My 2008 Election Predictions

[undercrypt]

95% of the contested seats will go to the candidate who spends the most money on their campaign.

The presidential election will be won by the candidate who spends the most money on their campaign.

Just like 2004.

Comments

My Own Prediction

[ext_84118]

My own prediction was made prior to the primary and still holds true. http://thepeterfiles.blogspot.com/2008/01/newsflash-peter-files-blog-of-comedy.html

To translate it from the terms I put it in my own quixotic way in my blog, I essentially said that we would have huge numbers, outstandingly large numbers of voters in this election.

I stand pat on that statement.

I have to disagree for once on your assertion about the most money spent argument. If that were true, Mitt Romney would be the front runner for the Republican party having spent far more, something like $40 Million more than McCain in this election, but he did not.

If Obama wins, it will be because of charisma, message, and the blunders perceived by the public of the Bush administration over the last 8 years. Note that I am not accusing them of blunders, merely noting public perceptions that may influence some votes.

If Clinton overcomes the Bill factor and

Re: My Own Prediction

[undercrypt]

These are all extremely good points, thank you.

If that were true, Mitt Romney would be the front runner...

I don't believe the "most money wins" rule holds early in the election cycle, since the voters during that period are typically more well-informed and involved in the issues and candidates at hand. When the process is handed over to the public in general, though, the media exposure backed by campaign finances takes over.

It would thrill me to be wrong, so here's hoping.

I've also been framing it as a causal relationship, but that's not necessarily the case. Charisma and message are excellent tools for fundraising.