Tropical Storm Arthur TWC Graphics

[cieldumort]

ARTHUR STORM TRACK & STATS

Comments

[cixel]

here we go!

[cieldumort]

Of course, meanwhile, back in the oven

er, I mean Texas & Florida...

[team_ragnarok]

Still confused as to why this was upgraded. I couldn't find anything that supported TS status at the time it was upgraded. o_O

[cieldumort]

I found a couple as early as late last night... wasn't at all surprised by the upgrade.

Here are some of the arguments that stand out:

Tropical Low (check)
Closed circulation (check)
Deep, convective banding (check)
Tropical Downpours (check)
Sustained winds 35 knots or better near the center (check)
Persistence (check)

Checks out! ;)

[team_ragnarok]

But the problem is that when it was upgraded, it was a broad low over land (NHC doesn't designate tropical storms when they're inland), and the ship reports and buoy observations they mentioned only showed 30 kt winds. That first part is why they didn't classify Erin as a tropical storm when it was over land; they didn't consider it to be tropical because it developed inland.

I know ex-Alma/90L/pre-Arthur did spend time over water, but this might set a double standard.

[cieldumort]

But tropical storms actually have formed -and- been classified by NHC while over land before.

IMHO, the primary reason NHC chose not to reclassify Erin as a tropical storm (even though it had all the parameters of being one again) was not because it was inland, but rather because it was helped along more by the passing trof and less so by transpiration from land and the extremely warm, moist, unstable advection from the Gulf.

As I've mentioned elsewhere, the ship reports (I saw them myself) were running between 40 and 45 knots (46 to 51 mph) and the buoy cited was having technical difficulties, but did appear to clock a 1-min sustained wind of 35 knots prior to reporting problems.