I think it's odd that they can claim Franken lost because he has 477 votes fewer out of 1.2 million. Certainly that is within the uncertainty range, making it statistically meaningless to say one candidate won and the other lost. I wonder why this doesn't bother normal people.
In their defense, they haven't called the race. Those are just the numbers they posted. Also, this is a counting problem rather than a statistical one. That is, when you do statistics you include a margin of error because there's a small chance that your sampled data were in the tail region of the normal distribution. However, with vote counting, for each ballot there's a small probability p that you miscount the vote somehow, either by dropping votes or giving them to the opposite candidate. I'm curious as to what the typical value of p is.
Norm Coleman NOOOOOOOOOOrosiedeeNovember 6 2008, 01:16:50 UTC
Oh, crap. I am calling my straight-DFL-ticket-voting mother, who told me she couldn't stomach either candidate and just declined to vote on that race. (Well, she declined by voting for the independent candidate, but I'm not certain she liked his, either.)
I don't see that many people walking around on the streets grumbling yet. The most I've heard of it is the MPR local radio angry interview with the guy in charge of the final tally. I really have no idea how or when this one is going to end. With voter turnout at 78% in the state, it isn't like people are going to shrug and go home. Runoff?
going to recount. no way Franken's lawyers won't push for that. It works to something 1 vote/8-9 districts difference between the two candidates - the classic situation in which to demand a recount.
A recount is free in MN if it is less than 0.5% margin, so undoubtably yes. If it is over 1% the candidate has to pay for the recount, but it is still possible.
Comments 8
Reply
Reply
Reply
Reply
Reply
Reply
Reply
Reply
Leave a comment