This is a repost of a theory I came up with shortly after HBP, but now I have discovered a little more evidence to support my theory :)
I think Rufus Scrimgeour is allied with Lord Voldemort. I don't know if he's actually a Death Eater or just spying for Voldemort (perhaps even under duress) and controlling things in his favor (similar to how Shacklebolt controlled the search for Sirius Black). Whatever the case, I'm fairly certain Scrimgeour is teh evul!
It starts back in OotP:Lupin glanced at Harry, then said to Tonks, "What were you saying about Scrimgeour?"
"Oh . . . yeah . . . well, we need to be a bit more careful, he's been asking Kingsley and me funny questions…"
Innocent conversation eh? Jo set this up back in OotP. Suspicion is cast!
In chapter one of HBP we learn that Emmeline Vance and Amelia Bones were killed. Why?
I think Amelia Bones was killed because she was next in line for Fudge's job so she had to be gotten out of the way. What was so important about Emmeline Vance? Nothing, IMO. She was just another death to throw us off the track of Amelia Bones. Two names casually thrown out there-two people we've seen in the past. This is Rowling's style . . . to pretend to throw out tidbits of color when all along there's something important thrown out there as well.
The biggest clue is in Chapter one of HBP."Since they have moved into the open, they have been wreaking havoc. The Brockdale Bridge-he did it, Prime Minister, he threatened a mass Muggle killing unless I stood aside for him and-"
Fudge is incompetent. Why would Voldemort demand he "stand aside for him?" It makes more sense to have a bungling idiot politican in charge rather than a seasoned Auror. Amelia Bones was Rufus Scrimgeour's Boss. She was next in line for the Minister for Magic job. She had to be removed in order for Scrimgeour to be put in place.
We also see Fudge (or was it Scrimgeour?) put Shacklebolt in place as a secretary to the Prime Minister. Why is Kingsly Shacklebolt acting as a Secretary? Any old Auror could do that job; Shacklebolt is too good to be put in that position. Doesn't it keep him well occupied while Scimgeour takes control at the ministry?
On top of that we have another classic Rowling style smokescreen to hide the obvious. Luna Lovegood draws attention to Scrimgeour, albeit in a different manner. She paints him as evil. Bear with me here as I'm quoting a large section so you can see the size of the smokescreen :grin:When he arrived in the entrance hall at eight o'clock that night, he found an unusually large number of girls lurking there, all of whom seemed to be staring at him resentfully as he approached Luna. She was wearing a set of spangled silver robes that were attracting a certain amount of giggles from the onlookers, but otherwise she looked quite nice. Harry was glad, in any case, that she had left off her radish earrings, her butterbeer cork necklace, and her Spectrespecs.
"Hi," he said. "Shall we get going then?"
"Oh yes," she said happily. "Where is the party?"
"Slughorn's office," said Harry, leading her up the marble staircase away from all the staring and muttering. "Did you hear, there's supposed to be a vampire coming?"
"Rufus Scrimgeour?" asked Luna.
"I-what?" said Harry, disconcerted. "You mean the Minister of Magic?"
"Yes, he's a vampire," said Luna matter-of-factly. "Father wrote a very long article about it when Scrimgeour first took over from Cornelius Fudge, but he was forced not to publish by somebody from the Ministry. Obviously, they didn't want the truth to get out!"
Harry, who thought it most unlikely that Rufus Scrimgeour was a vampire, but who was used to Luna repeating her father's bizarre views as though they were fact, did not reply;
We already know Luna is out to lunch but Jo colors it a little more heavily than she needs to. This adds to her misdirection. Harry sure seems interested in meeting this vampire, doesn't he? But when we get to the party, he is introduced to the vampire but other than that, shows no excitement or interest. This is just an opening for Luna to point out that an article about Scrimgeour was suppressed by the ministry. After all, even tabloids, without an ounce of truth, spreads doubt. What was the basis for Mr. Lovegood's article? What was his source (no matter how non-factual it was)? Was it really suppressed? By whom?
Finally there is the fishyness of the innocent (Stan Shunpike) still being held in Azkaban even though he's known to be innocent; this is too conspicuous."They're not still holding Stan Shunpike, are they?" asked Harry.
"I'm afraid so," said Mr. Weasley. "I know Dumbledore's tried appealing directly to Scrimgeour about Stan. . . . I mean, anybody who has actually interviewed him agrees that he's about as much a Death Eater as this satsuma . . . but the top levels want to look as though they're making some progress, and 'three arrests' sounds better than 'three mistaken arrests and releases'. . . but again, this is all top secret. . . ."
Three arrests along with "cleared of charges" would look better, especially when all the people who've done the interviewing agree on the innocence. These people, like Arthur, are telling others. People should begin to talk."Dumbledore's a lot older than sixteen, and he doesn't think Stan should be in Azkaban either," said Harry. "You're making Stan a scapegoat, just like you want to make me a mascot.
They looked at each other, long and hard. Finally Scrimgeour said, with no pretense at warmth, "I see. You prefer-like your hero, Dumbledore-to disassociate yourself from the Ministry?
Dumbledore had his reasons for disassociating himself from the Ministry. We're lead to believe, through Fudge, that it was for some other reason unrelated to Scrimgeour. I think that Dumbledore would have been glad to be seen working closely with the ministry but he had reason to believe something was awry at the ministry once Scrimgeour took over. Amelia Bones' murder must have been fishy to him too.
Scrimgeour is not to be trusted.
I also think Scrimgeour was trying to get Harry to go along with his "poster boy" plan for two reasons. One, the reason he said, and two, to keep tabs on Harry for LV.
ETA: I also think Dolores Umbridge had something to do with the murder of Amelia Bones, but that's for another theory.