Kentucky Derby 138
All right, all right, I haven't been around much at all here on LJ, but might as well keep my tradition, since I have been paying some level of attention to the game.
Pity there are no geldings or fillies in this race. They're all colts. And if we're lucky, we'll see maybe half of them again after this race.
Going in order of the post position draw, which means that the 21st horse (the Also Eligible, which is new this year, the first time there has been an Also Eligible for the Derby; it used to be a maximum of 20 horses entered. Only 20 can go in the gates, but if someone scratches now, the A.E. can get in.) also gets mentioned!
1) Daddy Long Legs (ch.c. Scat Daddy - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake)
T: Aiden O'Brien | J: Colm O'Donoghue
I don't know much about this horse. He's been kind of under the radar, only not really, mostly because he's owned by Tabor, Magnier and Smith, etc. These are the same people who spent 16 million dollars for The Green Monkey, back in 2006. Anyway. He's been getting some noise made about him, but I'm not going to hold much hope for him. The rail position is not a very good one for any horse in a 20-horse cavalry stampede. Also, um... he is named after a type of spider. Not sure if I want that on the Derby trophy...
2) Optimizer (b.c. English Channel - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy)
T: D. Wayne Lukas | J: Jon Court
Hello there, Lukas! The racing world will be so very dark and dreary when you're no longer bringing horses to the Triple Crown. Anyway, this horse has a lovely pedigree (kind of a turf pedigree on paper, but... I dunno. Can't say much about the dam, actually...) and he's got a nice strong name. If I were to pick a Derby winner on name alone, it might very well be this one. He's another just-below-the-radar ones. I think he just barely squeaked into the gates due to low graded earnings, which means that there isn't much to judge him on. But never underestimate Lukas. He hasn't been much of a presence in recent years, but it's a bad mistake to ignore him in a big race.
3) Take Charge Indy (dkb/br.c. A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere)
T: Patrick Byrne | J: Calvin Borel
This horse is going to be bet down to close to favorite status by post time, I am guessing, because of his rider. You NEVER want to write off Calvin Borel at Churchill Downs. The horse is bred to route, so he won't have trouble with the distance. Hell, his dam was a hell of a racer in her day (and holy shit was she a looker too! One of my favorites of her era; Take Charge Lady was absolutely gorgeous) and could handle a route of ground easily. However, I don't really think that this horse has the fortitude or constitution to handle the stress of this race. He could do just fine. Or he could completely melt down. I won't toss him -- he has every right to be here, he has earned his place -- but I don't think he'll do much. If he does, I think it'll be more like Mine That Bird, where Borel's brilliance and the luck of the Twin Spires combines to carry him home. I wish him luck, but I don't think Take Charge Indy is going to like this race one bit.
4) Union Rags (b.c. Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West)
T: Michael Matz | J: Julien Leparoux
This horse has been in the spotlight for a long time. He was almost the juvenile champion, to be fair. He's not a hard-luck horse, necessarily, but he's a consistent one. And Michael Matz is not a big-name trainer (though he is well known thanks to Barbaro) but he is a master at what he does too. He's babied this horse along, and I think that if ever Union Rags is going to come into his own in a big way, now is the time. Also, I happen to really like Leparoux. Dunno why, but I just really like the kid, and I know he's a hell of a rider. I think there is some concern about the horse getting the distance, but looking at his pedigree, I think a mile and a quarter isn't beyond him. There's Northern Dancer all over the place there, and Mr Prospector and Secretariat. He might be better at the mile distance, but I don't think that this is too far for him. The Belmont Stakes might be a big further than Union Rags really wants to go, but I don't think that even that distance will really ruin him. All in all, I'd love to see him do this, because he seems to be a special horse, and I'd love to see Michael Matz get a Derby win that isn't spoiled a few weeks later by catastrophic injury (and pray to god that Union Rags doesn't get hurt!)
