Comments | twc_aficionados: Invest 97L Bears Watching

cieldumort in twc_aficionados

Invest 97L Bears Watching

Nov 03, 2009 09:10

After many weeks, what almost even seems like many hurricane seasons now it has been so long, a fairly well organized low pressure system has formed in the extreme southwestern Caribbean within a significantly more favorable environment than the Atlantic has enjoyed for most of this season.

Caribbean Invest 97L

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Comments 3

team_ragnarok November 3 2009, 16:23:48 UTC

This is really the only favorable area for purely tropical development in the Atlantic basin. It's not going too far but climatology actually favors it just heading into Central America a la Beta and Gamma in 2005. The CIMSS steering product indicates it would need to become a very strong system (940-949hPa or 112-122kts) to be steered to the north.

cieldumort November 3 2009, 21:19:13 UTC

Smaller systems and all-

Despite the month, given its size and the environment it is developing in, I think some surprisingly robust intensification is not at all out of the question. I give it a 1:3 odds of becoming a high-end TS or even a hurricane, and maybe even a little better odds than that.

cieldumort November 3 2009, 21:22:35 UTC

TCFA just issued

UNCLAS//N03146//
WTNT21 KNGU 032000Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 032000Z NOV 09//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 81.2W TO 12.5N 83.6W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. REMARKS: A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 81.0W WITH ESTIMATED
WINDS OF 20 KNOTS AND IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED DUE TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERY MINIMAL WIND SHEAR.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, CANCELLED, OR EXPIRE BY 042000Z NOV
2009.//