Comments | the_recession: The Battle of the Indicators: "Traditional" vs. "This Time"

cieldumort in the_recession

The Battle of the Indicators: "Traditional" vs. "This Time"

Aug 29, 2009 03:38

The uber perma-bears out there keep holding on to the notion that this recession is so different, it simply can not recover despite traditional leading indicators flashing a massive recovery that while in its very early stages is now already underway (that is not hyperbole that the Leading Indicator Indexes are suggesting this).

I've sometimes ( Read more... )

recoveries, consumer confidence, leading indicators, deflation, savings rate, ecri, wage deflation

Comments 6

nebris August 29 2009, 09:33:01 UTC

Two things:

We've shipped too much of our industry overseas. We consume, but do not produce. And we've burned out our 'equity'.

The two wars we've got going are costing us about $100 billion a year, which we borrow from China and the Saudis.

This is unsustainable. And the insanity around health care and the like is crippling the political process.

I say L.

~M~

cieldumort August 30 2009, 11:17:46 UTC

Can't have a total "L" when we're already climbing up the ride side of a "V" this quarter...

Where's The Vee? theheretic August 30 2009, 16:40:33 UTC

Are you sure that's a V? If an L is tied to Inflation, it may look like a V superficially, but its still an L when measured in real values. Think about the prices at the supermarket. Its $8 for a can of shortening. That can cost $3 a couple years ago. That's inflation, right there. Look at your food prices and average the change and you have a real inflation rate, in real terms for the majority of the population ( ... )

Re: Where's The Vee? cieldumort August 31 2009, 04:55:27 UTC

Housing prices are actually drastically underweighted in the official government CPI stats... you wanna talk inflation.. you have to first consider that a can of shortening might sell as frequently as a house or condo or commercial property, but is another galaxy as far as impact on -real world- inflation (deflation) rates.

The world is caught up in a deflation, not inflation.

ankh_f_n_khonsu August 29 2009, 14:53:23 UTC

Sorry, saying there is a "massive recovery" underway sounds a lot more like hyperbole than insight.

cieldumort August 30 2009, 11:16:48 UTC

Just to be perfectly clear: I am not saying a "massive recovery" is currently underway ... the leading indicators are saying a massive recovery, albeit in its very early stages, is now underway.

Obviously, I do not agree very much with what those leading indicators suggest.