5) Dullahan (ch.c. Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike)
T: Dale Romans | J: Kent Desormeaux
The only real reason I'd pick this horse, honestly, is his name. I LOVE his name. (Yeah, yeah, I like it because I'm a fan of Golden Sun and Final Fantasy VI. Shove it. :P) I'd also like to see him win just to show that half-brothers can be Derby winners (hey, recognize that dam's name at all? In 2006, she foaled a small, runty little bay colt who was later named Mine That Bird. Guess what Mine That Bird went on to do! Go on, just guess!) That, and I like Dale Romans and Kent Desormeaux. Okay, and I like his blazed-face and the fact that he's a big red chestnut. Anyway. I'd love to see him win, but realistically, I'm not going to really back him. For one thing, he's by a son of Unbridled's Song (ick!) and for another, his pedigree, to me, says "Turf", not dirt. I believe he hasn't won on dirt but unlike Animal Kingdom last year, he has started on it. I don't envision him suddenly taking a liking to Churchill's dirt, but I'll be happy if he does.
6) Bodemeister (b.c. Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat)
T: Bob Baffert | J: Mike Smith
Hoshit look at that pedigree and those connections. The horse's blood is purple, I tell you. The distance will not be a problem at all, and if he's anything like other Empire Maker progeny, he won't be phased by a cavalry stampede either. A lot of people have pointed out something pretty major -- this horse has the Apollo jinx working against him. He didn't race as a two-year-old. However, a lot of "jinxes" in recent years have gone down in flames, so maybe it's time this one got put to rest too? Don't really know. I do know that Baffert is a master at getting horses ready for this race, even if they don't always win. Granted, Baffert is a master at a lot of things in the industry (and I never get tired of seeing him in the news, honestly. I like him. I know some people don't like him, but I think he's very charismatic, and he's a good public figure. I think he's good for the industry as a whole.) Anyway, the fact that the horse didn't race as a two-year-old has to have been on the connections' minds from the outset of the season this year. They know about the Apollo Jinx. This horse is considered the better of Baffert's two entries this year. If that jinx is going to go down, now is the time, I guess. (Incidentally, is this horse named after Bob Baffert's son Bode Baffert? Just curious...)
7) Rousing Sermon (ch.c. Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again)
T: Jerry Hollendorfer | J: Jose Lezcano
I... have no real reason to like this horse, really. He's kind of out of nowhere to me. I had never even heard of him until I saw photos of him online. He's not exactly flashy, but he's a pretty copper color. For some reason, I took a real shine to him. Also, I do like his name. It's clever. I'm not a fan of the Pulpit sireline as a rule (Sorry, Tapit, but no, I don't like you.) but I'm willing to make an exception here. For one thing, there's Awesome Again involved. Either way, this horse I think won't have a problem with the distance. I also happen to like Hollendorfer. Not really sure why, but I do like him. And this horse will be wearing the #7 saddle towel. 7 is one of my lucky numbers. Therefore, because I have no firmer opinion, Rousing Sermon is going to be one of my Derby picks. Why the hell not?
8) Creative Cause (gr/r.c. Giants Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer)
T: Mike Harrington | J: Joel Rosario
I've heard a lot of things about this horse recently. Some good, some bad (among the bad, however, is that the horse doesn't like to be crowded in a race; and in this race, he's going to be crowded unless he wants to run on the lead the entire way, and I don't think that that is his running style.) But regardless, he's an accomplished colt, son of the ever-influential Giants Causeway, and his dam was a major player in her day too. Distance shouldn't be a problem for him. But if he is at all timid, this race will break him. The Derby is not for the faint of heart.
9) Trinniberg (dkb/br.c Teuflesberg - Bella Dorato, by Goldminers Gold)
T: Bisnath Parboo | J: Willie Martinez
This horse is a complete wildcard to me. I have seen his name around a lot, so I'm familiar with him to some degree (though I haven't watched anything with him, so I don't know what he runs like) but his connections are a mystery to me, and his pedigree is a bit iffy to me too. I'm pretty sure that his sire was only effective racing at sprint distances, really. So I'm not sure that this distance is going to work out for him. I also don't know that he's going to be able to handle a crush of 19 other horses around him. But he has earned his way into this race, so who can say what he'll do? On a side note, I love that he trains with a yellow bridle that has a red pompom on it, and his exercise rider likewise has a red pompom on his helmet. I just think it's cute. The horse himself is adorable too.
10) Daddy Nose Best (dkb/br.c. Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch)
T: Steve Asmussen | J: Garrett Gomez
And here we have the first truly dumb name of the entrants. Seriously, what? Why not spell it "Daddy Knows Best"? It's not a clever pun, it's stupid. I'm also not big on Scat Daddy, never have been. Didn't like him when he was racing, don't particularly like him as a stallion. This horse, even more so than the other "Daddy" horse (Daddy Long Legs) has been getting some buzz, as far as I can tell, and Asmussen is certainly no rookie. He handled Curlin and Rachel Alexandra, so he knows his way around spectacular horseflesh. I'm just not convinced that this horse is that kind of horse.
