The election trail: Part III

[backguy]

So, here we are on the eve of the election. My observations over the past eleven days:

• Liberals - Talk about a makeover. In the media coverage in the past two weeks (with one exception last week on ATV), Stéphane Dion is becoming sharper and more articulate, and his attacks on the Tories have become very pointed (and accurate). He is looking increasingly like someone who is on top of things and can rally people together.
  
  The team approach his been a big help - bringing in former prime ministers Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin reminds Canadians of the good old days* of the 1990's and early 2000's; having former leadership rivals Michael Ignatieff and Bob Rae shows that there is some solidarity in the party. Dion seems to be connecting with Canadians and getting out his message about the Grits' vision for Canada, versus the Conservatives'.
  
  His best move of the campaign was blindsiding the other four leaders during the French-language political debate (and repeating it the following night) by introducing his thirty-day plan to help the economy. Most of his plan is just to meet with various leaders and promising to get to the root of the issue, but at least he had a plan, in contrast to the Conservatives.
• Conservatives - Stephen Harper's performance in English-language debate wasn't bad - he survived being attacked from four sides and emerged without losing much ground; however, the party leaders highlighted two major flaws with his campaign: the lack of a platform, and the lack of a plan to weather the economic flux.
  
  Harper has been warmer with the media compared to most of his time in office (which, in reality, is still kind of cold). His party finally released their platform last week, which mostly promised to "stay the course", as it were. The idea of releasing the Tory platform late in the campaign to garner more media attention didn't seem to do well, since there wasn't much to write home about in it. Perhaps Harper should have brought out his platform from under the sweater earlier in the campaign.
  
  Two things will cost Harper a majority: arts funding and the economy. His cuts to the arts just before the election call have not been popular in Quebec, and not winning precious seats from the Bloc or the Grits will hurt his party's standing. However, support for the Tories is strong in the polls, so his party will likely win a plurality, though without the strong support in Quebec that he had been banking on.
  
  The timing of the economic slowdown was unexpected, and had Harper known that there was going to be this kind of crisis in the world, he probably would have waited a bit longer until there was more certainty in the world and better issues to focus on. His laissez-faire approach to the economic situation has turned away some would-be voters.
• NDP - Jack Layton was doing so well during the third and second weeks of the campaign - at one point, orange was trailing red by just four points. However, after the end of the debates, Dion seemed to have won back some support from left-wing voters who were leaning toward the Green or NDP. Perhaps the one mistake the NDP made was coming out of the gate too strong at the start of the campaign and not having any tricks up their rolled-up blue-collar shirt sleeves for later.
  
  As much as I like Jack Layton, I never want to hear the phrases "boardroom table", "kitchen table", and "cabinet table" in the same sentence again. Regardless, his party is hoping for their best result in the house since the days of Ed Broadbent, and that's definitely possible, as long as their support is concentrated in fewer ridings, rather than being spread evenly across English Canada.
• Bloc - Perhaps the biggest benefit to the Bloc has been the Conservatives' cuts to culture just before the election. At the start of the election, they were starting to pick up a label of being "irrelevant" or "out-of-touch"; at this point in the campaign, Gilles Duceppe seems to have connected with voters and have presented a case for why he deserves their vote.
  
  I heard a good point raised on CBC - this is the first time that the Bloc is running on a platform not predicated upon separation or a political scandal. This election is a test to see if their Quebeckers truly support them (instead of just casting a protest vote) and how many real bloquistes there are in the province.
• Greens - Elizabeth May even being in the debate is an accomplishment for their party. She did well in the debate and didn't spare making potshots at Harper, though she should not have interrupted the other leaders as much as she did. May is the first leader of the party who has connected with Canadians, and she seems to be getting the party's message out.
  
  However, many left-wingers who might consider voting for the Greens may consider voting NDP or Liberal in the hope of keeping the Tories at bay. If May can unseat Peter MacKay in Central Nova and get at least one other MP elected to Parliament, that will be a victory in and of itself.

I will be watching the election coverage tomorrow - it should be a good show!

*For the record, my good old days don't include Martin as PM.