5 Years in Iraq
Back in November 2005 I wrote about the importance of judging events in midstream "before all the facts are in ... while there's still a chance to influence the outcome." History is continuous making it difficult to know when we finally out of the stream and ready for final historical judgement, but anniversaries are a good occasion for a midstream evaluation. How are we doing, where have we been going, and where does it look like we'll wind up?
"Al Qaeda terrorists" are less powerful than they were at the height of the violence, but significantly more powerful than they were before our invasion allowed them to take root, when there was no connection between them and Saddam's government. According to US intelligence reports and others the Iraq war is fueling Al Qaeda, not destroying it.
Saddam's government, which we supported against the radically religious, terrorist-supporting extremists in Iran, has been replaced with an impotent confederacy fraught with infighting and filled with Iranian puppets. Iraq's first full state welcome for any leader was to the President of Iran. Not the top secret hit-and-run visits that Bush makes, but a full and open meeting announced weeks in advance, in front of a crowd, in broad daylight. After five years of his army occupying the country the most powerful man in the world can't openly visit Iraq but the leader of their former enemy can. If you like to compare the rebuilding of Iraq to Germany after World War 2, this is the equivalent of Stalin getting a state welcome in Germany after World War 2 as Truman is forced to sneak around under cover of darkness.
Iraq's government has been weakened largely from internal forces - religious warlords like Muqtada al-Sadr rule their feifdoms under a version of religious law stricter than anything Saddam had, carrying enough influence to get partial credit for the Surge's " success". Like Saddam's government they rule with violence and torture. Unlike Saddam's government they are not a formally recognized government making not just political contact and cooperation more difficult. Further fragmentation seems likely and troubling, since this would create even more independent splinter groups and armed factions to track.
Iraqis are voting with their feet. More than 4.5 million Iraqis have left the homes they lived in under Saddam. 2.5 million Iraqis have been "displaced internally" while more than 2 million have fled to neighbouring states, particularly Syria and Jordan. The 2 million expatriates represent 40% of the Iraqi middle class - the professors, engineers, and entrepreneurs who were to be the backbone of the economy and reconstruction effort. A minute percentage have returned home, some willingly, some out of necessity as their savings dwindle. As of December the UNHCR said the situation in Iraq was "not yet conducive to large-scale return". Iraq is still too dangerous to support the population who lived there unhappily under Saddam.
Some military commanders have expressed these misgivings in public. Sanchez, Fallon, Petraeus, and others have expressed their concern and reservations as publicly as it is acceptable for the military to do. I have special sympathy for the military; it must be very frustrating to spend so much effort to lay the groundwork for security, peace, and reconciliation when Iraqis don't even bother showing up. The American troop surge in Iraq has "worked" in that it has plugged a flood of violence but has not "worked" in that the actual necessary work has yet been done.
Iraq has been transformed by our invasion from a secular, monolithic, contained bulwark against Iran and Al Qaeda, terrorized by a single accountable and awful man, to a fragmented, radical ally of Iran and training ground for Al Qaeda, terrorized more extensively by dozens of unaccountable and terrible men, at an estimated final cost of three trillion dollars.
Happy anniversary.
"Al Qaeda terrorists" are less powerful than they were at the height of the violence, but significantly more powerful than they were before our invasion allowed them to take root, when there was no connection between them and Saddam's government. According to US intelligence reports and others the Iraq war is fueling Al Qaeda, not destroying it.
Saddam's government, which we supported against the radically religious, terrorist-supporting extremists in Iran, has been replaced with an impotent confederacy fraught with infighting and filled with Iranian puppets. Iraq's first full state welcome for any leader was to the President of Iran. Not the top secret hit-and-run visits that Bush makes, but a full and open meeting announced weeks in advance, in front of a crowd, in broad daylight. After five years of his army occupying the country the most powerful man in the world can't openly visit Iraq but the leader of their former enemy can. If you like to compare the rebuilding of Iraq to Germany after World War 2, this is the equivalent of Stalin getting a state welcome in Germany after World War 2 as Truman is forced to sneak around under cover of darkness.
Iraq's government has been weakened largely from internal forces - religious warlords like Muqtada al-Sadr rule their feifdoms under a version of religious law stricter than anything Saddam had, carrying enough influence to get partial credit for the Surge's " success". Like Saddam's government they rule with violence and torture. Unlike Saddam's government they are not a formally recognized government making not just political contact and cooperation more difficult. Further fragmentation seems likely and troubling, since this would create even more independent splinter groups and armed factions to track.
Iraqis are voting with their feet. More than 4.5 million Iraqis have left the homes they lived in under Saddam. 2.5 million Iraqis have been "displaced internally" while more than 2 million have fled to neighbouring states, particularly Syria and Jordan. The 2 million expatriates represent 40% of the Iraqi middle class - the professors, engineers, and entrepreneurs who were to be the backbone of the economy and reconstruction effort. A minute percentage have returned home, some willingly, some out of necessity as their savings dwindle. As of December the UNHCR said the situation in Iraq was "not yet conducive to large-scale return". Iraq is still too dangerous to support the population who lived there unhappily under Saddam.
Some military commanders have expressed these misgivings in public. Sanchez, Fallon, Petraeus, and others have expressed their concern and reservations as publicly as it is acceptable for the military to do. I have special sympathy for the military; it must be very frustrating to spend so much effort to lay the groundwork for security, peace, and reconciliation when Iraqis don't even bother showing up. The American troop surge in Iraq has "worked" in that it has plugged a flood of violence but has not "worked" in that the actual necessary work has yet been done.
Iraq has been transformed by our invasion from a secular, monolithic, contained bulwark against Iran and Al Qaeda, terrorized by a single accountable and awful man, to a fragmented, radical ally of Iran and training ground for Al Qaeda, terrorized more extensively by dozens of unaccountable and terrible men, at an estimated final cost of three trillion dollars.
Happy anniversary.