field, and he's hung way out in Sibera's outskirts! Poor guy! Another one by Into Mischief, and thus a bit of a mystery to me. However, unlike Goldencents, this horse has a really solid-looking bottom half of his pedigree. Stravinsky, Nureyev, Northern Dancer, Appalachee, Round Table... it looks like a grass horse's baseline to me. Also, there is ZERO inbreeding in five generations. I think this might be the first one (certainly first one I've noticed!) That's pretty rare these days in fashionable pedigrees. I'm going to root for this horse just because he's a gelding (I like geldings) but I'm going to assume that he's not going to have Big Brown's versatility or skill, so he probably won't do well.
AE) Fear the Kitten (b.c. Kitten's Joy - Dynarhythm, by Dynaformer)
* Trainer: Mike Maker | Jockey: Alan Garcia
There's our other Kitten horse, and possibly my favorite for name alone, just because it's such an absurd name! Gottan love the Ramseys, man. Anyway, about the horse. If he draws in, he may get bet down, especially if it rains, since he's got Dynaformer in there, and the Dynaformers are pretty good mudders. Stamina should be no problem, he's got it on both sides of the pedigree to handle the distance. If he fails this race or doesn't draw in, look for him in the Belmont, because this pedigree screams 12 furlongs to me.
So there you have it. My picks are, based on what I want, Mylute and Vyjack. Orb has a shot, but I'm rooting for Vyjack and Mylute.