Пророк популизма
PATRICK CADDELL: I just want to say because this man is a raving narcissist. He has absolutely...
SEAN HANNITY: This is your president, Pat. You're saying he's a raging narcissist?
CADDELL: He's a raging narcissist who has no grip on reality. What he's been doing -- he has been doing which is that I'm king and I can rule like king and the Republicans, I have to say, before lay down for him.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/11/10/pat_caddell_obama_a_raging_narcissist_who_has_no_grip_on_reality.html
Такими словами легендарный политтехнолог Патрик Кадделл, подсказавший Трампу фразу "враги народа" в адрес прессы, описывал президента Барака Обаму.
Кадделл умер в этом году. Его судьба в политике удивительна как на фоне гениальных республиканских политтехнологов вроде Ли Этуотера и Артура Финкельштейна, так и на фоне перебежчиков в правый лагерь вроде Дэвида Горовица.
Молодым студентом Кадделл работал в провальной избирательной кампании демократичекого кандидата в президенты Джорджa Макговернa, проигравшего Никсону в 1972. Его следующая кампания привела к оглушительному успеху - 25-летний Кадделл стал творцом победы Джимми Картера на президентских выборах 1976.
He established his own firm, Cambridge Survey Research, to conduct political campaigns. Although he spun off another company, Cambridge Reports, to advise corporate clients, he was criticized for capitalizing on his Washington connections - representing, among other clients, nuclear energy companies and the Saudi Arabian government - especially when, during the Carter administration, he became known as the president’s pollster.
Campaign staffs are not known for sharing credit, but in June 1976, when Mr. Carter had secured the Democratic nomination, his campaign manager, Hamilton Jordan, confidently told a reporter: “You know why Jimmy Carter is going to be president? Because of Pat Caddell - it’s all because of Pat Caddell.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/16/obituaries/patrick-caddell-dead.html
Секретов было два. Первый - систематическое использование опросов с тем, чтобы максимизировать эффективность кампании. Кадделл занялся опросами по совету старших товарищей (конкретно Гэри Харта) во время избирателной кампании Макговернa и стал первопроходцем в этом деле.
Второй - популизм. Это превратилось в единственную, но выигрышную стратегию, которой Кадделл неизменно пользовался затем во всех своих кампаниях, вплоть до Трампа. Для победы популистского кандидата необходимо накопить резервуар недоверия избирателей к властным элитам. Если потом приходит кандидат со стороны с обещанием навести порядок, и если известно, что элиты ни за что не хотят, чтобы за этого кандидата голосовали, то выбор становится прост и понятен.
Из статьи 1987 года:
Caddell believes the key to winning contemporary elections is appealing to “alienated” voters-that ever-growing group of mostly younger voters who are not easily identified as liberal or conservative and don’t trust government, politicians, or the parties. You can’t lure these voters with programs and stands on specific issues, so the theory goes. Rather, you must remain as uncommitted as they are. You lure them by attacking that which caused their alienation: the Establishment.
https://washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/october-1987/the-powers-that-shouldnt-be/
В 1976 народное недовольство вашингтонскими элитами было связано с Уотергейтом и решением Форда помиловать Никсона.
Добившись успеха на выборах 1976, Кадделл оказался, однако, никудышным советником и способствовал падению популярности Картера, которое привело к его поражению в 1980. Это не помешало ему работать затем в других избирательных кампаниях, включая Мондейла в 1984, и помогать демократам добиваться успеха на выборах. Особенно сблизился он с молодым сенатором Джо Байденом.
Biden maintains that he must touch the voters' souls first, then provide policy specifics. President Reagan "has appealed at the level of values" and put policy second, Biden said, while Democrats have gone at it the other way around.
He also insists that the self-criticism must continue. His close friend and adviser, Democratic pollster Patrick Caddell, agrees.
"Joe and I both take the approach: first on your knees, then salvation," Caddell said. "You've got to sting people first. You've got to move them and touch their consciences."
