I Principi Di Persia

[_fustian]

Current Music: In the Nursery -- Motive

Is it possible the Eschatonicans have decided that, with the Olympics fully occupying the Chinese, a little strategic misdirection could tempt the Russians into a border war, opening a giant attention gap through which they might finally attack Iran? After all, with a lame duck candidate, an economy under

Comments

[angriest]

I don't think it's about Iran. I think it's about old-style Imperialism and Georgian oil and gas pipelines.

[_fustian]

I think it's about old-style Imperialism and Georgian oil and gas pipelines.

Are you suggesting that the US are supporting the Georgians' "territorial integrity" to protect the BTC pipeline (which, after all, doesn't run through South Ossetia), or that the Russians are intending to annex the country in order to capture it?

[angriest]

I think there is a chance that "liberating" South Ossetia is an excuse for Russia to re-annex Georgia and secure the pipeline, and that the USA doesn't want that to happen.

I am also terrified of John McCain, who was apparently on the phone threatening the Russians before Bush was.

[_fustian]

I think there is a chance that "liberating" South Ossetia is an excuse for Russia to re-annex Georgia and secure the pipeline

While it's certainly possible (as this article maintains) that Russian masquerading as South Ossetians, or South Ossetians acting as proxies for the Russians were behind the outbreak of violence at the beginning of the month, the Russian motivation is far more simply explained by their fervent desire to keep Georgia out of NATO than it is by either blatant expansionism or a desire to control the BTC pipeline.

[angriest]

Well I certainly haven't been buying the expansionism argument. That's a very 20th century argument for a 21st century world.

[_fustian]

Well I certainly haven't been buying the expansionism argument.

Nevertheless, given the pipeline runs through Tablisi, not a lot short of a 1968-style takeover (or perhaps ongoing bombings of pumping stations, which would be equally unsaleable) is likely to effect control of the resource flow.

Sure, it's tempting to see this as a "chokepoint" action, but when you do the strategic sums, it doesn't add up.