Dr. Gray's Update -

[cieldumort]

Dr. Gray & the Colorado State team have released their updated outlook for the season:

" We foresee an active Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season in 2006; however, we have reduced our projection for 2006 hurricane activity from our earlier forecasts. Landfall probabilities for the 2006 hurricane season are projected to be above their long-

Comments

[major7]

I feel silly sticking with my original forecast, but it is still early in the season and the height of the season is still a month away.

[cieldumort]

Well, I'm way, way down from where I was back in March-June. Major detractions I see going into August are: Continuation of merely average or only slightly above average SSTs, overall; anomalously high MSLPs in much of the favored area; ongoing and persistent ULL-generated wind shear conditions. I was tempted to go even lower than my votes the other day, even.

On the upside, shearing events have slowly come down to season norms - SSTs a tiny bit higher than norm, overall; a phat LCE is sitting pretty in the middle of the GOM - and about where it was last year; fronts continue to push a little further south than normal - allowing for warm core systems to form along them if/when they stall; the wave train off of Africa has been phenomenal this year; the SER is gradually coming into favorable position.

Think it's coming together for August. Wild cards exist, however. All of that SAL action certainly cuts both ways, for example - and so far seemingly negative for development.

[cieldumort]

Heh. If anything, I'm almost ready for them to pull back again next round - we'll see, eh? ;)

[cieldumort]

Conceding some of the obvious, is all ;)

[cixel]

all i need is 1. CAT 5. RIGHT HERE BABY!

[cieldumort]

I'll settle for just some decent rain right about now. Most of interior Texas has been sooo dry this year. It's horrible.

[cieldumort]

Looks to be ENSO neutral, but I sense a slight bias in favor of some warming out there. There has certainly been a cooling trend in the Atlantic basin owing to stronger high pressure and commensurate faster trade winds, this season.

I have been entertaining for several weeks the possibility of the east pac well-outpacing the Atlantic this year.

By the way, have you seen those water temps just off socal!?

[cieldumort]

Yeah, I'll look into setting up an RSS for those - I don't see why I can't.