Biden and Caddell have been friends for 14 years. "Sometimes it's hard to know where Pat's thinking stops and mine begins," Biden said. In late 1983, Caddell urged Biden to run against Reagan and he nearly did, backing out at the last minute.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1986/03/03/scolding-on-the-stump-sen-biden-lectures-fellow-democrats/4aeab20c-1987-4514-92de-64d36bb37dc1/
Президентская избирательная кампания Байдена в 1988, в которой Кадделл играл центральную роль, оказалась непоправимо хаотичной и быстро закончилась в скандалах с плагиатом. Байден вернулся в Сенат, где через несколько лет ему предстояло, в качестве председателя юридической комиссии, возглавить слушания с Анитой Хилл для утверждения Кларенса Томаса в верховные судьи.
В 1992 Кадделл работал на избирательную кампанию Джерри Брауна, который был ближайшим конкурентом Билла Клинтона на демократических праймериз, вплоть до съезда демократов. О цинизме, который развился у Кадделла в процессе этой работы, свидетельствует то, что в интервью 1992 года он перечисляет через запятую Дэвида Дюка, Берни Сандерса и Дайэн Файнстайн в качестве политиков-популистов, которые апеллируют к избирателям, недовольным статус кво.
When Jerry Brown decries politicians’ addiction to money, or talks of the need to “take back our government,” he is playing a tune Caddell composed. The pollster wrote much of the speech Brown delivered last October when announcing his candidacy in Philadelphia, and Caddell is credited with helping Brown identify many of the themes he’s using to appeal to alienated, disaffected voters. <...>
Question: What’s going on in the country? There’s obviously a tremendous amount of frustration with politics and politicians. What do you sense is happening in the minds of the electorate?
Answer: Politics is disconnected from the country. We were already seeing signs of protest in 1990--David Duke, Dianne Feinstein, Clayton Williams (of Texas) and Bernie Sanders (of Vermont) were all supping out of the same pot. And it wasn’t about ideology. For the last 25 years, the politicians in this country have presided over a decline, and it is impossible for them to acknowledge it. Because to change, to turn the country toward what has to be done, they would first have to tell the truth. And to do that would be to risk their own power, because, in a democracy, that means standing up and saying, “We have failed.” And the track record of people who do that is not very good. So the Democratic Party lives a lie, the Washington Establishment lives a lie: “Nothing’s really wrong, don’t worry about the $400-million deficit, just elect us.”
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-04-05-op-762-story.html
Click to viewПосле поражения Брауна Кадделл перешел в число клинтононенавистников, помогал Россу Перо в 1996, а затем окончательно оставил карьеру демократического политтехнолога. Проживая в Калифорнии, он консультировал создателей голивудского фильма Bulworth (1998) об отвязном сенаторе и президентском кандидате, a также телесериала Аарона Соркина The West Wing (1999).
Позже Роджер Эйлс привлек Кадделла в качестве частого гостя на Fox News, вначале в качестве дежурного демократа, а после уже комментатора, мало отличимого от других постояльцев телеканала.
В 2012 Кадделл сошелся с Дэвидом Босси и Стивом Бэнноном для работы над документальным фильмом "The Hope & The Change" (на деньги Citizens United), который был призван подкосить шансы Обамы на переизбрание.
Caddell and Bannon made an unholy alliance, but they had things in common: both men were Irish Catholic sons of the South, scourges to their respective parties, and prone to apocalyptic pronouncements. “We hit it off right away,” Caddell told me. “We’re both revolutionaries.” Bannon was excited by Caddell’s polling research, and he persuaded Citizens United to hire Caddell to convene focus groups of disillusioned Obama supporters. Many of these voters became the central figures of “The Hope & the Change,” an anti-Obama film that Bannon and Citizens United released during the 2012 Democratic National Convention. After Caddell saw the film, he pointed out to Bannon that its opening imitated that of “Triumph of the Will,” the 1935 ode to Hitler, made by the Nazi filmmaker Leni Riefenstahl. Bannon laughed and said, “You’re the only one that caught it!” In both films, a plane flies over a blighted land, as ominous music swells; then clouds in the sky part, auguring a new era. The disappointed voters in the film “seared into me,” Bannon said, the fact that middle-class Americans badly wanted change, and could be lured away from the Democratic Party if they felt that they had been conned.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/03/27/the-reclusive-hedge-fund-tycoon-behind-the-trump-presidency
Несмотря на провал фильма, дружба с Бэнноном продолжилась, и Кадделл стал другом и частым гостем в Breitbart.
