Deflating the Apple Announcements
Boy oh boy is there a lot to talk about. Apple announced two products today: the iPhone and the AppleTV. I know I have a lot of friends who are hardcore Mac Zealots and this post is mainly for them. There's reason for concern in these announcements for the average person as well, though. These announcements affect more than just Apple Inc's (no longer "Apple Computer Inc.") foray into new markets. At the end I will talk about what Apple didn't announce.
First the AppleTV. Apple has a great thing going for it with the Mac Mini. It appears that they took that machine and dumbed it down a bit to make a set-top box. But what did they remove? First of all, they lost all disc-based media support. No DVD, no HD-DVD, no BluRay drive. Not even a stinking CD drive. Next, they offer a maximum video resolution of 720p. For comparison's sake, my Mac Mini is pushing a 24" Dell monitor with a 1920x1200 resolution. That's more than 1080p. Why is this strange? Well, the connections that Apple added to the back of the machine are all HD compatible. We're talking optical audio output, component video, and even HDMI.
The AppleTV works by connecting over 802.11b/g/n wireless networks or Ethernet (10/100 max) to your computers elsewhere. It talks to iTunes 7.1 over these networks and serves you the media available there. This, then, is a $300 extension from your computer for your television set. It features a beautiful interface, to be sure. However, it's very, very similar to the interface provided by Front Row, an application that already comes standard on all new Apple-made computers. So if you really, really need to watch your video-podcasts on your brand-spankin' new Television set you no longer have to purchase a Mini for it. You can simply add a $300 extension to your iTunes software and stream it over your network.
First gen AppleTV? Maybe for the internet-inclined, tech-un-savvy. Definitely not for me. This will probably cut into their Mac Mini sales a little as well. Unfortunate.
But now we move on to the worst move the company has made in ages: the iPhone.
Take a second and breath. Let your mind settle from all of the neat features that the iPhone brings to the cell-phone market. Let that Apple glow fade from your eyes. Let's dissect this announcement.
First, some of the many, many capabilities that the phone brings to the cellphone paradigm.
Look back at Apple over the recent years. Certainly the move to x86 processors was huge for them. They're selling more computers than they ever have and it's mostly because people feel confident in their purchases; confident that they can revert to Windows if OSX turns out to offend them. It is not, however, the computer division that has brought Apple all of its recent success. What has brought Apple its success is its monolithic, if not monopolistic, iPod/iTunes combination. Apple has sold more of these than anyone ever imagined possible and even the second place MP3 player is so far behind as to be laughable.
And therein lies the conflict. The first of the UNannouncements of the day was the Widescreen iPod. Yes, those words crossed Steve Jobs' lips but they were followed by words resembling "integrated into iPhone." Apple did not announce the Widescreen Video iPod. And you know what? Now they won't.
Apple claimed they wished to sell 10 million iPhones within, what was it, three years? Is it possible? Well, the phone certainly is attractive. But, then again, so is the PS3. Funny how the iPhone shares the SAME PRICE as the PS3. And that's being subsidized by the single provider to enter a deal with Apple: Cingular. Those $499, $599 (4GB, 8GB respectively) price tags include a mandatory 2-year contract with Cingular.
Let's examine all of this: Apple wishes to sell 10 million iPhones. It wishes to sell those at the same prices as the PS3. Worldwide, Sony has been able to sell only 1.41 million units since November. That's a fairly decent rate. But we're also talking a gaming console, a BluRay player, and worldwide. Apple won't even start shipping the iPhone in Asia until 2008. Oh, and Sony doesn't have to worry about bad network reception in certain areas as Apple will with Cingular. (Oh, and take a look at these charts. Sony was unquestionably on top in the last round, selling well more than double the stock of its closest competitor. Microsoft and Nintendo couldn't even hold a match. The importance of those charts should be clear.)
Hmm... sounds like this is going to be a tough sell. As such, Apple is going to protect the ideas it has put into the iPhone as best it can to keep it as unique and attractive as possible. Steve Jobs repeatedly spoke of over 200 new patents that they were going to fight very hard to protect. Well, one of the features that I'm sure he's going to protect in the iPhone is that real nice, shiny, new Widescreen Video iPod. Yup. Can you imagine Apple releasing an update to the iPod line at this point to include widescreen? No. Me neither. Doing that would only take away from the thunder of its iPhone. And therein lies the problem.
Apple is now competing with itself.
If people want an iPod they'll go with a video iPod. The 80GB iPod is $350. That's $150 less than the 4GB iPhone. Technology is, as it ever has been, advancing at a rapid rate. Other mp3 manufacturers are going to continue to add widescreens to their portable media players and cut prices. Apple will be forced to cut the price of their 5.5G iPod line in order to remain competitive in light of their competitions advancements. I know a lot of people, chief among them myself, who have been itching for a Widescreen Video iPod. I don't know a single one of those people who'd be willing to shell out $500-600 for a 4GB or 8GB version. Apple has given Microsoft and its Zune, number 2 in the portable media player market, the green light. I'm betting Mr. Gates and Co are clapping their hands. Furiously.