11) Alpha (b.c. Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II)
T: Kiaran McLaughlin | J: Rajiv Maragh
Okay, first things first. Holy SHIT look at that pedigree. I didn't know there were any Nijinsky mares still producing. Next, this horse is a Darley horse. As such, he's going to be high quality, yes, but I don't think we'll see him as a four-year-old, no matter what happens in this race. Between his pedigree and the fact that Darley has a habit of retiring their stars after the 3-year-old season, I'd be surprised if this horse is around at 4. If that's the case, I really don't want him to win this race, because I'm really tired of seeing Derby winners shuffled off to the breeding shed without racing at 4 or older. I understand that breeding is a business, but damn I'm tired of getting attached to a horse and then seeing it get sent off to a life of making babies, far from the track, while bigwigs collect massive paychecks from eager breeders. It isn't FUN for the fan to watch a horse go off to a stud career. ANYWAY. I'm digressing badly. As for this horse himself, I really don't know, but I don't think he has much of a chance anyway. He could, I could be wrong. But somehow I don't think he'll do any better than most Darley horses end up doing in this race.
12) Prospective (dkb/br.c. Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again)
T: Mark Casse | J: Luis Contreras
Another under-the-radar horse, this one is interesting to me because of his pedigree. I love Malibu Moon, and I like Awesome Again as a broodmare sire. He's got a couple other grandsons here in this race, I think, but for some reason, I like this one. Malibu Moon is a good stallion. Maybe not a great one, but a good one. I'd love to see him get a big break here with this horse winning this race. Can't say as I would actually predict it, but it'd be nice.
13) Went the Day Well (b.c. Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow)
T: Graham Motion | J: John Velasquez
I have one major reason to dislike this horse: I can't stand his name. It sounds so utterly pretentious. Who even talks like that, outside of poetry recital? In any case, the horse is getting some buzz because his connections won this race last year with Animal Kingdom, so the fact that they won last year is fresh in bettors' minds. But I don't think that this horse is going to get the break like Animal Kingdom did. I think there are other quality horses in this race who will put him in his place quite firmly. I could be wrong, he could be under wraps, but I'm not going to root for him. Mostly because I hate his name. Sorry, pony, but that name is just... ugh.
14) Hansen (gr/r.c. Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat)
T: Mike Maker | J: Ramon Dominguez
I really want to like this horse. He's gorgeous! He reminds me of Star Over the Bay! And he's been consistently a factor in the division (mostly because he's the Juvenile winner and the champion). I just... can't take the horse seriously because he reminds me of that 1990s band of three brothers. I know he wasn't named for them (he was named after his owner, which isn't really any better, IMHO. Naming your horse after yourself so blatantly? Not what I'd consider humble or cool, sorry.) but still... I hear "Mm Bop" in my head when I read about this horse! While I don't hate the song or the group... I don't want to think about it either. Lovely gray, this horse, but I'm going to look elsewhere.
15) Gemologist (b.c. Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr Prospector)
T: Todd Pletcher | J: Javier Castellano
I don't like Pletcher and I don't like Winstar. I can pretty much guarantee that this horse will be retired to stud before racing as a 4yo, regardless of how he finishes here. There's a lot of hype around him, and he's out of a Mr. P mare. He's got a very nice pedigree, and Winstar isn't ashamed to retire their horses to stud after a good 3yo year. All of this just kills my buzz over this horse, which is a pity, because I like the looks of him.
16) El Padrino (ch.c. Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giants Causeway)
T: Todd Pletcher | J: Rafael Bejarano
Again, Pletcher. I just don't like him. I think he's too stiff. I should add that I think Pletcher is a phenomenal horseman and I respect and admire his achievements. I just don't like him as a public figure of the industry, that's all. But I wouldn't write this horse off just yet, even if I think he's considered the weaker of Pletcher's duo. Admittedly, I'm a sucker for chestnuts with blazes on their faces. But he's not a shy horse, I think he's been in some dogfights (even if he's lost them, as I recall) so I don't think that the Derby will affect him too much. I'm just not sure he's quite up to challenge either. But if the race falls apart, anyone can win it, and Pletcher obviously thinks this horse has something to show, if he's bringing the horse here. If Pletcher is going to win this race, I'd much rather it be this horse than Gemologist.