В 2013 на деньги миллиардера Ли Ханли из Hanley Petroleum Кадделл провел привычный для него опрос, чтобы замерить настроения избирателей и понять, насколько они готовы к популистскому кандидату. В качестве кандидата для оценки участникам опроса предлагался Мистер Смит, как бы из фильма Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, но без какого-либо обозначения его политической ориентации. Результат превзошел самые смелые ожидания.
In his polling, Caddell had tested a hypothetical Candidate Smith, whom he didn’t identify by party, age, race, or religion. He only said of him:
Candidate Smith’s beliefs are not based on liberal or conservative ideas, just fundamental American common sense. Smith says we can’t change anything with the usual politics, the usual politicians, and the usual interest groups. We need new leaders from mainstream America, like Candidate Smith, who take on the political elites and special interests, and put the American people in charge again.
Smith’s “favorable/unfavorable” numbers after reading that paragraph to voters was 77 percent favorable and only 11 percent unfavorable. Lee Hanley, the conservative donor and NR friend who financed Caddell’s research, told me on the cruise that “everyone else in politics is ignoring the volcano rumbling beneath them.”
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/02/pat-caddell-pollster-foresaw-trump-victory/
Ханли и его жена начали поиски кандидата-популиста и привлекли к этому делу семейство Мерсеров.
On July Fourth weekend in 2014, members of the Mercer clan (Robert, Rebekah and her husband, Sylvain Mirochnikoff) went to visit some new friends. They traveled on Robert’s 203-foot luxury superyacht, the Sea Owl, and anchored just off the WASP enclave of Fishers Island in New York’s Long Island Sound. Their destination, a medieval-style granite castle called White Caps, towered over the shoreline. This was the summer home of Lee and Alice Hanley, Reagan conservatives who’d made their fortune in Texas oil and gas but lived mostly between Greenwich, Connecticut, and Palm Beach, Florida. Like the Mercers, the Hanleys were convinced that the American political establishment was rotten to its foundations. Unlike the Mercers, though, they were popular and vigorous socialites. They loved to entertain and to act as connectors between politicians and donors in their assorted properties, even on their private jet.
That holiday weekend, Lee Hanley revisited the subject of a poll he’d commissioned in 2013 from Pat Caddell, a longtime friend. Hanley had wanted to truly understand the mood of the country and Caddell had returned with something called the “Smith Project.” The nickname alluded to the Jimmy Stewart movie “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington,” because its results were so clear: Americans were hungry for an outsider. It didn’t matter whether the candidate came from the left or the right; voters just wanted somebody different. They had lost all faith in the ruling class-the government, the media, Wall Street. “It showed the entire blow-up of the country coming,” Caddell told me. “A whole new paradigm developing.”
https://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/mercers/
Вначале они поставили на Теда Круза, но вовремя переключились на Трампа и привели к нему Бэннона вместе с Кадделлом. Кадделл оставался в тени, но давал ценные советы. Херез 40 лет после победы Джимми Картера пришел его новый звездный час.
Кадделл с предсказанием победы Трампа за день до выборов на основе опросов, замеряющих градус запроса на популизм:
As with Jimmy Carter in 1980, Hillary Clinton is far more likely to be viewed as qualified to be president and possessing a better presidential temperament.
But the results of the latest poll are worth pondering: Here are the most interesting questions and answers. First, voters were asked to agree or disagree with following question:
For years, the political elites have governed America for their own benefit and to the detriment of the American people - this election is the best chance in our lives to take back our government. AGREE = 63% (with 46% strongly agreeing); DISAGREE = 31%
Voters were then asked the same two questions of each candidate: Which is closer to your opinion if (Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump) wins: the political elites and special interests win; the political elite and special interests lose.
By 65 percent to 35 percent voters said that if Hillary Clinton wins the political elites WIN. And by an opposite margin, the majority of voters said that by 57 percent to 43 percent the elites LOSE if Trump wins.
Significant numbers of Clinton’s own voters believe that her win is a victory for the unpopular elites and special political interests.
So the question is, if these attitudes are salient in the voters’ minds as they vote on Tuesday it could produce the biggest surprise of all in 2016.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/patrick-caddell-the-real-election-surprise-the-uprising-of-the-american-people
На похоронах Кадделла в феврале 2019 было не так много народу. Прилетел Билл Шайн, глава пресс-службы Белого дома и бывший коллега по Fox News и подруга Кадделла Энн Коултер, которая предсказывала победу Трампа еще в июне 2015.