Widescreen Video iPod update? Not for a long, long time. My guess is that Apple will not release one until competition heats up and the market-at-large rejects the iPhone for its price. Outlandish it is not, given its technology, but neither is the PS3. And we're all familiar with the headlines the PS3 finds itself in...
Other things that went unannounced at the keynote were anything at all regarding the computers. (This is MacWorld after all. AppleWorld may be a more appropriate name at this point.) Given the current processor industry, Apple should have announced 8-core Mac Pros. They also have a whole bunch of space to fill in their lineup regarding the super-portable end. No 12" laptop is a bummer for a lot of people. 13" MacBooks are nice but they are not Pro. I've heard a lot of Pro-users lament the loss of the 12" Powerbook. Not necessary but a definite welcome potential addition to the line.
Oh yeah, and Bill Gates threw up a whole lot about Vista over at his CES keynote just days before MacWorld. They even took a stab at OSX 10.5's TimeMachine application, eliciting chuckles from the audience (speaking of a new file reversion functionality, the presenter claimed "It's better than going back in time"). Anything new on that at the keynote? Nothing. Not a single mention of 10.5.
How about iLife '07? iWork '07? Nothing. Not a peep. Either Apple is switching gears and deciding to forego all the fanfare of keynotes and special events to announce its new products or its waiting for another event. I'd expect an event coming up sometime by the end of March in which they'll announce these application suites, updates to the entire computer line, and more on Leopard (OSX 10.5), if not announce 10.5 itself. That's just a hunch, though.
But seriously? Apple is now competing with itself in two areas: AppleTV vs Mac Mini and iPhone vs iPod. The prior is arguably inconsequential in the long run but the latter? Apple is only stifling its own progress.
And so it begins.
First the AppleTV. Apple has a great thing going for it with the Mac Mini. It appears that they took that machine and dumbed it down a bit to make a set-top box. But what did they remove? First of all, they lost all disc-based media support. No DVD, no HD-DVD, no BluRay drive. Not even a stinking CD drive. Next, they offer a maximum video resolution of 720p. For comparison's sake, my Mac Mini is pushing a 24" Dell monitor with a 1920x1200 resolution. That's more than 1080p. Why is this strange? Well, the connections that Apple added to the back of the machine are all HD compatible. We're talking optical audio output, component video, and even HDMI.
The AppleTV works by connecting over 802.11b/g/n wireless networks or Ethernet (10/100 max) to your computers elsewhere. It talks to iTunes 7.1 over these networks and serves you the media available there. This, then, is a $300 extension from your computer for your television set. It features a beautiful interface, to be sure. However, it's very, very similar to the interface provided by Front Row, an application that already comes standard on all new Apple-made computers. So if you really, really need to watch your video-podcasts on your brand-spankin' new Television set you no longer have to purchase a Mini for it. You can simply add a $300 extension to your iTunes software and stream it over your network.
First gen AppleTV? Maybe for the internet-inclined, tech-un-savvy. Definitely not for me. This will probably cut into their Mac Mini sales a little as well. Unfortunate.
But now we move on to the worst move the company has made in ages: the iPhone.
Take a second and breath. Let your mind settle from all of the neat features that the iPhone brings to the cell-phone market. Let that Apple glow fade from your eyes. Let's dissect this announcement.
First, some of the many, many capabilities that the phone brings to the cellphone paradigm.
- Touch screen. There's one button on the damn thing. Everything is done through finger gestures. Scrolling, zooming (uses two fingers doing 'splits' and stuff), navigation, selection, etc. Very slick.
- Widescreen. This thing has a 480x320 pixel resolution. Very nice. Very big.
- Small size. Given everything it's capable of, the physical size is remarkably tiny.
- 4GB-8GB storage. Depending on the model. This is basically an iPod Nano with built-in phone and other features.
- Wireless access. 802.11b/g. Bluetooth 2.0. EDGE. This thing can connect to just about any network you can dream of.
- Push IMAP. My assumption is that Push IMAP is normal IMAP except you don't need to 'check' for new mail constantly. I'm sure it works something like Blitzmail, for those who ever experienced Dartmouth's [in]famous e-mail client. Apparently it's like a Blackberry.
- Widescreen iPod. Yes, it's a widescreen video iPod as well. 'Nuff said.
- Runs OSX. This means that porting applications to the phone should be fairly painless.
- Safari. The built in browser is also one of the most capable: Safari. Huzzah.
- Battery Life. Amazingly, this thing can go for 16 hours on audio. Unfortunately it only runs for 5 hours with Talk / Video / Internet.
