ECRI's Recession Forecasting & The Business Cycle

[cieldumort]

At the end of last September marquee economic business cycle research and forecasting group ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) declared that a new U.S. recession was imminent, and that there would be nothing that the government, including the Federal Reserve, could do to prevent it

Comments

[sinistertim101]

This is not a recession nor typical business cycle.

We are in a depression due to debt. Banks claim they have 62 trillion in assets that are based on debt which is insane! Consumers can't afford to buy anything because credit card debt is over 1 trillion with interest rates as high as 30%, governments are devaluing currency to hide this and prevent deflation, and government debt is imploding.

With the elections in Greece and France I predict another 2008 will hit and the a depression will start as banks foreclose like dominos. This is not a market correction at all as the entire US economy is based on consumption and not production. Peter Schmidt, Ron Paul, and others have been saying this for years and rightfully predicted the 2008 crash in 2006.

Unless everyone embraces austerity and pays back what they owe no real recovery will happen. Europe is the catalyst this time as businesses can not get loans to meet demand on home because of the bond market bubble.

Save up and hold on tight everyone!

[interactiveleaf]

Hallelujah.

[cieldumort]

Embrace austerity all at once? Seriously??

I say, "Hella' fool ya'!"

[interactiveleaf]

Let it burn to the motherfucking ground and start over.

I, uh, may be in a mood.

[sinistertim101]

Manufacturing is weakening considerable, the Eurozone entered recession, and employment is slowing. Yes, these are the starts of a recession. He hasn't changed his mind at all from what I read and within the next 60 days we will find out if manufacturing halts and unemployment begins to pick up again.

Employment is always a lagging indicator. Employers fire last and hire last only if they are sure they are not needed when inventory is in excess or if they can not squeeze anymore productivity out of their existing workers to expand more.

[cieldumort]

You're welcome :)

This economy is so out of the realm of the normal business cycle, I'm pretty confident that ECRI is a wee bit more concerned about their forecasting now than at any time in their past - yeah, everyone's economic forecasting ability is being pushed to their respective limits.

[sophiaserpentia]

*shrugs* He changed his mind? If so, though, for the sake of clarity and consistency he should explain how and why his position changed.

[cieldumort]

Does he even know that it appears to have changed? lol