The election trail: Part II

[backguy]

It had been my intention to regularly update my LJ with frequent updates . However, it has been a relatively boring campaign, so I don't feel like there has been much of substance to post about. [ Part I]

That said, here are my viewpoints on how I see the election shaping up:

• Greens - The Greens have had some great breakthroughs in this campaign. They are polling in the double-digits - ahead of the Bloc. Elizabeth May made it into the debates. They are getting great coverage in the news. They have moved from being a fringe party into a mainstream force to be reckoned with.
  
  May's performance in the French debate was much better than I had expected. I didn't know that she spoke a lick of French; she did okay speaking French and managed to get involved in the debate, especially on the issue of (surprise, surprise) the environment. However, a little tip to May - when talking about the province of Quebec, it's "au Québec", not "à Québec"; the latter refers to Quebec City. In any case, I was impressed by her inaugural debate performance.
  
  However, given how spread out the Greens' support is across Canada, they probably won't pick up more than a handful of seats, though I think they stand to win at least one or two. Their best chances are in Vancouver with incumbent Blair Wilson and in Nova Scotia with May. In May's riding (which is currently held by popular Conservative Peter MacKay) in the 2006 election the NDP and the Grits took 33% and 25% of the vote, respectively. The Tories took 41%, so if the Liberals (who don't have a candidate running in the riding) and the NDP shift their support to the Greens, she just might take the riding. Might.
  
  I'd love to see May standing up in Parliament this fall. She would bring a fresh voice to the house floor.
• Liberals - Back in the 1990's, the Grits were doing great - Jean Chrétien had his trusted companions around him - Martin, Copps, Tobin, Manley, et al. The Liberals led three strong governments, eliminated the federal deficit, and set the country on a solid financial footing. Then Chrétien retired and Martin took over and the Liberals started to lose support. Following Martin's defeat, the Liberals gave the Conservatives the best early Christmas present a Tory could hope for - electing Stéphane Dion as their new leader.
  
  Dion did a great job in the French debate, which points to his biggest problem - his inability to communicate in English. He is very articulate and powerful when speaking in French, but he comes across as a bit goofy in English. I have new respect for him now after having watched the French debate, but I'm not sure that English Canadians can identify with him. (To be fair, many Canadians also can't identify with Stephen Harper, though for different reasons.) The Liberals are doing better than I had expected, but their support is weaker than it has been in long time.
  
  Congratulations to either Michael Ignatieff or Bob Rae as they ascend the throne of the Liberal Party of Canada in 2009.
• Bloc Québecois - I haven't seen much coverage of them in the media. They are polling in fifth place after the Greens. A lot of their support seems to be shifting to the Tories, NDP, and Liberals.
  
  Gilles Duceppe is the most experienced federal party leader and has a strong connection with Quebeckers, so maybe that will be enough for him to hold onto his support in Quebec. However, with sovereignty being on the back-burner and the Tories having introduced a motion in 2006 to recognise the Québécois people as "a nation within a united Canada", Quebeckers have less and less reason to support the Bloc. The best that the Block can do is to hold onto their current seat count.
• Conservatives - Seriously? A pooping puffin? How did you let that happen? Actually, the puffin incident highlights what I consider to be the Conservatives' biggest flaw - knowing what to say and do. With Stephen Harper having kept his caucus on a four-centimetre leash during the last parliament, most of his MP's have no idea of how to answer questions or handle PR. There have been far too many campaign flaws, ranging from listeriosis jokes to defecating birds.
  
  During the French debate, Harper was on the defensive (as is Canadian tradition - focus your energy on going after the incumbent prime minister), and even though his French is the second-weakest of the five leaders, he did well in deflecting criticism and toeing the party line. However, his performance was literally devoid of surprises, and I doubt many Quebeckers were won over to the Conservatives through the debate.
  
  Unless something disastrous happens in the next thirteen days, the Conservatives can start counting their eggs. The choice between a Conservative majority or minority depends solely on the left-wing vote: if they vote strategically, then they can keep the Conservatives to a minority; if they split the vote (like the Canadian Alliance and PC's did in 2000), then the Conservatives will be handed a majority.
  
  Am I the only one who finds Harper wearing a sweater over his shoulders a little bit weird?
• NDP - Apart from a handful of candidates with sordid pasts, the NDP campaign has been nothing short of stellar. This is the first campaign in which the NDP has had the financial resources to compete with the big boys, and so far they have done a great job.
  
  With so much talk about the environment from both the Liberals and the Greens, Jack Layton is downplaying the green card and focusing more on the economy, Harper's leadership, and kitchen table issues. The strategy seems to be working - while the other parties spar over the environment, Layton can lay out his plan for Canada and contrast it against Harper's.
  
  Layton is billing himself as prime minister material, and although he won't admit that he has a slim chance of winning, he's still doing a good job of convincing Canadians to vote for him. He's only trailing the Liberals in the polls by six points, so they are poised to make some gains at the Liberals' expense.
  
  Given Canada's first-past-the-post system, there's a good chance that the NDP will end up narrowly losing many of their seats to the Tories or Grits and not have representation in the house that is proportional to their popular support. That said, unless the Greens split the left-of-centre vote, this election can only improve the NDP's standing in the house.