Look back at Apple over the recent years. Certainly the move to x86 processors was huge for them. They're selling more computers than they ever have and it's mostly because people feel confident in their purchases; confident that they can revert to Windows if OSX turns out to offend them. It is not, however, the computer division that has brought Apple all of its recent success. What has brought Apple its success is its monolithic, if not monopolistic, iPod/iTunes combination. Apple has sold more of these than anyone ever imagined possible and even the second place MP3 player is so far behind as to be laughable.
And therein lies the conflict. The first of the UNannouncements of the day was the Widescreen iPod. Yes, those words crossed Steve Jobs' lips but they were followed by words resembling "integrated into iPhone." Apple did not announce the Widescreen Video iPod. And you know what? Now they won't.
Apple claimed they wished to sell 10 million iPhones within, what was it, three years? Is it possible? Well, the phone certainly is attractive. But, then again, so is the PS3. Funny how the iPhone shares the SAME PRICE as the PS3. And that's being subsidized by the single provider to enter a deal with Apple: Cingular. Those $499, $599 (4GB, 8GB respectively) price tags include a mandatory 2-year contract with Cingular.
Let's examine all of this: Apple wishes to sell 10 million iPhones. It wishes to sell those at the same prices as the PS3. Worldwide, Sony has been able to sell only 1.41 million units since November. That's a fairly decent rate. But we're also talking a gaming console, a BluRay player, and worldwide. Apple won't even start shipping the iPhone in Asia until 2008. Oh, and Sony doesn't have to worry about bad network reception in certain areas as Apple will with Cingular. (Oh, and take a look at these charts. Sony was unquestionably on top in the last round, selling well more than double the stock of its closest competitor. Microsoft and Nintendo couldn't even hold a match. The importance of those charts should be clear.)
Hmm... sounds like this is going to be a tough sell. As such, Apple is going to protect the ideas it has put into the iPhone as best it can to keep it as unique and attractive as possible. Steve Jobs repeatedly spoke of over 200 new patents that they were going to fight very hard to protect. Well, one of the features that I'm sure he's going to protect in the iPhone is that real nice, shiny, new Widescreen Video iPod. Yup. Can you imagine Apple releasing an update to the iPod line at this point to include widescreen? No. Me neither. Doing that would only take away from the thunder of its iPhone. And therein lies the problem.
Apple is now competing with itself.
If people want an iPod they'll go with a video iPod. The 80GB iPod is $350. That's $150 less than the 4GB iPhone. Technology is, as it ever has been, advancing at a rapid rate. Other mp3 manufacturers are going to continue to add widescreens to their portable media players and cut prices. Apple will be forced to cut the price of their 5.5G iPod line in order to remain competitive in light of their competitions advancements. I know a lot of people, chief among them myself, who have been itching for a Widescreen Video iPod. I don't know a single one of those people who'd be willing to shell out $500-600 for a 4GB or 8GB version. Apple has given Microsoft and its Zune, number 2 in the portable media player market, the green light. I'm betting Mr. Gates and Co are clapping their hands. Furiously.
Widescreen Video iPod update? Not for a long, long time. My guess is that Apple will not release one until competition heats up and the market-at-large rejects the iPhone for its price. Outlandish it is not, given its technology, but neither is the PS3. And we're all familiar with the headlines the PS3 finds itself in...
Other things that went unannounced at the keynote were anything at all regarding the computers. (This is MacWorld after all. AppleWorld may be a more appropriate name at this point.) Given the current processor industry, Apple should have announced 8-core Mac Pros. They also have a whole bunch of space to fill in their lineup regarding the super-portable end. No 12" laptop is a bummer for a lot of people. 13" MacBooks are nice but they are not Pro. I've heard a lot of Pro-users lament the loss of the 12" Powerbook. Not necessary but a definite welcome potential addition to the line.
Oh yeah, and Bill Gates threw up a whole lot about Vista over at his CES keynote just days before MacWorld. They even took a stab at OSX 10.5's TimeMachine application, eliciting chuckles from the audience (speaking of a new file reversion functionality, the presenter claimed "It's better than going back in time"). Anything new on that at the keynote? Nothing. Not a single mention of 10.5.
How about iLife '07? iWork '07? Nothing. Not a peep. Either Apple is switching gears and deciding to forego all the fanfare of keynotes and special events to announce its new products or its waiting for another event. I'd expect an event coming up sometime by the end of March in which they'll announce these application suites, updates to the entire computer line, and more on Leopard (OSX 10.5), if not announce 10.5 itself. That's just a hunch, though.
But seriously? Apple is now competing with itself in two areas: AppleTV vs Mac Mini and iPhone vs iPod. The prior is arguably inconsequential in the long run but the latter? Apple is only stifling its own progress.
And so it begins.