My hope is that Liz, Andy and Yvette's supporters will vote strategically and not preference Jeremy or put him 4th meaning that if he can't win in the first round he's out of the running. If it goes to a second round, Liz is going to be the person most likely eliminated first and Liz's supporters are going to be the least likely to second preference Jeremy, if the voting between Andy and Jeremy is closer than we think in the first round (and I suspect it is), Liz's preferences could give it to Andy in the second round. Alternatively, a large proportion of Liz's votes could go to Yvette knocking either Andy or Jeremy out of the contes if Yvette gets more votes in the first round than expected. If it goes to a third round and it is Jeremy vs. either Andy or Yvette, I expect that a significant majority of Andy's supporters would preference Yvette higher than Jeremy and vice versa, giving it to Andy or Yvette in the final round.
TL;DR: Jeremy winning is not the foregone conclusion the press and his supporters think it is.
Tbh, I had a long converstation with my dad the other day about Corbyn's chances (he is where I get it from), and I don't feel so quite so pessimistic about Labour Leader Corbyn anymore.
a) Labour really need to win back Scotland, and he could put some good lefty groundwork into that. b) He could also appeal to the UKIP vote as he is percieved as anti-EU and a 'man of the people' (whatever that is these days).
(My dad's assement: Yvette would be the most sensible leader, but isn't charismatic enough to appeal to the general public. Andy is the best choice and most likely to unite the party. Jezza is a bit, well, socks and sandals, but Labour have only made themselves look bad by throwing a fit over the entire thing. Liz is a dyed-in-the-wool Blairite so he hates her.)
Even if every single UKIP voter voted for him and every single green etc: we might not get a majority with the changes that are - a'coming. They might get back the North (and that's assuming he lasts 5 years but the south?)
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(surprisingly, they even had a short portrait of corbyn in our newspaper the other day. with bonus campbell mention)
"I'll show George Osborne what a real Northern Powerhouse looks like!!!"
that.. definitely sounds like a euphemism
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TL;DR: Jeremy winning is not the foregone conclusion the press and his supporters think it is.
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I haven't been kicked out of the election yet! Does this make me a secret society member?
Also also - The dude that told Peter Mandelson to STFU? He's a frog now. I'm sure of it.
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a) Labour really need to win back Scotland, and he could put some good lefty groundwork into that.
b) He could also appeal to the UKIP vote as he is percieved as anti-EU and a 'man of the people' (whatever that is these days).
(My dad's assement: Yvette would be the most sensible leader, but isn't charismatic enough to appeal to the general public. Andy is the best choice and most likely to unite the party. Jezza is a bit, well, socks and sandals, but Labour have only made themselves look bad by throwing a fit over the entire thing. Liz is a dyed-in-the-wool Blairite so he hates her.)
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*sigh* Well, at least there's the UKIP vote then. They might like his questionable associates.
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