17) Done Talking (b.c. Broken Vow - Dixie Talking, by Dixieland Band)
T: Hamilton Smith | J: Sheldon Russell
HOLY SHIT. This colt is out of Dixie Talking. Dixie Talking is out of Gin Talking. This is taking me right back to my early days at TBC, where there was the user who went by the username of Gin Talking, in honor of that mare. I vaguely remember following Dixie Talking's early racing career because of the TBC member. I know nothing about this colt's connections, but I'm on the wagon here, because of Gin Talking in the pedigree, and because this colt will be wearing the #17 saddle towel, and 17 is my favorite number. Screw the science of picking a winning horse, this one has my vote all the way across the track.
18) Sabrecat (dkb/br.c. Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner)
T: Steve Asmussen | J: Corey Nakatani
I'm kind of against this horse because I've seen a lot of punters talking him up, saying that he'll be the perfect Derby winner because he's "bred to run all day" and he'll supposedly be a big price. But to be honest, I think that Asmussen's other horse has a better chance than this one. For one thing, this horse is way out in Siberia here, in post 18. And for another, I just hate when people talk about horses winning with big prices. I know that this is a gambling game, but this race is not a race you should expect to win anything on, because it's a race where ANYTHING GOES. You can't predict what's going to happen. In my opinion, picking from your heart is just as likely to get you a winner here as picking a horse at a price. And to be fair, when the field is this large, everyone is going to be a decent price because it's such a crapshoot. But mostly, I just don't like the horse for stupid reasons. I have never liked Bluegrass Cat, I don't like Asmussen, and as much as I like Corey Nakatani, it isn't enough. I'm throwing this horse out because he makes my jaws grind just looking at him on the list. Not even sure how to explain why this happens.
19) I'll Have Another (ch.c. Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch)
T: Doug O'Neill | J: Mario Gutierrez
I actually kind of like this horse, but I think he got screwed with his post position. I don't really have anything else to say about the horse, as I don't really have much to say about his pedigree -- other than I always liked Flower Alley as a racer -- or his connections -- other than I like O'Neil -- and I can't really comment on his races as I haven't watched any. Not huge on his name, it's kind of alcohol-culture to me, but it's not bad like "Went the Day Well" or "Daddy Nose Best" either.
20) Liaison (b.c. Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop)
T: Bob Baffert | J: Martin Garcia
Undisputed as the lesser of Baffert's duo, this horse is doubly screwed because of his post position. Compound that with the fact that he's by a stallion who primarily sired sprinters, and I really get the feeling that this horse is here just because he earned enough to enter and his owner wants to take part in the pagentry. And I can't say as I blame him, since as I recall, he's had bad luck in the past with this race. However, if this horse is a second-stringer for Baffert, then I really don't think he has much of a chance. He could get lucky and pick up the pieces if everything falls apart around him, so he's not a total write-off, but I don't think that fate is going to be so nice, after handing him the Siberian outpost post position.
AE) My Adonis (b.c. Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality)
T: Kelly Breen | J: Elvis Trujillo
Depending on which gate he'll get put into if he manages to draw in -- basically, if everything shifts over and he ends up in the 20 hole, then he's still screwed six ways to Sunday, IMHO, but if he takes the post position left behind by a horse who scratches, then he might have a better chance -- I want to say that if this horse draws into the race, he's worth a couple of bucks, or even an across-the-board bet, because if he manages to draw into the race, then maybe fate is smiling on him. It's a tall order, but who knows? This race is unpredictable, and he's got a nice pedigree for this race. But if he ends up in the 20 hole regardless of who scratches out, then I'm going to say that he's still screwed and his connections better just enjoy being involved in the race at all and hope that their horse doesn't get hurt.
And there you have it! My picks are:
Done Talking - 17 is my favorite number and holy shit, Gin Talking! Screw everyone else, this colt has me excited again.
Rousing Sermon - 7 is a lucky number for me
Dullahan - Love the name, and I loved his half-brother.
Pity there are no geldings or fillies in this race. They're all colts. And if we're lucky, we'll see maybe half of them again after this race.
