Comments | the_recession: ECRI Weekly Leading Index Slides, Economy So-So in Q4

cieldumort in the_recession

ECRI Weekly Leading Index Slides, Economy So-So in Q4

Dec 24, 2011 02:43

Has ECRI blown it with their forecast a few months ago that the US was sliding into a new recession?

The short answer is probably not. In reality, recessions rarely begin with a very obvious falling off of the cliff. More often, initial, unrevised data is mixed, and maybe even slightly upbeat, for several months leading into and inside of new ( Read more... )

coincident indicators, definition of recovery, leading indicators, definition of recession, ecri

Comments 4

ragnarok20 December 26 2011, 19:16:53 UTC

I just want to point out that a lot of libertarian-leaning economists actually did predict exactly these problems as a result of sub-prime mortgages far prior to the collapse.

cieldumort December 27 2011, 11:41:41 UTC

A lot of economists, regardless of ideology, did predict these problems prior to 2008... but they were all in the minority... and very few of them were Republicans - mostly libertarians, liberals and neutral-types.

It wasn't impossible to see for anyone who was keeping their eyes open. I called it way back in 2001, for whatever it's worth.

ragnarok20 December 31 2011, 05:39:09 UTC

Personally, and maybe this is because of my libertarian background, I look at the housing bubble as one of the biggest issues leading to our current economic woes. What really bugs me is when people blame it on "deregulation" or "the free market" because neither really existed. To blame the crash on the free market is like blaming it on the Flying Spaghetti Market, since neither exists. The difference being that a free-market could could actually exist ( ... )

cieldumort January 2 2012, 16:11:43 UTC

Yeah. I agree with much of what you wrote - eh, probably all of it, to greater or lesser degrees ( ... )