Comments | the_recession: Ireland's Reported Emergence From Recession An Optical Illusion

cieldumort in the_recession

Ireland's Reported Emergence From Recession An Optical Illusion

Dec 17, 2009 10:28

It is being widely reported today that Ireland pulled out of recession in the third quarter, with Irish GDP rising by a greater than expected 0.3% QoQ.

Since being the first more major EU country falling into recession, Ireland has fallen into what most economists could agree is a capital "D" Depression, along with other advanced nations like ( Read more... )

ireland, iceland, spain, depression circa 2009, europe, definition of recession

Comments 13

underlankers December 17 2009, 16:30:43 UTC

Well, fuck. >.<

Sounds like the European model of capitalism is hardly any more solid than our own is. And Japan's been in the shits for a good little bit. >.< We're doomed. >.<

cieldumort December 17 2009, 16:37:39 UTC

Like I've been saying, we've all narrowly escaped a Greater Great Depression, but much of the advanced world is now mired in a "Moderated" Depression, even if most of the advanced countries have "technically" pulled out of recession, or not.

sophiaserpentia December 17 2009, 16:46:37 UTC

That the depression will be shallower than it might otherwise have been is pretty hard comfort, unfortunately. But I suppose we should take what blessings we can get.

cieldumort December 17 2009, 17:44:42 UTC

Considering that we were facing an abyss multiples worse than even the 1930s Great Depression, I count myself as damn lucky not to be living through that.

Thread 8

interactiveleaf December 18 2009, 06:28:52 UTC

Technically, given that the definition of recession is two quarters in a row of falling GDP

Gah! I just commented on this in another post in this comm, and here I run into again seconds later. This is not "the definition of" a recession. It's one of the many yardsticks and rules of thumb that the NBER uses. The only "technical definition" of a recession is "whatever the NBER defines as a recession."

cieldumort December 18 2009, 15:42:26 UTC

NBER's definition is only the gold standard here in the US. Elsewhere, most countries actually do use the two consecutive quarters of negative GDP as the definition. So in Ireland, they are "technically" out of recession.

cieldumort December 18 2009, 15:46:49 UTC

* Should add that Europe does increasingly defer their recession calls to the NBER sister organization, CEPR, which does rely on NBER-style defs. http://www.cepr.org/data/dating/info6.asp

interactiveleaf December 18 2009, 15:54:01 UTC

Oh, of course you're right. I was being all Ameri-centric there; sorry. :(

Thread 5