The Drake-Astrobean Equation for Asexuals
The Drake-Astrobean equation for Asexuals
by: 3SigmaAnomaly
For those that don't know, the Drake equation is an expression used in astronomy to estimate the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. If you knew the values of all the variables, then you'd be able to determine the probability of communicating with an alien civilization. It is affected by factors like how many stars are in the Galaxy, how many of those stars have planets, how many planets are habitable, how long a civilization would last, etc.
At times, I feel like an alien in this world, and I ask the question: am I alone in the Universe? What is the probability of meeting another aromantic asexual... someone like me? This is my Drake-Astrobean equation for asexuality. (Don't worry, I explain all my math with words.)
N= R*fc*fp*fa*fo*L
The factors in the Drake-Astrobean equation are:
N = The number of aromantic asexuals I will eventually meet and come out to
R = The rate at which I meet people (in the general population, without the aid of the internet to focus my search)
fc = The fraction of people that I encounter that I would reveal my sexuality to
fp = The fraction of people in the general population that identify as asexual
fa = The fraction of asexuals that identify as aromantic
fo = The probability that an asexual is out to him/herself and would reveal his/her sexuality to me
L = The "lifetime" of my search
There are other factors, but let's start here.
R: How do we estimate the rate at which we meet people? The internet is full of suggestions. E.g., some websites estimate a person will have met 20,000-100,000 people by the age of 90. Some people estimate that people ages 20-40 (not including sales people and hospital staff) will encounter 2-3 new people per day, or around 1000 per year. I don't think I encounter 1000 people per year, but it's a nice round number, and given the other generalizations I'll be making, it's not going to skew results too much.
R = 1000 people/year
fc: Let's consider intimacy. Of all the people you encounter, how many do you open yourself up to enough that you would even discuss sexuality.
Let's say that any given month, there may be one you will open up to and try to be close to. That's 12 new people every year that get subjected to the test of friendship. This isn't all those that pass the test, just the number that you feed tidbits to, and make decisions based on how they respond. Maybe your number is higher than mine. How many new people do you give the opportunity to learn something about you that few others know?
fc=0.012
fp: I've seen all over the internet that "up to 1% of people identifies as asexual." The number is based on an old survey done ages ago. It might be an overestimate. But it might just feel that way, because of all the other factors we're seeing here. Because this survey specifies that those involve experience no sexual attraction, we are not considering demisexuals and gray-asexuals as part of this 1%. (Though those distinctions should be considered, and the value of fp could be significantly smaller for those groups. Demisexuals and gray-A's feel like they're worlds away from me in the spectrum.)
fp=0.01
fa: Okay, so suppose I meet someone, and they say they're asexual too. Yay! But are they really like me? What is their romantic orientation? According to an anonymous poll posted on AVEN where 277 members have voted, the results currently stand as:
Aromantic: 32%, fa=0.32
Romantic: 45%, fa=0.45
Demiromantic: 14%, fa=0.14
Unsure: 9%, fa=0.09
We're not even looking into whether you're hetero, homo, bi, pan, etc. I'm going by the assumption that love is love, and if you meet someone who loves like you, the gender identity of the person or that person's partner (or partners or utter lack of partners) is irrelevant.
For me, fa=0.32
fo: I did not identify as asexual until recently. Some people discover it at a younger age. Some people never accept it as an identity. If you had encountered me five years ago, I would not have identified myself as asexual. I was exposed to a lot more people in my high school and college years, in the years I attended church, and when I was just starting out in the work force. The number of people I encounter has decreased significantly, and the chance to connect with those people over the common struggle of asexuality has been lost.
Also, the asexuals that I may have encountered prior to now may not have come out to themselves until after I had
already met them and parted ways, and I will never know that they are asexual. How many asexuals out there aren't out to themselves?
These kinds of things, I don't even know how to put a number on, but we're considering people we meet between ages 20-40 and I came out at 32, so for me fo = (40-32)/(40-20) = 0.4
fo=0.4
L: This is how long your search is. I only considered a window of 20-40, because the rate at which you meet people is age dependent. I only have 8 years left in that window. I've already folded that into the previous factor, so let's just pretend we have the entire twenty year window available.
L = 20 years
Let's put together what I have so far:
N= R*fc*fp*fa*fo*L
N= (1000 people/year)*(0.012)*(0.01)*(0.32)*(0.4)*(20 years)
N=0.3
That means, if I searched for 20 years, meeting 1000 people per year, opening my life to one new person per month, only two or three of them will identify as asexual. Out of 20,000 people I will meet, 240 that I open my heart to, only 2-3 will identify as asexual. That means that after 20 years of searching, I will have found only two or three friends who, when I reveal my asexuality, will know what I'm talking about.
Finally, consider that asexuality is a spectrum. I am aromantic asexual. I find romantic asexuals confounding, because they still yearn for relationships. That last factor brings the total number N to 0.3. That's less than a person.
So without the internet, what are my chances of randomly encountering an aromantic asexual, and having enough in common with them that I will reveal to them my sexuality? Virtually zero. Even if I kept up this incredible rate of meeting and opening up to new people, I could live a hundred years, and I might never meet one person who is aromantic asexual. Don't let that "1% of people are asexuals" statistic fool you. When you're asexual, it is insanely difficult to meet people that are like you in the course of your daily life. That is probably why, before the internet, no one knew about us at all.
by: 3SigmaAnomaly
For those that don't know, the Drake equation is an expression used in astronomy to estimate the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. If you knew the values of all the variables, then you'd be able to determine the probability of communicating with an alien civilization. It is affected by factors like how many stars are in the Galaxy, how many of those stars have planets, how many planets are habitable, how long a civilization would last, etc.