Going in order of the post position draw, which means that the 21st horse (the Also Eligible, which is new this year, the first time there has been an Also Eligible for the Derby; it used to be a maximum of 20 horses entered. Only 20 can go in the gates, but if someone scratches now, the A.E. can get in.) also gets mentioned!
1) Daddy Long Legs (ch.c. Scat Daddy - Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake)
T: Aiden O'Brien | J: Colm O'Donoghue
I don't know much about this horse. He's been kind of under the radar, only not really, mostly because he's owned by Tabor, Magnier and Smith, etc. These are the same people who spent 16 million dollars for The Green Monkey, back in 2006. Anyway. He's been getting some noise made about him, but I'm not going to hold much hope for him. The rail position is not a very good one for any horse in a 20-horse cavalry stampede. Also, um... he is named after a type of spider. Not sure if I want that on the Derby trophy...
2) Optimizer (b.c. English Channel - Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy)
T: D. Wayne Lukas | J: Jon Court
Hello there, Lukas! The racing world will be so very dark and dreary when you're no longer bringing horses to the Triple Crown. Anyway, this horse has a lovely pedigree (kind of a turf pedigree on paper, but... I dunno. Can't say much about the dam, actually...) and he's got a nice strong name. If I were to pick a Derby winner on name alone, it might very well be this one. He's another just-below-the-radar ones. I think he just barely squeaked into the gates due to low graded earnings, which means that there isn't much to judge him on. But never underestimate Lukas. He hasn't been much of a presence in recent years, but it's a bad mistake to ignore him in a big race.
3) Take Charge Indy (dkb/br.c. A.P. Indy - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere)
T: Patrick Byrne | J: Calvin Borel
This horse is going to be bet down to close to favorite status by post time, I am guessing, because of his rider. You NEVER want to write off Calvin Borel at Churchill Downs. The horse is bred to route, so he won't have trouble with the distance. Hell, his dam was a hell of a racer in her day (and holy shit was she a looker too! One of my favorites of her era; Take Charge Lady was absolutely gorgeous) and could handle a route of ground easily. However, I don't really think that this horse has the fortitude or constitution to handle the stress of this race. He could do just fine. Or he could completely melt down. I won't toss him -- he has every right to be here, he has earned his place -- but I don't think he'll do much. If he does, I think it'll be more like Mine That Bird, where Borel's brilliance and the luck of the Twin Spires combines to carry him home. I wish him luck, but I don't think Take Charge Indy is going to like this race one bit.
4) Union Rags (b.c. Dixie Union - Tempo, by Gone West)
T: Michael Matz | J: Julien Leparoux
This horse has been in the spotlight for a long time. He was almost the juvenile champion, to be fair. He's not a hard-luck horse, necessarily, but he's a consistent one. And Michael Matz is not a big-name trainer (though he is well known thanks to Barbaro) but he is a master at what he does too. He's babied this horse along, and I think that if ever Union Rags is going to come into his own in a big way, now is the time. Also, I happen to really like Leparoux. Dunno why, but I just really like the kid, and I know he's a hell of a rider. I think there is some concern about the horse getting the distance, but looking at his pedigree, I think a mile and a quarter isn't beyond him. There's Northern Dancer all over the place there, and Mr Prospector and Secretariat. He might be better at the mile distance, but I don't think that this is too far for him. The Belmont Stakes might be a big further than Union Rags really wants to go, but I don't think that even that distance will really ruin him. All in all, I'd love to see him do this, because he seems to be a special horse, and I'd love to see Michael Matz get a Derby win that isn't spoiled a few weeks later by catastrophic injury (and pray to god that Union Rags doesn't get hurt!)
5) Dullahan (ch.c. Even the Score - Mining My Own, by Smart Strike)
T: Dale Romans | J: Kent Desormeaux
The only real reason I'd pick this horse, honestly, is his name. I LOVE his name. (Yeah, yeah, I like it because I'm a fan of Golden Sun and Final Fantasy VI. Shove it. :P) I'd also like to see him win just to show that half-brothers can be Derby winners (hey, recognize that dam's name at all? In 2006, she foaled a small, runty little bay colt who was later named Mine That Bird. Guess what Mine That Bird went on to do! Go on, just guess!) That, and I like Dale Romans and Kent Desormeaux. Okay, and I like his blazed-face and the fact that he's a big red chestnut. Anyway. I'd love to see him win, but realistically, I'm not going to really back him. For one thing, he's by a son of Unbridled's Song (ick!) and for another, his pedigree, to me, says "Turf", not dirt. I believe he hasn't won on dirt but unlike Animal Kingdom last year, he has started on it. I don't envision him suddenly taking a liking to Churchill's dirt, but I'll be happy if he does.
