Many Leading Indicators Still Flashing Yellow, Gasoline Becomes Worrisome Again

[cieldumort]

Leading Indicators + Iran =
Global Recession Risk Going Higher Again
Just when you thought it was safe to say that we have probably dodged yet another economic bullet under the Obama administration - for those of you counting, the list is now 1) Averted Great Depression (2009), 2) Averted double-dip recession (2010), 3) Averted new recession (2011

Comments

[capthek]

There is a strong difference though between the oil crisis of the 70s and Iran not exporting to say Europe. Iran will still want to export as much oil as it can and the world suppy wont change because plenty of other nations will still buy Iran's oil. At the same time, as the world slowly comes out of this slow growth the price of oil will likely continue to rise due to demand increases. Of course, I am one of those crazy people who wants oil to be a little more expensive so we have a slightly less car obsessed society in theory.

Hey, I just made a crazy prediction that the unemployment rate goes below 8% next month, not impossible?

[cieldumort]

As is often the case, we disagree. But ya know what? Here's what I have learned about the two of us over the years: when it comes to guessing where the economy is going, it usually ends up somewhere right about in between our forecasts lol

Here's my general sense of things right now: If Iran continues to get backed into a corner - or at least feels it is backed into a corner - Iran will cut off supplying most of the rest of its customers as a retaliatory sanction against the US and its allies, per se. The odds of this happening? I would say about 1 in 3.

As for the global economy, imho, better than 50-50 odds 2012 is a global recession year, and maybe at least 1 in 3 that the US gets pulled back under along with it, should there indeed be another global recession.