ESC 2009 ranking: the final guess

[awendala]

The ESC final day is here! And it's really-really hard to predict what will happen. Mostly the right songs got the final places and the average quality is very good. It's gonna be really exciting! (The 2nd semi results were already too exciting - Greece and Norway mentioned last, phiuh!) Here is some kind of a list of what would happen if I could

Comments

[awendala]

Haa! Eurovision.tv tells us the results of jury voting:

1. Norway (312 points)
2. Iceland (260 points)
3. United Kingdom (223 points)
4. France (164 points)
5. Estonia (124 points)
6. Denmark (120 points)
7. Turkey (114 points)
8. Azerbaijan (112 points)
9. Israel (107 points)
10. Greece (93 points)
11. Moldova (93 points)
12. Bosnia & Herzegovina (90 points)
13. Malta (87 points)
14. Germany (73 points)
15. Armenia (71 points)
16. Ukraine (68 points)
17. Russia (67 points)
18. Portugal (64 points)
19. Croatia (58 points)
20. Lithuania (31 points)
21. Romania (31 points)
22. Sweden (27 points)
23. Albania (26 points)
24. Finland (12 points)
25. Spain (9 points)

It looks like this would have been the result, if every country had had only jurys and they would have given the same 12p-1p as were given on real voting. Jury votes were 50% of the real votes. Can anyone count the public votes with this information??? (Of course we're not interested in jury votes but the public votes as pubic votes would have been the real votes with the old system.)

[awendala]

Ok, I try... I did some calculations (as I don't seem to have better things to do :P).

Almost the public result = (Real points - jury points) + real points

This doesn't give the correct answer, but it takes the real results towards the direction of public votes as much as the jury votes differ from the real results. Got it? (I'm really bad in maths, this is just my logic...)

And the "Almost Public Voting Result" is this:

1. Norway 462 (387+75)
2. Azerbaijan 302 (207+95)
3. Turkey 240 (177+63)
4. Iceland 176 (218-42)
5. Greece 147 (120+27)
6. Estonia 134 (129+5)
7. UK 123 (173-50)
8. Bosnia&Herzegovina 122 (106+16)
9. Russia 115 (91+24)
10. Armenia 113 (92+21)
11. Ukraine 84 (76+8)
12. Albania 70 (48+22)
13. France 50 (107-57)
14. Portugal 50 (57-7)
15. Romania 49 (40+9)
16. Moldova 45 (69-24)
17. Sweden 39 (33+6)
18. Spain 37 (23+14)
19. Croatia 32 (45-13)
20. Finland 32 (22+10)
21. Denmark 28 (74-46)
22. Lithuania 15 (23-8)
23. Israel -1 (53-54)
24. Germany -3 (35-38)
25. Malta -25 (31-56)

It's probably somehow scewed, as three countries got minus points and Norway's victory was even more huge. :D Anyway, that's the public vote direction, maybe.

[awendala]

Correction: Norway's victory was a bit smaller. Went from 169 points to 160 points. Me and my bad maths. :D