Numbers
While browsing around media and blogs, both in English and Russian, I noticed that the observations about Grozny blasts , evolve around the fact that they came at a particular time, that is in pre-elections period, and that it was a particularly embarassing episode for Kadyrov, given the religious festivities, and the claim he often makes, that Chechnya has become a stable place .
Now, of course he often highlights the results which are there and under the eyes of everybody (infrastructures and villages rebuilt, scholarships for students, and all the services one can give to his people), but he never said that everything is perfect .
And regarding the elections, that is a wide and complicated chapter, which leads to responsibilities at higher levels .
Not that I don't want to touch it, but we are always on the ground of speculations .
Some spectacular action for the festivities (they chose the end of Ramadan, which for them was already Shawwal, because they do not recognise the calendar issued by Chechen religious authorities, but they might as well chosen the former president birthday anniversary)had to be expected but impossible to predict with accuracy .
Chechnya may not be stable at the present time, but not even as unstable as claimed by media .
I took time to check extremists websites, in order to verify if the number of attack has increased (for sure they are inflated, but are useful to have a general idea) and interestingly, at least in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Kabardino balkaria, it has not :
Dec 2010
Wilayah Nokhchicho:
Number of operations - 5
killed - 2 injured - 5 dead terrorists 0
Wilayah Ghalghaycho:
Number of operations - 9
killed - 2 injured - 3 dead terrorists -4
Wilayah Dagestan:
Number of operations - 24
killed - 10 injured - 15 dead terrorists -14
United Wilayah of Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay:
Number of operations - 10
killed - 14 injured - 4 dead terrorists -0
General statistics
Total of operations - 48
Total killed - 27 Total injured - 29 Total terrorists dead - 18
July 2011 Wilayah Nokhchicho:
Number of operations - 7
Total killed - 20 Total injured - 0 Total terrorists dead - 0
Wilayah Ghalghaycho:
Number of operations - 13
Total killed - 3 Total injured - 12 Total terrorists dead - 0
Wilayah Dagestan:
Number of operations - 41
killed - 22 injured - 36 Total terrorists dead - 8
United Wilayah of Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay:
Number of operations - 6
killed - 4 injured - 0 Total terrorists dead - 0
General statistics
Total of the operations - 67
Total killed - 37 Total injured - 68 Total dead terrorists - 9
August 2011 Wilayah Nokhchicho:
Number of operations - 4
killed - 0 injured - 3 Total terrorists dead - 0
Wilayah Ghalghaycho:
Number of operations - 16
killed - 16 injured - 11 Total terrorists dead - 1
Wilayah Dagestan:
Number of operations - 60
killed - 30 injured - 58 Total terrorists dead - 13
General statistics
Total of the operations - 93
killed - 49 injured - 71 Total terrorists dead - 16
The real problem is Daghestan, which has a periodically increasing number of attacks and terrorists involved .
So saying that Grozny attacks were embarassing for the leadership, might be journalistically effective but misleading .
What happened was sadly in line with the yearly statistics .
But if crossed with the number of operations run by Chechen police and FSB, that might be interpreted as a positive result, for now .
Now, of course he often highlights the results which are there and under the eyes of everybody (infrastructures and villages rebuilt, scholarships for students, and all the services one can give to his people), but he never said that everything is perfect .
And regarding the elections, that is a wide and complicated chapter, which leads to responsibilities at higher levels .
Not that I don't want to touch it, but we are always on the ground of speculations .
Some spectacular action for the festivities (they chose the end of Ramadan, which for them was already Shawwal, because they do not recognise the calendar issued by Chechen religious authorities, but they might as well chosen the former president birthday anniversary)had to be expected but impossible to predict with accuracy .
Chechnya may not be stable at the present time, but not even as unstable as claimed by media .
I took time to check extremists websites, in order to verify if the number of attack has increased (for sure they are inflated, but are useful to have a general idea) and interestingly, at least in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Kabardino balkaria, it has not :
Dec 2010
Wilayah Nokhchicho:
Number of operations - 5
killed - 2 injured - 5 dead terrorists 0
Wilayah Ghalghaycho:
Number of operations - 9
killed - 2 injured - 3 dead terrorists -4
Wilayah Dagestan:
Number of operations - 24
killed - 10 injured - 15 dead terrorists -14
United Wilayah of Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay:
Number of operations - 10
killed - 14 injured - 4 dead terrorists -0
General statistics
Total of operations - 48
Total killed - 27 Total injured - 29 Total terrorists dead - 18
July 2011 Wilayah Nokhchicho:
Number of operations - 7
Total killed - 20 Total injured - 0 Total terrorists dead - 0
Wilayah Ghalghaycho:
Number of operations - 13
Total killed - 3 Total injured - 12 Total terrorists dead - 0
Wilayah Dagestan:
Number of operations - 41
killed - 22 injured - 36 Total terrorists dead - 8
United Wilayah of Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay:
Number of operations - 6
killed - 4 injured - 0 Total terrorists dead - 0
General statistics
Total of the operations - 67
Total killed - 37 Total injured - 68 Total dead terrorists - 9
August 2011 Wilayah Nokhchicho:
Number of operations - 4
killed - 0 injured - 3 Total terrorists dead - 0
Wilayah Ghalghaycho:
Number of operations - 16
killed - 16 injured - 11 Total terrorists dead - 1
Wilayah Dagestan:
Number of operations - 60
killed - 30 injured - 58 Total terrorists dead - 13
General statistics
Total of the operations - 93
killed - 49 injured - 71 Total terrorists dead - 16
The real problem is Daghestan, which has a periodically increasing number of attacks and terrorists involved .
So saying that Grozny attacks were embarassing for the leadership, might be journalistically effective but misleading .
What happened was sadly in line with the yearly statistics .
But if crossed with the number of operations run by Chechen police and FSB, that might be interpreted as a positive result, for now .