6) Bodemeister (b.c. Empire Maker - Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat)
T: Bob Baffert | J: Mike Smith
Hoshit look at that pedigree and those connections. The horse's blood is purple, I tell you. The distance will not be a problem at all, and if he's anything like other Empire Maker progeny, he won't be phased by a cavalry stampede either. A lot of people have pointed out something pretty major -- this horse has the Apollo jinx working against him. He didn't race as a two-year-old. However, a lot of "jinxes" in recent years have gone down in flames, so maybe it's time this one got put to rest too? Don't really know. I do know that Baffert is a master at getting horses ready for this race, even if they don't always win. Granted, Baffert is a master at a lot of things in the industry (and I never get tired of seeing him in the news, honestly. I like him. I know some people don't like him, but I think he's very charismatic, and he's a good public figure. I think he's good for the industry as a whole.) Anyway, the fact that the horse didn't race as a two-year-old has to have been on the connections' minds from the outset of the season this year. They know about the Apollo Jinx. This horse is considered the better of Baffert's two entries this year. If that jinx is going to go down, now is the time, I guess. (Incidentally, is this horse named after Bob Baffert's son Bode Baffert? Just curious...)
7) Rousing Sermon (ch.c. Lucky Pulpit - Rousing Again, by Awesome Again)
T: Jerry Hollendorfer | J: Jose Lezcano
I... have no real reason to like this horse, really. He's kind of out of nowhere to me. I had never even heard of him until I saw photos of him online. He's not exactly flashy, but he's a pretty copper color. For some reason, I took a real shine to him. Also, I do like his name. It's clever. I'm not a fan of the Pulpit sireline as a rule (Sorry, Tapit, but no, I don't like you.) but I'm willing to make an exception here. For one thing, there's Awesome Again involved. Either way, this horse I think won't have a problem with the distance. I also happen to like Hollendorfer. Not really sure why, but I do like him. And this horse will be wearing the #7 saddle towel. 7 is one of my lucky numbers. Therefore, because I have no firmer opinion, Rousing Sermon is going to be one of my Derby picks. Why the hell not?
8) Creative Cause (gr/r.c. Giants Causeway - Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer)
T: Mike Harrington | J: Joel Rosario
I've heard a lot of things about this horse recently. Some good, some bad (among the bad, however, is that the horse doesn't like to be crowded in a race; and in this race, he's going to be crowded unless he wants to run on the lead the entire way, and I don't think that that is his running style.) But regardless, he's an accomplished colt, son of the ever-influential Giants Causeway, and his dam was a major player in her day too. Distance shouldn't be a problem for him. But if he is at all timid, this race will break him. The Derby is not for the faint of heart.
9) Trinniberg (dkb/br.c Teuflesberg - Bella Dorato, by Goldminers Gold)
T: Bisnath Parboo | J: Willie Martinez
This horse is a complete wildcard to me. I have seen his name around a lot, so I'm familiar with him to some degree (though I haven't watched anything with him, so I don't know what he runs like) but his connections are a mystery to me, and his pedigree is a bit iffy to me too. I'm pretty sure that his sire was only effective racing at sprint distances, really. So I'm not sure that this distance is going to work out for him. I also don't know that he's going to be able to handle a crush of 19 other horses around him. But he has earned his way into this race, so who can say what he'll do? On a side note, I love that he trains with a yellow bridle that has a red pompom on it, and his exercise rider likewise has a red pompom on his helmet. I just think it's cute. The horse himself is adorable too.
10) Daddy Nose Best (dkb/br.c. Scat Daddy - Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch)
T: Steve Asmussen | J: Garrett Gomez
And here we have the first truly dumb name of the entrants. Seriously, what? Why not spell it "Daddy Knows Best"? It's not a clever pun, it's stupid. I'm also not big on Scat Daddy, never have been. Didn't like him when he was racing, don't particularly like him as a stallion. This horse, even more so than the other "Daddy" horse (Daddy Long Legs) has been getting some buzz, as far as I can tell, and Asmussen is certainly no rookie. He handled Curlin and Rachel Alexandra, so he knows his way around spectacular horseflesh. I'm just not convinced that this horse is that kind of horse.
