I Principi Di Persia

[_fustian]

Current Music: In the Nursery -- Motive

Is it possible the Eschatonicans have decided that, with the Olympics fully occupying the Chinese, a little strategic misdirection could tempt the Russians into a border war, opening a giant attention gap through which they might finally attack Iran? After all, with a lame duck candidate, an economy under

Comments

[huckle]

I must say with all the ham fisted anti-Iranian stuff that has been drip fed through the media for the last year, I have been wondering what is taking them so long. I do wish they wouldn't bother with the pathetic rationale that noone believes. Just admit it: we use the oil. They have the oil.

[_fustian]

Just admit it: we use the oil. They have the oil.

This can't simply be about control of the oil supply. No conceivable war against Iran will improve the flow of oil to the US in the short or even medium term. If we leave aside the possibility that they really are attempting to Summon the Messiah, this has to be about the balance of power in the region and the defense of Israel first and foremost. I'm sure that the Israeli hawks and their allies are just as aware as the rest of the world that Iran is years away from a bomb, but this may be the last chance for some time for those who feel they can't possibly allow the rise of a nuclear Iran to make their move.

[angriest]

What is the actual honest-to-god likelihood of Iran using a nuclear weapon? I mean, I don't want them to develop nuclear weapons because I don't want *anyone* to have them. But if they *did* have them, what are the odds one would actually get used?

[_fustian]

What is the actual honest-to-god likelihood of Iran using a nuclear weapon?

Far less than the likelihood of the US or Israel. Certain commentators would like everyone to believe the Iranians are ferociously anti-semitic would-be martyrs, but in reality an Iranian nuke would simply be about shoring up their sphere of influence. I suspect that, behind a nuclear shield, Iran would in fact accelerate towards moderation and modernisation.

[angriest]

The push for modernisation is already happening. I've been arguing for years that the quickest way for America to bring Iran closer to the West would be to do nothing but supply them with an endless supply of contraband Levi's jeans and copies of Eminem's Greatest Hits.

[_fustian]

The push for modernisation is already happening.

Indeed, particularly given Iran's demographic skew towards youth. And there's nothing more likely to derail it than open conflict with the West. Which leads me back to my conspiracist opening; I mean, surely the neocons realise what attacking Iran will mean?