The election trail: Part I
So after much rumouring and murmuring, the countdown to the election has finally begun. As someone who can't get enough of Canadian federal politics, I will be following the race quite closely and trying to predict what the start of the 40th Canadian Parliament will look like.
Each leader has started their campaign off in their own way:
Each leader has started their campaign off in their own way:
- Trying to get away from being known as the leader who is roughly as charismatic as a pet rock, the incumbent prime minster, Stephen Harper, has launched a campaign of warm, fuzzy, feel-good, Mr. Rogers-esque television ads featuring him wearing a sweater and talking about his family. Since the Conservatives were sometimes dubbed as being too right-wing or radical in the previous election, the ads are trying to portray the party as a family-friendly, hometown values kind of party.
On the campaign trail, Harper has been touting his party's strength in leadership and its ability to lead the country - having someone at the helm who can make tough choices and steer Canada through economic uncertainty. We'll have to wait a few days in order to see what their new campaign promises are and how they will try to build on their previous successes. Their biggest challenge in the previous election was convincing Canadians that the Conservatives could lead the country; now their challenge is to prove that they can be trusted to lead it with a majority. - After a weak start in 2006 and 2007, Stéphane Dion has come a long way. He improved his appearance by buying new glasses, which gives more definition to his face. He became more vocal in his criticisms of the Conservative Party. In the last two days, he has been defending his character and his ability to lead, trying to counter the Conservatives' attack ads. He proudly calls himself an underdog, and he hopes to surprise everyone by pulling off a win in this campaign.
His biggest failing has been trying to sell his Green Shift platform to Canadians. Although the premise is fairly simple (income tax cuts that are paid for by higher taxes on products and services that harm the environment), it seems that the idea hasn't quite caught on yet. The environment is among Dion's top priorities (and good on him for bringing the issue to the forefront), but one-trick ponies often don't fare well in politics, so he'll need to introduce other planks to his platform to help Canadians warm up to the post-Martin, post-Chrétien Liberal Party.
One thing is quite clear: if Dion can't lead the Liberals to victory (or at least to stronger representation in the House of Commons), then he will become the second non-interim Liberal leader to not become prime minister. - Of the three parties represented in all provinces, the NDP's Jack Layton probably has the largest fanbase. There are many people across the country who love the NDP orange and Layton's awesome moustache. And that's just the problem - they're spread out across the country and have a tough time electing a substantial number of NDP MP's. Their support in some areas has traditionally been thin, at best. The NDP won a seat in Quebec in the a by-election last September, which might indicate the possibility of a few more seats from French Canada, though it would be a total surprise if they won more than 3 or 4 there.
However, the NDP has realised how it can become more successful - instead of billing itself as the best way to provide balance to the government, it is now claiming that it should form the government. At his campaign launch in Gatineau, Layton was very clear that he wants to live at 24 Sussex Drive and lead the country in a new direction. (This may pay off by attracting some Liberals who may feel unsure about their party's rocky state.) He has also made the wise choice of directing most of his attacks at the Conservatives - by not attacking the Liberals and the Bloc, he can try to bring down the support of Stephen Harper and bill himself as a serious contender for prime minister.
Although at this point in the campaign it looks unlikely that he will take first place, if he plays his cards right, he can take away a lot of seats from the Liberals and increase the NDP's representation in the House of Common, provided that the Green Party doesn't take away too many votes. - I'm not sure of how much there is to say about the Gilles Duceppe. Support for sovereignty has been waning in recent years, and even in Quebec's National Assembly the Parti Québécois has fewer than 30% of the seats. Duceppe has shifted his strategy from focusing on sovereignty to billing his party as the only one that can defend the interests of Quebec. However, given that it is mathematically impossible for the Bloc to form the government (and unlikely, at best, to form the official opposition again), many former bloquistes may be looking to pledge their vote to a party who has a chance of forming the government.
If the Conservatives decide to play up the provincial autonomy card, they could very well increase their seat count in Quebec. Duceppe needs to focus his attention on the Conservatives if they want to hold onto their seats in the House of Commons. - Even though the Greens have one MP in the House, Elizabeth May is trying to lead her party to win its first elected seat. With popular support for party consistently polling in the 6-10% range since the last election, it has a good chance of winning at least one or two seats in key, left-leaning ridings.
The party has two big challenges ahead of it. First, it needs to be included in the television debates (which will likely only happen through a court order), which would give it broad, national visibility.
Second, May needs to fight hard to win her seat. She is up against the ever-popular Peter Mackay; the seat is a Conservative stronghold - it was once held by former prime minister Brian Mulroney. Without a seat in the House, it's hard to speak up and represent the party's interests.