11) Alpha (b.c. Bernardini - Munnaya, by Nijinsky II)
T: Kiaran McLaughlin | J: Rajiv Maragh
Okay, first things first. Holy SHIT look at that pedigree. I didn't know there were any Nijinsky mares still producing. Next, this horse is a Darley horse. As such, he's going to be high quality, yes, but I don't think we'll see him as a four-year-old, no matter what happens in this race. Between his pedigree and the fact that Darley has a habit of retiring their stars after the 3-year-old season, I'd be surprised if this horse is around at 4. If that's the case, I really don't want him to win this race, because I'm really tired of seeing Derby winners shuffled off to the breeding shed without racing at 4 or older. I understand that breeding is a business, but damn I'm tired of getting attached to a horse and then seeing it get sent off to a life of making babies, far from the track, while bigwigs collect massive paychecks from eager breeders. It isn't FUN for the fan to watch a horse go off to a stud career. ANYWAY. I'm digressing badly. As for this horse himself, I really don't know, but I don't think he has much of a chance anyway. He could, I could be wrong. But somehow I don't think he'll do any better than most Darley horses end up doing in this race.
12) Prospective (dkb/br.c. Malibu Moon - Spirited Away, by Awesome Again)
T: Mark Casse | J: Luis Contreras
Another under-the-radar horse, this one is interesting to me because of his pedigree. I love Malibu Moon, and I like Awesome Again as a broodmare sire. He's got a couple other grandsons here in this race, I think, but for some reason, I like this one. Malibu Moon is a good stallion. Maybe not a great one, but a good one. I'd love to see him get a big break here with this horse winning this race. Can't say as I would actually predict it, but it'd be nice.
13) Went the Day Well (b.c. Proud Citizen - Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow)
T: Graham Motion | J: John Velasquez
I have one major reason to dislike this horse: I can't stand his name. It sounds so utterly pretentious. Who even talks like that, outside of poetry recital? In any case, the horse is getting some buzz because his connections won this race last year with Animal Kingdom, so the fact that they won last year is fresh in bettors' minds. But I don't think that this horse is going to get the break like Animal Kingdom did. I think there are other quality horses in this race who will put him in his place quite firmly. I could be wrong, he could be under wraps, but I'm not going to root for him. Mostly because I hate his name. Sorry, pony, but that name is just... ugh.
14) Hansen (gr/r.c. Tapit - Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat)
T: Mike Maker | J: Ramon Dominguez
I really want to like this horse. He's gorgeous! He reminds me of Star Over the Bay! And he's been consistently a factor in the division (mostly because he's the Juvenile winner and the champion). I just... can't take the horse seriously because he reminds me of that 1990s band of three brothers. I know he wasn't named for them (he was named after his owner, which isn't really any better, IMHO. Naming your horse after yourself so blatantly? Not what I'd consider humble or cool, sorry.) but still... I hear "Mm Bop" in my head when I read about this horse! While I don't hate the song or the group... I don't want to think about it either. Lovely gray, this horse, but I'm going to look elsewhere.
15) Gemologist (b.c. Tiznow - Crystal Shard, by Mr Prospector)
T: Todd Pletcher | J: Javier Castellano
I don't like Pletcher and I don't like Winstar. I can pretty much guarantee that this horse will be retired to stud before racing as a 4yo, regardless of how he finishes here. There's a lot of hype around him, and he's out of a Mr. P mare. He's got a very nice pedigree, and Winstar isn't ashamed to retire their horses to stud after a good 3yo year. All of this just kills my buzz over this horse, which is a pity, because I like the looks of him.
16) El Padrino (ch.c. Pulpit - Enchanted Rock, by Giants Causeway)
T: Todd Pletcher | J: Rafael Bejarano
Again, Pletcher. I just don't like him. I think he's too stiff. I should add that I think Pletcher is a phenomenal horseman and I respect and admire his achievements. I just don't like him as a public figure of the industry, that's all. But I wouldn't write this horse off just yet, even if I think he's considered the weaker of Pletcher's duo. Admittedly, I'm a sucker for chestnuts with blazes on their faces. But he's not a shy horse, I think he's been in some dogfights (even if he's lost them, as I recall) so I don't think that the Derby will affect him too much. I'm just not sure he's quite up to challenge either. But if the race falls apart, anyone can win it, and Pletcher obviously thinks this horse has something to show, if he's bringing the horse here. If Pletcher is going to win this race, I'd much rather it be this horse than Gemologist.
