Theoretically
Going with the working theory that the successful candidate is the one who spends the most money on their campaign, and barring any significant changes in the next couple of months, Barack Obama should handily win the presidential election.
From the Testimony on Campaign Finance Reform back in 2000:
In today's world of media-centered, high-priced campaigns, money has become the cornerstone of a successful race. Fundraising potential not only influences a prospective candidate's decision to run for office, but is also an indicator of their political viability. In all congressional primaries so far this year, 95% of all candidates who had raised the most money twelve days before the primary won their parties nomination. Similarly in the last election cycle, candidates who spent the most won 94% of general election Senate races and 95% of House races. Finally, in every presidential primary since 1976, the candidate who has raised the most money in the year prior to the election has won the primary.
Current data from Open Secrets:
Barack Obama
Total Raised: $389,423,102
Total Spent: $323,585,292
John McCain
Total Raised: $174,165,949
Total Spent: $141,397,734
Note to candidates from other parties: There is no grand conspiracy keeping you out of elections, debates, etc. You don't have enough public support to raise the money to be taken seriously. (Bob Barr, the only Libertarian candidate on the data sheet, raised a total of $629,380.) Please establish a significantly larger support base.
From the Testimony on Campaign Finance Reform back in 2000:
In today's world of media-centered, high-priced campaigns, money has become the cornerstone of a successful race. Fundraising potential not only influences a prospective candidate's decision to run for office, but is also an indicator of their political viability. In all congressional primaries so far this year, 95% of all candidates who had raised the most money twelve days before the primary won their parties nomination. Similarly in the last election cycle, candidates who spent the most won 94% of general election Senate races and 95% of House races. Finally, in every presidential primary since 1976, the candidate who has raised the most money in the year prior to the election has won the primary.
Current data from Open Secrets:
Barack Obama
Total Raised: $389,423,102
Total Spent: $323,585,292
John McCain
Total Raised: $174,165,949
Total Spent: $141,397,734
Note to candidates from other parties: There is no grand conspiracy keeping you out of elections, debates, etc. You don't have enough public support to raise the money to be taken seriously. (Bob Barr, the only Libertarian candidate on the data sheet, raised a total of $629,380.) Please establish a significantly larger support base.