George Bush, Republicans and their friends do not appear to be manipulating oil prices
Gas prices have gone down 17% recently, from $3.15 on August 1 to $2.67 today. I've heard and read several opinions that Bush is manipulating gas prices to increase Republican popularity for the midterm election, and supposedly 42% of Americans think Bush controls oil prices.
On one hand I can't rule it out entirely. It's possible, I suppose, ( Read more... )
On one hand I can't rule it out entirely. It's possible, I suppose, ( Read more... )
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That's what frustrates me. This is the Flying Spaghetti Monster of conspiracy theories, with "Gas prices" and "Republicans" replacing "Global Temperature" and "Pirates".
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The FSM is about religious refusal to acknowledge the overwhelming weight of evidence and the absense of significant contrary evidence because there's no "incontroverable proof". I'm trying to point out that this is a case where neither of us seem to have access to sufficient evidence to make a conclusive statement either way.
Put another way, when you say "No one's convinced me that X exists," I agree that "[you] don't need to disprove the existence of something [you] don't believe in." If you say "X doesn't exist," then I think you have some disproving to do. If I ignore a huge body of evidence that X doesn't exist because it's not "proof", you can feel free to mock me with pasta-based satire.
Which is not to say you shouldn't feel free to mock conspiracy theorists whenever the mood strikes.
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No, it's really not.
You have a theory. As you admitted above ("Nobody has even released a really bad study correlating only two variables."), there is insufficient evidence available to us at the moment to determine whether prices in individual local markets are what supply and demand suggest they should be. Hell, we don't even know what prices and pricing trends the individual local markets are, beyond what you and a few people you've talked to have observed. Without such evidence, we can't judge how well your theory fits the facts.
For whatever reason, you don't want to say "I don't have enough data to determine what's going on here." Instead, you're making a default assumption ("market factors are the primary controlling factor") and sticking to it until someone proves otherwise. Scientists don't assume evolution; they assumed as little as possible, and after a relatively objective assessment of a shitload of evidence, they came up with a theory that fits that evidence, and ( ... )
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I don't have enough data to prove what's going on here, but the explanation I've advanced is in agreement with availiable data, and I can't find any data to support, agree with, or even hint at the influence of Flying Spaghetti Republicans. If you've had better luck please let me know. For some reason conspiracy theorists don't want to talk about causes that are supported by history and market data.
It seems very likely to me that, at minimum, decreased demand, the bottom falling out of the futures market, and cheaper government-regulated blends are contributing significantly to falling prices. And it seems at least somewhat likely that, at minimum, Flying Spaghetti Republicans' contribution is very close to zero ( ... )
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You don't have enough to data even to describe the phenomenon, never mind evaluate what might be causing it. There may be more data available, but I don't know it and you haven't cited it. You haven't even cited a national average gas price trend, which would, in and of itself be so vague as to tell almost nothing. Your price data comes from what you and a few people you've talked to have seen. Your explanatory information is incredibly vague (how much has demand fallen? how quickly? nationally? locally? which local markets? how much cheaper are the blends?). This isn't enough to say much of anything about anything.
the explanation I've advanced is in agreement with availiable data, and I can't find any data to support, agree with, or even hint at the influence of Flying Spaghetti Republicans.The data you've cited so far is so vague and inconclusive that there are any number of explanations that could be "in agreement" with it, including market manipulation. You've put forward a ( ... )
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How exactly can you be arguing against something I'm unable to describe? I've advanced an opinion based on the facts at hand. I've looked for anything that might contradict what I've said. I've made every good faith effort I could possibly make to vet my theory, and my audience is already aware of my limited ability to speak authoritatively on the subject.
What more do you need? What exactly are you saying? That laymen shouldn't discuss oil prices at all because the entire area of knowlege is completely incomprehensible? You're setting a standard so unreasonably high that it essentially prevents anyone who hasn't made it their life's work from offering their opinion on the subject ( ... )
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