I Principi Di Persia

[_fustian]

Current Music: In the Nursery -- Motive

Is it possible the Eschatonicans have decided that, with the Olympics fully occupying the Chinese, a little strategic misdirection could tempt the Russians into a border war, opening a giant attention gap through which they might finally attack Iran? After all, with a lame duck candidate, an economy under

Comments

[angriest]

I don't think it's about Iran. I think it's about old-style Imperialism and Georgian oil and gas pipelines.

[_fustian]

I think it's about old-style Imperialism and Georgian oil and gas pipelines.

Are you suggesting that the US are supporting the Georgians' "territorial integrity" to protect the BTC pipeline (which, after all, doesn't run through South Ossetia), or that the Russians are intending to annex the country in order to capture it?

[angriest]

I think there is a chance that "liberating" South Ossetia is an excuse for Russia to re-annex Georgia and secure the pipeline, and that the USA doesn't want that to happen.

I am also terrified of John McCain, who was apparently on the phone threatening the Russians before Bush was.

[_fustian]

I think there is a chance that "liberating" South Ossetia is an excuse for Russia to re-annex Georgia and secure the pipeline

While it's certainly possible (as this article maintains) that Russian masquerading as South Ossetians, or South Ossetians acting as proxies for the Russians were behind the outbreak of violence at the beginning of the month, the Russian motivation is far more simply explained by their fervent desire to keep Georgia out of NATO than it is by either blatant expansionism or a desire to control the BTC pipeline.

[huckle]

I must say with all the ham fisted anti-Iranian stuff that has been drip fed through the media for the last year, I have been wondering what is taking them so long. I do wish they wouldn't bother with the pathetic rationale that noone believes. Just admit it: we use the oil. They have the oil.

[_fustian]

Just admit it: we use the oil. They have the oil.

This can't simply be about control of the oil supply. No conceivable war against Iran will improve the flow of oil to the US in the short or even medium term. If we leave aside the possibility that they really are attempting to Summon the Messiah, this has to be about the balance of power in the region and the defense of Israel first and foremost. I'm sure that the Israeli hawks and their allies are just as aware as the rest of the world that Iran is years away from a bomb, but this may be the last chance for some time for those who feel they can't possibly allow the rise of a nuclear Iran to make their move.

[angriest]

What is the actual honest-to-god likelihood of Iran using a nuclear weapon? I mean, I don't want them to develop nuclear weapons because I don't want *anyone* to have them. But if they *did* have them, what are the odds one would actually get used?

[_fustian]

What is the actual honest-to-god likelihood of Iran using a nuclear weapon?

Far less than the likelihood of the US or Israel. Certain commentators would like everyone to believe the Iranians are ferociously anti-semitic would-be martyrs, but in reality an Iranian nuke would simply be about shoring up their sphere of influence. I suspect that, behind a nuclear shield, Iran would in fact accelerate towards moderation and modernisation.