Rosenberg: Recession 2012

[cieldumort]

Extraordinary Recession 2012 Risk

Recession 2012? David Rosenberg Keeps Count: 7
While most still hold that the risk of a new US recession in 2012 is far less than the risk of recession was in 2011, increasingly the facts simply do not support such a view.

In light of the most recent data, Gluskin-Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg finds no fewer

Comments

[sophiaserpentia]

ZeroHedge reported that the Richmond Fed index plunged to -17.

[cieldumort]

Yeah, saw that. It was not the least shocking to me. Looking under the hood of the last ISM (national manufacturing), the momentum (leading) of the New Orders (foward-looking/leading) component just fell out of bed, dropping from 60.1 (solid growth) to 47.8 (mild contraction) in June, from May.

While the contraction was mild, it was the size of the swing that is really startling. Also, it marked the first contraction in New Orders since April '09 - a month not remembered for its good times.

In addition to the drop in New Orders, Backlog Orders slid from 47.0 to 44.5 .... numbers like those are consistent with Growth Recession and/or Recession.

[hugh_mannity]

This comment at Shakesville caught my eye this morning.

"26%: The percentage of private sector workers making less than $10 an hour, according to a National Employment Law Project report (pdf

[cieldumort]

Let them eat cake.