17) Done Talking (b.c. Broken Vow - Dixie Talking, by Dixieland Band)
T: Hamilton Smith | J: Sheldon Russell
HOLY SHIT. This colt is out of Dixie Talking. Dixie Talking is out of Gin Talking. This is taking me right back to my early days at TBC, where there was the user who went by the username of Gin Talking, in honor of that mare. I vaguely remember following Dixie Talking's early racing career because of the TBC member. I know nothing about this colt's connections, but I'm on the wagon here, because of Gin Talking in the pedigree, and because this colt will be wearing the #17 saddle towel, and 17 is my favorite number. Screw the science of picking a winning horse, this one has my vote all the way across the track.
18) Sabrecat (dkb/br.c. Bluegrass Cat - Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner)
T: Steve Asmussen | J: Corey Nakatani
I'm kind of against this horse because I've seen a lot of punters talking him up, saying that he'll be the perfect Derby winner because he's "bred to run all day" and he'll supposedly be a big price. But to be honest, I think that Asmussen's other horse has a better chance than this one. For one thing, this horse is way out in Siberia here, in post 18. And for another, I just hate when people talk about horses winning with big prices. I know that this is a gambling game, but this race is not a race you should expect to win anything on, because it's a race where ANYTHING GOES. You can't predict what's going to happen. In my opinion, picking from your heart is just as likely to get you a winner here as picking a horse at a price. And to be fair, when the field is this large, everyone is going to be a decent price because it's such a crapshoot. But mostly, I just don't like the horse for stupid reasons. I have never liked Bluegrass Cat, I don't like Asmussen, and as much as I like Corey Nakatani, it isn't enough. I'm throwing this horse out because he makes my jaws grind just looking at him on the list. Not even sure how to explain why this happens.
19) I'll Have Another (ch.c. Flower Alley - Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch)
T: Doug O'Neill | J: Mario Gutierrez
I actually kind of like this horse, but I think he got screwed with his post position. I don't really have anything else to say about the horse, as I don't really have much to say about his pedigree -- other than I always liked Flower Alley as a racer -- or his connections -- other than I like O'Neil -- and I can't really comment on his races as I haven't watched any. Not huge on his name, it's kind of alcohol-culture to me, but it's not bad like "Went the Day Well" or "Daddy Nose Best" either.
20) Liaison (b.c. Indian Charlie - Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop)
T: Bob Baffert | J: Martin Garcia
Undisputed as the lesser of Baffert's duo, this horse is doubly screwed because of his post position. Compound that with the fact that he's by a stallion who primarily sired sprinters, and I really get the feeling that this horse is here just because he earned enough to enter and his owner wants to take part in the pagentry. And I can't say as I blame him, since as I recall, he's had bad luck in the past with this race. However, if this horse is a second-stringer for Baffert, then I really don't think he has much of a chance. He could get lucky and pick up the pieces if everything falls apart around him, so he's not a total write-off, but I don't think that fate is going to be so nice, after handing him the Siberian outpost post position.
AE) My Adonis (b.c. Pleasantly Perfect - Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality)
T: Kelly Breen | J: Elvis Trujillo
Depending on which gate he'll get put into if he manages to draw in -- basically, if everything shifts over and he ends up in the 20 hole, then he's still screwed six ways to Sunday, IMHO, but if he takes the post position left behind by a horse who scratches, then he might have a better chance -- I want to say that if this horse draws into the race, he's worth a couple of bucks, or even an across-the-board bet, because if he manages to draw into the race, then maybe fate is smiling on him. It's a tall order, but who knows? This race is unpredictable, and he's got a nice pedigree for this race. But if he ends up in the 20 hole regardless of who scratches out, then I'm going to say that he's still screwed and his connections better just enjoy being involved in the race at all and hope that their horse doesn't get hurt.
And there you have it! My picks are:
Done Talking - 17 is my favorite number and holy shit, Gin Talking! Screw everyone else, this colt has me excited again.
Rousing Sermon - 7 is a lucky number for me
Dullahan - Love the name, and I loved his half-brother.