At times, I feel like an alien in this world, and I ask the question: am I alone in the Universe? What is the probability of meeting another aromantic asexual... someone like me? This is my Drake-Astrobean equation for asexuality. (Don't worry, I explain all my math with words.)
N= R*fc*fp*fa*fo*L
The factors in the Drake-Astrobean equation are:
N = The number of aromantic asexuals I will eventually meet and come out to
R = The rate at which I meet people (in the general population, without the aid of the internet to focus my search)
fc = The fraction of people that I encounter that I would reveal my sexuality to
fp = The fraction of people in the general population that identify as asexual
fa = The fraction of asexuals that identify as aromantic
fo = The probability that an asexual is out to him/herself and would reveal his/her sexuality to me
L = The "lifetime" of my search
There are other factors, but let's start here.
R: How do we estimate the rate at which we meet people? The internet is full of suggestions. E.g., some websites estimate a person will have met 20,000-100,000 people by the age of 90. Some people estimate that people ages 20-40 (not including sales people and hospital staff) will encounter 2-3 new people per day, or around 1000 per year. I don't think I encounter 1000 people per year, but it's a nice round number, and given the other generalizations I'll be making, it's not going to skew results too much.
R = 1000 people/year
fc: Let's consider intimacy. Of all the people you encounter, how many do you open yourself up to enough that you would even discuss sexuality.
Let's say that any given month, there may be one you will open up to and try to be close to. That's 12 new people every year that get subjected to the test of friendship. This isn't all those that pass the test, just the number that you feed tidbits to, and make decisions based on how they respond. Maybe your number is higher than mine. How many new people do you give the opportunity to learn something about you that few others know?
fc=0.012
fp: I've seen all over the internet that "up to 1% of people identifies as asexual." The number is based on an old survey done ages ago. It might be an overestimate. But it might just feel that way, because of all the other factors we're seeing here. Because this survey specifies that those involve experience no sexual attraction, we are not considering demisexuals and gray-asexuals as part of this 1%. (Though those distinctions should be considered, and the value of fp could be significantly smaller for those groups. Demisexuals and gray-A's feel like they're worlds away from me in the spectrum.)
fp=0.01
fa: Okay, so suppose I meet someone, and they say they're asexual too. Yay! But are they really like me? What is their romantic orientation? According to an anonymous poll posted on AVEN where 277 members have voted, the results currently stand as:
Aromantic: 32%, fa=0.32
Romantic: 45%, fa=0.45
Demiromantic: 14%, fa=0.14
Unsure: 9%, fa=0.09
We're not even looking into whether you're hetero, homo, bi, pan, etc. I'm going by the assumption that love is love, and if you meet someone who loves like you, the gender identity of the person or that person's partner (or partners or utter lack of partners) is irrelevant.
For me, fa=0.32
fo: I did not identify as asexual until recently. Some people discover it at a younger age. Some people never accept it as an identity. If you had encountered me five years ago, I would not have identified myself as asexual. I was exposed to a lot more people in my high school and college years, in the years I attended church, and when I was just starting out in the work force. The number of people I encounter has decreased significantly, and the chance to connect with those people over the common struggle of asexuality has been lost.
Also, the asexuals that I may have encountered prior to now may not have come out to themselves until after I had
already met them and parted ways, and I will never know that they are asexual. How many asexuals out there aren't out to themselves?
These kinds of things, I don't even know how to put a number on, but we're considering people we meet between ages 20-40 and I came out at 32, so for me fo = (40-32)/(40-20) = 0.4
fo=0.4
L: This is how long your search is. I only considered a window of 20-40, because the rate at which you meet people is age dependent. I only have 8 years left in that window. I've already folded that into the previous factor, so let's just pretend we have the entire twenty year window available.
L = 20 years
Let's put together what I have so far:
N= R*fc*fp*fa*fo*L
N= (1000 people/year)*(0.012)*(0.01)*(0.32)*(0.4)*(20 years)
N=0.3
That means, if I searched for 20 years, meeting 1000 people per year, opening my life to one new person per month, only two or three of them will identify as asexual. Out of 20,000 people I will meet, 240 that I open my heart to, only 2-3 will identify as asexual. That means that after 20 years of searching, I will have found only two or three friends who, when I reveal my asexuality, will know what I'm talking about.
Finally, consider that asexuality is a spectrum. I am aromantic asexual. I find romantic asexuals confounding, because they still yearn for relationships. That last factor brings the total number N to 0.3. That's less than a person.
So without the internet, what are my chances of randomly encountering an aromantic asexual, and having enough in common with them that I will reveal to them my sexuality? Virtually zero. Even if I kept up this incredible rate of meeting and opening up to new people, I could live a hundred years, and I might never meet one person who is aromantic asexual. Don't let that "1% of people are asexuals" statistic fool you. When you're asexual, it is insanely difficult to meet people that are like you in the course of your daily life. That is probably why, before the internet, no one knew about us at all.